Cracketology: Another 48 Hours

Photo by Morgan Givens | University of Oklahoma

We're drawing closer to the NCAA Selection Show. As I write this, we are two days out from seeing the full bracket. So where do things stand? Let's dig in with a quick look at the biggest questions facing the Selection Committee between now and Sunday.

Who are the most likely bid thieves?

• Atlantic 10 - Dayton: Over the last month, the Flyers are playing like the best team in the A-10, ranked #27 in T-Rank ahead of #40 VCU. Included in that stretch is a decisive win over St. Louis, who they play in Saturday's semifinal.
• Big East - Seton Hall: By the time you read this, the Pirates may be done, but if they can get by St. John's (they played within single digits twice), the Pirates have a win over UConn each year since the Huskies rejoined the Big East.
• MAC - Akron: The MAC is guaranteed to have a bid thief with Miami (OH) eliminated, and the Zips were the metric favorite to win the automatic bid from the start. They defeated the three remaining semifinalists by an average of 13.0 ppg in the regular season.
• Mountain West - San Diego State: The Aztecs are favored over New Mexico, but whomever wins that game will be the best shot at a bid thief. It's likely too late for either to earn an at-large, so the only path to a second Mountain West bid is if Utah State loses.
• SEC - Oklahoma: The Sooners are getting some late at-large buzz, but it's reminiscent of 2022 Texas A&M, who also had a long January into February losing streak only to try to make up for that in the SEC Tournament. I think it's automatic bid or bust for Oklahoma.

Who will land on the right side of the bubble?

• In - Missouri: The Tigers might be sweating with some bid thieves, but they have five wins over the field including beating Florida. They also have wins over the two closest SEC contenders, Auburn and Oklahoma. They should hear their name on Selection Sunday.
• In - SMU: The Mustangs are in, but bid thieves could certainly knock them out. Their four Q1 wins and 45 WAB should be enough, but all it would take is a few bid thieves to knock them out.
• Barely In - VCU: The Rams would be well-suited to make bracketologists lives easier by winning the A-10 auto bid. Their 39 resume average and 42 WAB is appealing, but they don't have any wins over another at-large team in the field, with neutral court wins over South Florida and Virginia Tech along with a road win at Dayton the highlights of their resume. If there's another 1-2 bid thieves and VCU doesn't punch their own ticket, they could easily be left out.
• Barely In - Texas: The Longhorns are only 17-14, a mark that rarely makes the field, but they have 6 wins over at-large teams in the field. Their WAB of 46 is as bubbly as can be and they are quite simply the best of a group of not great options. 
• Barely Out - Oklahoma: If you put Oklahoma's resume up against the rest of the bubble with no context, they might be in over VCU or Texas. But wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M came in the SEC Tournament and it's hard to know how much those will be valued. No one had this team in 48 hours ago, not sure I can get there because of two wins since then.
• Barely Out - San Diego State/New Mexico: These teams are the Spider-Man meme. Separated by 1 in NET, 1 in WAB, both are 2-6 in Q1, have 8 Q1+2 wins, and have losses in Q3. I just don't think either have quite done enough. They likely need the auto-bid.
• Out - Auburn: Yes, they played a tough schedule and won some big games. However they also have 16 losses and are one game above a .500 record. No team has ever made the at-large field with that many losses or that poor a winning percentage. They had chances and didn't make the most of them.

What is Miami-Ohio's Fate?

Where the Redhawks land is one of the most debated conversations at the moment. Despite their loss to UMass, that was still a Q3 loss and while it will prevent them from moving up, we're going to stick with their resume average of 39.7 and as a result they landed on the 10-line as the 40th overall team. The seed was primarily based on two factors.

First, last year's Memphis had a 17.0 resume average and a 52.3 predictive average. Typically, the average of those two would predict the seed, with a slight weighting advantage to the predictives, which would suggest Memphis should've been an 8 or 9 seed. Instead, the Selection Committee followed their resume average and gave them a 5-seed. Second, this team started 31-0 and there's no way that a team with a 31-1 record should be at risk of having to play a game in Dayton just to get to the Thursday/Friday games.

With that in mind, the Redhawks have a 39.7 resume average and a 91.0 predictive average. I'm throwing out the predictives like the Committee did for Memphis last year and strictly following their resume average for a 10-seed. Even if there are four more bid thieves, I think Miami should be above Dayton, no matter what line they land on.

At this point, I'm not sure if it's surprising or just the universe trying to tell me something that following the bracketing principles, Miami (OH) is once again facing Miami (FL), this time because the Redhawks were the last 10-seed placed and the only opening was against the Hurricanes. Suppose at some point, you just have to lean into the bit.

Okay...here's the current Seed List and Bracket. It's primarily based on Thursday's results, but nothing today has significantly changed that, if anything it reinforced what we already had, largely thanks to the Wisconsin win over Illinois.

Multi-bid Leagues

SEC: 10

Big 10: 9

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

WCC: 3

A-10: 2

MAC: 2