Independent campaign expenditures surged big time in state races

Independent campaign expenditures have skyrocketed this year in state legislative races.

All of these numbers were current as of Friday, at 4:20 p.m., when I finished writing this column. Independent expenditure committees are not allowed to coordinate their spending with candidates, ergo the "independent" label. As with the federal level, they are also not limited in how much they can spend on any state or local races.

Total spending, including the race for the open state comptroller position, was at $5.5 million for the calendar year.

Two years ago, independent expenditures in legislative primaries totaled a bit over $500,000, and half of that was because the Illinois Education Association was almost fully funding a couple of Republicans running against far-right Illinois Freedom Caucus members. We had no statewide races here in 2022.

During the first primary season after the decennial redistricting four years ago, the independent expenditures totaled about $2 million in legislative races, when tons of open seats existed. The spending back then was dominated by INCS Action, a pro-charter schools independent expenditures committee with large contributions from the founding family of Walmart. An additional $500,000 or so was spent by a Ken Griffin-backed independent expenditures committee on two down-ballot statewide Republican primary races (attorney general and secretary of state) — and the beneficiaries of that spending both lost (Steve Kim and John Milhiser).

In other words, the current spending is without precedent.

The DraftKings-funded American Future committee has alone reported spending $2.6 million on ten state legislative races. Often, legislative campaign mail programs switch to all-positive during the final week of the campaign. But the online sports betting company was still churning out negative mail as I wrote this.

None of the independent expenditure committees that we tracked had yet to attack an incumbent as of this writing. They were either defending those already in office or using positive messaging and also some negative messaging to try and pick someone who is running for a vacant seat.

The online sports betting company doesn’t care for Illinois’ high taxes, so they apparently decided to do something about it, spending $577,000 to boost Sen. Emil Jones III, D-Chicago, and attack his Democratic opponent Ahmed Karrar. It has reported spending $468K backing its former statehouse lobbyist Adam Braun in the 13th House District and whacking one of his well-funded challengers James O'Brien.

The gaming company’s committee has also spent $364,000 supporting Rep. Jaime Andrade, D-Chicago, and opposing his progressive opponent Miguel Alvelo Rivera. It has plunked down $308,000 to support Shantel Franklin in an open seat House contest on the city’s West Side; $291,000 supporting Aja Kearney in the 34th House district race; and $252,000 supporting Saba Haider and attacking Jared Ploger in the 84th House District. Ploger is getting most of his direct contributions from teachers unions, while Haider is heavily backed by trade unions.

The Common Ground Collective independent expenditure committee is fronted by Chicago billionaire Michael Sacks. It had $1.7 million, of which $1.35 million went to Rep. Margaret Croke, who is running for state comptroller against three other Democrats. The incumbent Susana Mendoza isn’t running again.

The independent expenditure committee’s legislative focus is almost entirely on Andrade’s Northwest Side race. It had spent $346,000 supporting Andrade and opposing Miguel Alvelo Rivera, mainly over his failure to vote in a couple of elections and for criticizing the Democratic Party.

Facebook’s parent company Meta has a committee named Making Our Tomorrow which had spent $561,000, mostly on two races. The above-mentioned Adam Braun has benefited from $172,000 in Meta spending and Paul Kendrick in the crowded 12th House District race received $230,000 in independent expenditures.

Other groups spending money are the pro-charter school INCS Action ($240,000), the Illinois Realtors ($$202,000) and Americans for Prosperity Illinois, which put $157,000 into Republican primary races.

Some wonder whether this primary race spending is just a test, and whether gigantic companies like DraftKings and Meta will eventually unleash on incumbents during future contests. Meta has pledged to stay positive. But that could change.

It’s just too early to tell what sort of impact this legislative campaign spending will have on the statehouse. We won’t really know until after the votes are counted. But legislators generally loathe having to deal with primary opponents. Add in the possibility that some rando is adopted by a billionaire or a special interest, and that loathing could turn to fear.

Rich Miller also publishes Capitol Fax, a daily political newsletter, and CapitolFax.com.