President Trump's economy is a failure of his own making

As a candidate, President Donald Trump promised to "create millions and millions of jobs, massively raise wages for American workers, and make the United States into a manufacturing powerhouse like it used to be many years ago."

More than a year in, the Trump economy is an explicit failure, with conditions ominously reminiscent of the months leading up to the Great Recession of 2008. The difference is that the Great Recession was precipitated by a global financial crisis. The current downturn is the result of the administration’s own policy decisions, including tariffs, immigration restrictions and government workforce reductions.

From day one, the second Trump administration began destabilizing the labor market, presiding over a stunning collapse in federal employment.

The Department of Government Efficiency — charged with shrinking the federal workforce — oversaw the elimination of more than 62,530 federal jobs in just the first two months of 2025, a staggering 41,311% increase in federal layoffs compared with the previous year, according to the website Human Resources Director, which looks at hiring trends. These cuts didn’t simply trim bureaucracy — they decimated entire agencies, hollowed out public services and sent shock waves through communities dependent on federal employment.

The job losses did not stop in Washington, D.C. Federal contract cancellations and funding freezes created collateral damage, prompting layoffs across the private sector. Technology firms, nonprofits and service providers found themselves suddenly cut off from long-standing federal contracts and grants. Private employers cited the "DOGE impact" as the reason for 63,583 layoffs, showing clearly how reckless cuts spilled into the broader economy.

Where’s the hiring boom?

Rather than ushering in a hiring boom, the U.S. economy has racked up months of job losses. The nation lost a stunning 92,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, with the increase entirely at the expense of Americans of color.

While the white unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7%, the Black, Latino and Asian rates all rose — with the Black rate more than double the white rate at 7.7%. With revisions showing a loss of 17,000 jobs in December, total job growth over the last 14 months has been just 150,000 — a sharp contrast to the 1.74 million jobs added in the 14 months prior.

This is not the record of a president creating "millions and millions" of new jobs — it is the record of a labor market stifled by federal decisions.

Trump also promised to "massively raise wages," but here again, the results fall far short. To be sure, wages have risen — but only modestly.

Average hourly earnings increased 3.8% year‑over‑year by this February, and weekly wages rose 4.3% year‑over‑year. These gains are not insignificant, but they are nowhere near the sweeping wage transformation Trump promised. In fact, much of the improvement in real wages owes to falling inflation — down from 3% when Trump took office to 2.4% by January — rather than to rapid wage acceleration. That wage growth, such as it is, is largely offset by soaring costs: Electricity is up 6.3%, medical care is up 3.2%, and housing continues to rise.

Nowhere is the distance between promise and performance greater than in manufacturing. Far from restoring America’s industrial might, manufacturing employment instead has declined. The sector lost 12,000 jobs in February alone, defying economists’ expectations of gains. Manufacturers shed 42,000 jobs between April 2025 and August 2025, and total manufacturing employment fell by 33,000 jobs in 2025 — hardly the profile of a “manufacturing powerhouse.”

Tariff strategy misfires

The administration’s tariffs strategy has massively backfired. John Deere reported $300 million in tariff‑related costs before laying off hundreds of workers. Tariff uncertainty prompted companies to pause investment and reduce hiring, while retaliatory trade actions weakened U.S. export competitiveness. Rather than strengthening manufacturing, a reckless and unstable environment is eating away at profits and crushing small businesses.

The broader economic picture is equally concerning. Gross domestic product growth fell from 4.4% in the third quarter of 2025 to just 1.4% in the fourth quarter, dragged down by federal spending cuts, shutdowns and trade disruptions. For the full year, GDP grew only 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, representing the weakest annual expansion in nine years, excluding the pandemic. This slowdown is the result of a federal policy environment that works against economic expansion, not in service of it.

Instead of a jobs boom, the country has seen policy‑driven layoffs. Instead of massive wage growth, workers have experienced modest gains overshadowed by inflation in essential categories. Instead of a manufacturing renaissance, factory jobs have plummeted.

Campaign rhetoric is easy. Governing is harder. But when a president pledges an economic transformation and delivers chaos and catastrophe instead, voters and workers deserve to see the truth plainly: The administration’s policies have not only fallen short — they have actively undermined the economic agenda Trump promised to build.

Marc H. Morial is president and CEO of the National Urban League and was mayor of New Orleans from 1994 to 2002.