Fears of Pak-Afghan hostilities causing spike in polio cases as majority of environmental samples test negative

ISLAMABAD: Data from Pakistan’s Polio Eradication Programme shows that a majority of the environmental samples for poliovirus, which causes the crippling disease, collected during the first two months of 2026 have tested negative.

Moreover, a comparison of the first two months of 2025 with the current year shows a more than threefold reduction in positive environmental samples. However, ongoing Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions could create an opportunity for the virus to rebound during the upcoming high-transmission season, which may begin next month.

According to a document from the Polio Eradication Programme, available with Dawn, 111 environmental samples out of 126 tested negative across the country in February.

It is worth noting that sewage samples are a key indicator of whether polio vaccination campaigns are being carried out successfully. After samples are detected, polio campaigns are launched in the area to eradicate the virus. A polio case can be reported in any city due to the frequent movement of people, but the presence of the virus in sewage samples indicates that the vaccination campaign in the area did not meet its target. The presence of the virus in sewage also indicates that the immunity of local children has declined and that they are at risk of the disease.

Yearly comparison shows that 39 positive environmental samples were reported in the first two months of 2026, compared with 144 in the first two months of 2025 nationwide. Similarly, six children were paralysed during the first two months of last year. However, only one child has contracted the virus during the first two months of the current year.

The document also shows encouraging numbers: in Balochistan, 11 environmental samples tested positive, compared with 38 in 2025. In Punjab, only one positive sample has been reported, compared with 27 in 2025.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s data shows that during the first two months of the ongoing year, six positive environmental samples have been reported. During the same two months of 2025, as many as 26 positive samples were reported. Similarly, in Sindh, 27 positive environmental samples have been reported this year; last year as many as 50 positive environmental samples were reported during the first two months.

A polio expert, who wished to remain anonymous, said that the current data showed that the virus could be completely stopped during the ongoing year.

“However, a major concern is that the virus can bounce back due to the current Pakistan-Afghanistan tensions. In southern KP, almost 120,000 children are being missed due to security reasons and that pocket can provide an opportunity for the virus to bounce back,” he said.

Moreover, some areas lack drainage systems, making it impossible to collect environmental samples there. The virus can again start circulating from there,” he warned.

The expert said that the high transmission season may begin next month, so the polio programme needed to be on its toes to ensure that the situation did not get out of hand.

The polio virus is less active when the temperature is lower. The high transmission season runs from the last week of April or the start of May through September.

Speaking to Dawn, Pakistan Polio Programme head Anwarul Haq said that Pakistan was finally receiving positive news — that the virus present in the environment had started to decline across the country.

“Most of Waziristan, apart from North Waziristan, has been declared polio negative. We have been trying to make sure that there is more focus on routine immunisation so that the immunity levels of children increase,” he said.

He also said that there had been a reduction in cases in Karachi.

“In Punjab, only one positive environmental sample has been reported and the situation is also improving in Balochistan. We are aiming to stop the transmission of the virus during the ongoing year,” he said.