SA warns of economic shock as Iran war expands

Nearly two weeks after the United States and  Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran,  the war is widening across the Middle East, drawing neighbouring states into the fight- ing, rattling global energy markets  and exposing deep fractures in the international system.

Israeli air strikes have continued inside Iran while Tehran has  retaliated against US military assets across the region. The escalation has now spread into Gulf waters and along Israel’s northern frontier, raising fears that the conflict could evolve into a prolonged regional war  with far-reaching economic and diplomatic consequences.

Even limited disruption in the strait has historically been enough to rattle global markets and the prospect of sustained instability has heightened concerns about a wider economic shock.  

The war has also widened geographically.  Iranian missile and drone strikes have targeted installations linked to US forces in several Gulf states, while  Hezbollah has intensified attacks on Israel  from southern Lebanon, opening another front that has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians.

Attacks on shipping in Iraqi waters have further heightened fears that maritime energy routes could become direct targets as the conflict deepens. Any sustained disruption to tanker traffic in the Gulf would  tighten global supply and place additional pressure on already volatile  energy markets. 

The expanding conflict has also reached the United Nations Security Council. 

The council adopted a resolution condemning Iran’s attacks on Gulf states and calling for an immediate halt to hostilities.

The measure passed with 13 votes in favour while Russia and China abstained, reflecting divisions among major powers over how to respond to the crisis.  

Iran rejected the resolution, argu- ing that the council had failed to  address the United States and Israeli strikes that triggered the war. Civilian casualties are rising as the fighting intensifies.

Civilian casualties are rising as the fighting intensifies. 

Iranian authorities say the bombing campaign has caused extensive damage to civilian infrastructure. According to figures released by Tehran, more than 1 300 civilians have been killed and thousands injured since the attacks began. 

Iranian officials say nearly 10 000 civilian locations have been damaged or destroyed, including homes, hospitals, schools and markets. 

Among the sites affected, Iranian authorities say more than 500 schools and close to 100 hospitals have been damaged during the air campaign. 

The humanitarian toll is becoming an increasingly visible dimension of the war as the fighting spreads across multiple countries. For South Africa, the escalation carries both diplomatic and economic implications. 

International Relations and Cooperation Minister Ronald Lamola warned this week that the conflict is already generating global uncertainty and could intensify inflationary pressures, energy insecurity and disruptions to food supply chains. 

Speaking at a media briefing in Pretoria, Lamola said the unfolding crisis was creating widespread anxiety across the international system. “The escalation of tensions in the Middle East harbours great anxiety and uncertainty in the region and the world,” he said. 

Lamola said the conflict had already begun affecting global supply chains and agricultural production through disruptions linked to fertiliser markets.. 

South Africa condemned the initial strikes carried out by the US and Israel, which Lamola said violated Article 2(4) of the United Nations Charter prohibiting the use of force against the territorial integrity of another state. 

At the same time, the government also criticised Iranian strikes against Gulf states. In a statement, 

South Africa said attacks on Gulf Cooperation Council countries were not consistent with what is permitted under Article 51 of the UN Charter and violated the sovereignty of states that were not involved in the initial attacks. Iran rejects that interpretation. 

In an interview with the Mail & Guardian, Iran’s ambassador to South Africa, Mansour Shakib Mehr, said Tehran’s military response is legitimate self defence under international law and is directed at US military bases used in the strikes against Iran. 

“We respect the sovereignty of our neighbours and emphasise friendly relations with them,” Mehr said. “But we cannot remain indifferent when attacks on Iranian territory and the killing of our people are carried out through these bases.” 

Mehr said Iran considers its response a lawful exercise of its right to defend itself under the UN Charter. 

“We are exercising our legitimate right of self-defence and responding militarily to US and Israeli military bases,” he said. 

Iran also maintains that the strikes occurred while diplomatic negotiations were still under way. According to Tehran, indirect talks between Iran and the United States were progressing through intermediaries shortly before the attacks were launched. 

“Twice, while we were in the middle of negotiations, our country was subjected to military attack,” Mehr said. The ambassador said the war has raised broader concerns about the erosion of international norms governing sovereignty and the use of force. 

“This situation could happen to any other country,” he said. “No state should feel empowered to assassinate the leader of another nation.” 

The killing of Iran’s supreme leader during the initial strikes marked a major escalation in the war. Israeli and US officials had expected the attack to destabilise Iran’s political system and weaken the government’s ability to respond. Instead, Iran’s Assembly of Experts moved quickly to appoint a successor earlier this month.

Mehr said the transition demonstrated what he described as the resilience of Iran’s political institutions. 

“Israel and the United States believed that by assassinating Iran’s leader the government and political system would collapse,” he said. “However, Iran’s political system is stable and based on the law.” 

Despite the continuing escalation, Iranian officials have begun outlining conditions under which they say hostilities could end. 

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Tehran would consider ending the war if its rights were recognised, reparations were paid for the attacks and international guarantees were provided to prevent further strikes. Whether those conditions could form the basis for negotiations remains uncertain. Diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict are continuing behind the scenes. 

Officials in Oman and Qatar, which have previously served as intermediaries in negotiations between Iran and Western governments, say they were taken by surprise when the initial strikes were launched. 

Omani mediators had been facilitating talks between Washington and Tehran and believed an agreement was within reach when the attacks began. 

The widening war is also exposing divisions within the Gulf itself. Several Gulf governments have privately insisted that they did not support or facilitate the strikes on Iran despite hosting US military bases. 

Lamola said he had spoken with counterparts in Gulf states who emphasised that their governments had not authorised their territories to be used for attacks. The risk of miscalculation remains high as military operations expand across the region. 

For governments around the world the crisis now represents not only a regional military confrontation but a geopolitical shock with potentially far-reaching implications for energy security, international diplomacy and the global economy. 

The coming weeks will determine whether diplomatic efforts can contain the escalation or whether the war continues to widen into a deeper regional conflict.