Cancer deaths fall to historic low in UK – this is probably why

Good news: cancer death rates in the UK have fallen to their lowest level on record.

According to the latest statistics from Cancer Research UK, between 2022 and 2024 around 247 people per 100,000 died from cancer each year in the UK. This is down from a peak of 355 deaths per 100,000 in 1989 – a decline of nearly 29%. Researchers say the long-term drop reflects decades of investment in cancer research, prevention and treatment.

Much of this progress comes from major improvements in several common cancers. Over the past ten years, deaths from stomach cancer have fallen by 34%, while lung cancer deaths have dropped by 22%. Ovarian cancer deaths declined by 19%, breast cancer by 14% and prostate cancer by 11%.

These gains reflect several factors working together. Advances in cancer screening, a growing range of new and effective treatments, and earlier diagnosis have all played a role in improving survival.

In prostate cancer, for example, breakthroughs in hormone-based therapies have helped slow tumour growth. Perhaps the most dramatic improvement has been in cervical cancer, where deaths have fallen by 75% since the 1970s. This is largely due to national screening programmes and the introduction of the HPV vaccine.

A major driver of falling cancer deaths has been screening. The NHS cervical screening programme has been particularly effective, detecting cancers at very early stages, and often identifying pre-cancerous changes before cancer develops.

The success of the HPV vaccine, introduced in 2008 and now given to millions of people, has strengthened this progress by preventing infections that can trigger the cellular mutations leading to cervical cancer.

Screening has also improved outcomes in other cancers. Programmes for breast and colorectal cancer help detect disease earlier, when treatment is more likely to succeed. Similarly, the introduction of PSA testing has improved detection of prostate cancer.

At the same time, advances in cancer research have transformed treatment options. Targeted therapies and personalised medicine are increasingly common, allowing doctors to tailor treatment to the biology of an individual patient’s tumour. Hormone therapies that block testosterone, for instance, have significantly improved outcomes in prostate cancer.

Immunotherapy is also advancing rapidly. Researchers are exploring preventive vaccines for cancers such as lung and ovarian cancer, raising the possibility that some cancers could eventually be prevented before they even develop.

Public health measures have also played a role. Policies such as smoking bans, alongside greater awareness of cancer risk factors, have contributed to falling death rates for several major cancers.

However, it is worth noting that while cancer death rates are falling, the total number of people dying from cancer is still rising. This is largely because the UK population is growing and people are living longer.

As we age, mutations and cellular damage accumulate, increasing the risk of cancer. The rise in deaths from some cancer types is now prompting researchers to focus more attention on these diseases. Many are linked to late-stage diagnosis, because symptoms often appear only once the disease is advanced. Expanding research and clinical trials in these areas could make a significant difference.

The cancers bucking the trend

Some cancers have actually seen deaths rise over the past decade. Deaths from skin, intestinal, bone, gallbladder and eye cancers have increased by 46%, 48%, 24%, 29% and 26%, respectively. Liver cancer deaths have risen by 14%, while kidney cancer deaths are up by 5%.

There are probably several reasons for these increases. Some cancers are harder to detect early, while others have fewer effective treatments. Lifestyle factors may also be contributing, including greater use of tanning beds and diets high in ultra-processed food. Meanwhile, mortality rates for cancers such as thyroid and pancreatic cancer, as well as some skin cancers, have remained largely unchanged.

Even so, the overall trend remains encouraging. Experts believe that with continued investment in research, clinical trials and NHS capacity, cancer mortality could fall further. Current projections suggest a decrease in death rates of around 6% between 2024-26 and 2038-40 within the next two decades.

While challenges remain, the latest figures highlight what sustained investment in research, prevention and treatment can achieve. As screening improves, therapies advance and prevention expands, further progress against cancer may be within reach.

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.