Is Labour in ‘deep trouble’ with Black voters? What the evidence tells us

Before each general election in the late 1990s and early 2000s, campaign group Operation Black Vote used to publish a list of the most ethnically diverse constituencies in the UK. These were the areas in which the size of the non-white population exceeded the size of the incumbent party’s majority. The idea was to persuade political parties to campaign in these places and to think about what they were offering to ethnic minority voters.

Operation Black Vote, which was founded in 1996 to empower voters from ethnic minority backgrounds, had good reason to worry. Both anecdotal and academic research shows that ethnic minority voters had been largely taken for granted by the Labour party.

As an example, the prominent Labour politician Roy Hattersley wrote candidly about the minority vote contributing to his 1974 re-election as an MP for Birmingham Sparkbrook: “I won with an increased majority, the well-organised and invariably loyal Kashmiris had cast their disciplined vote early in the day.”

Unsurprisingly, this “invariably loyal” vote led to minority voters reporting less contact from parties during election campaigns.

With support for Labour almost always in the region of 70% to 80% across most Asian and Black voter groups, the fact that David Weaver, the chairman of Operation Black Vote, has now said that Labour is in “deep trouble” with Black voters is therefore remarkable.

Indian and Muslim voters are already leaving

Historically, different ethnic groups had differing levels of support for Labour but even in the fragmented 2024 general election, it remained the most popular choice for British Black and Asian voters. However, this is a far cry from Labour being able to take this vote for granted. Two recent developments should give the party particular pause.

First, Indian-origin Britons have already started drifting away from Labour. Their movement towards the Conservatives has been slow but steady since 2010. The continuous nature of this defection suggests that there is little Labour could do to reverse it. While in 2024 a plurality of British Indians still chose Labour, this is the lowest vote share the party has received from this group in any recorded general election.

Second, and perhaps more alarming, is a break in the traditional loyalty among British Muslims that characterised the 2024 general election. Labour voting among this group collapsed by almost 30% and delivered a handful of independent MPs to parliament. Some took Labour’s historically safe seats, mostly on pro-Gaza tickets.

More recently, these voters moved towards the Green party in the 2026 byelection in Gorton and Denton. It is this choice that represents a new and particularly threatening issue for Labour. As a result of the general fragmentation of the party system, ethnic minority voters now seem to have alternative choices, and feel freer to opt for them.

Muslim voters defected from Labour in 2005 over the Iraq war but the resulting protest vote for the Liberal Democrats was short-lived. By 2010 the Muslim vote for Labour had recovered.

The contrast with today’s vote switching and record support for small parties is stark. With more viable options on the ballot, it is not inconceivable that many Muslim voters may not return to Labour.

Could Black voters follow?

While Black voters remained the most loyal group in 2024, they too might feel a little freer to go. Even the historically no-go option for Black voters, the Conservative party, might seem like a possibility. In a significant departure from their traditional approach, the Tories have been making an effort to tackle race and inequality. They commissioned a major review of racial disparities, increased their ethnic diversity in Parliament and delivered the historically most ethnically diverse cabinet to date. It is worth noting that the current leader Kemi Badenoch and her predecessor Rishi Sunak are both of ethnic minority origin.

Labour is yet to appoint a non-white leader. And its record in government is certainly doing very little to dissuade minority voters from looking elsewhere.

Among the failures that could count against them with Black voters are a continuation of the unpopular “hostile environment” immigration policy and an aggressive curtailment of settlement policies. These are unlikely to play well with a group that had already fallen victim to the previous government’s similar policies via the Windrush scandal. Labour’s ineffective implementation of the compensation scheme for the victims of this scandal, who were most likely to identify as British Black Caribbean, only compounds this issue.

More recently, the issue of justice has emerged as a major divide between Labour and its Black supporters. The history of racial inequalities in the justice system is long and trust in judicial institutions among Black Britons is deservedly low. Given this, the current proposals to abolish jury trials could be seen as a betrayal of trust. The proposal is intended to deal with the backlog in the courts but the evidence shows juries reduce discrimination in trials. Black voters report law and order as the most important issue – far more than the other ethnic minority voters – so this is clearly not going to go unnoticed.

Given the lack of action and progress on other important issues for the Black community, such as child poverty and the cost-of-living crisis, Labour should really worry about losing not just their Muslim voters, and the Indian origin minority, but also its most loyal Black voters too. They truly cannot and should not take any of these groups for granted.

Maria Sobolewska received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.