The Week Ahead (16-20 Mar): Iran War, energy prices amp; interest rates

Welcome back to The Week Ahead. After a turbulent week in markets and geopolitics, I suspect there is a good chance that anything I write here will be outdated by the start of next week.
As things stand, the stock market reaction so far has been relatively modest. With the FTSE 100 down by 5% since the US launched its attack on Iran, we are certainly nowhere near a crash:

*Market close on 12/03/26
While a 5% drop in two weeks may feel slightly uncomfortable, it’s probably worth remembering that the FTSE 100 is still up by nearly 20% on a one-year view at the time of writing, as is the Samp;P 500. European indices have fared a little worse:

Another indicator highlighting the relatively muted stock market reaction so far is the VIX volatility index, which reflects US market conditions. Although volatility has risen since the end of February, it remains well below the levels seen during last April’s tariff tantrum:
Energy winners vs losers?
One reason for the recent underperformance of the UK and European indices may be that these regions are seen...