The SAVE Act connection to the Paxton-Cornyn race

The tight GOP primary for U.S. Senate in Texas has suddenly cast the SAVE Act into the spotlight, and Trump vows not to sign any other legislation into law until this passes. The SAVE Act is short for Save America Act, and its longer name before that was the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act.

The SAVE Act would require U.S. citizenship to register to vote and presentation of photo ID in order to cast a ballot. The House narrowly passed the SAVE Act in early February: Republicans unanimously voted for it, plus one Democrat from Texas (Henry Cuellar).

Last Tuesday, Ken Paxton came within 2 percentage points of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, despite how Cornyn’s candidacy was propped up with $70 million in spending. They proceed next to a runoff on May 26 where traditionally the more conservative candidate, who is Paxton, would prevail.

Senate Republicans, favoring their own, have been lobbying Trump to endorse Cornyn. Trump said that the candidate he declines to endorse should exit the race.

But Paxton then pulled a rabbit out of his hat last week by promising to withdraw only if the Senate Republicans pass the SAVE Act, which they can do by ending or modifying the traditional filibuster. Paxton was right in expecting Trump to make the SAVE Act more important than the Texas race.

Trump subsequently stated not only that he wants the SAVE Act enacted, but that he wants more provisions added to it. He wants the law to prohibit transgender surgeries on children and to ban participation in women’s sports by men who say they are transgender women.

Trump also properly demands an end to mail-in ballots, with reasonable exceptions for illness, disability, service in the military and travel. Mail-in balloting is particularly vulnerable to fraud, as found by the 2005 Commission on Federal Election Reform, which was co-chaired by former Democrat President Jimmy Carter.

Republican congressmen rarely lose in their own primary, and senators even less so. The only Republican incumbent congressman defeated last week in his own primary was Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, who had falsely accused Trump of contributing to the death of a Capitol Police officer on Jan, 6, 2021.

A combat veteran who lost an eye serving our country, Crenshaw had posed as an independent-minded Republican like Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a generation ago. Crenshaw even appeared once on “Saturday Night Live” and was considered by many to be unbeatable.

Yet the more conservative state legislator Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw last Tuesday in a stunning 15-point upset, in what he said was a battle for the future of the Republican Party. President Trump stayed out of the race and did not endorse either candidate.

Trump racked up a perfect 124-0 record last week when he did endorse, of which he reminded House members at their meeting in Doral, Florida. Trump does not want to endorse a candidate who is likely to be defeated, or who is not strongly MAGA.

Cornyn’s lackluster performance after spending more than $100 per vote – and more than 10 times what Paxton spent – may be weighing on Trump’s decision. A selling point for choosing Cornyn over Paxton is that Cornyn would supposedly fare better against the Democrat nominee this fall, but recent polling is not showing Cornyn with any significant advantage.

Indeed, a Newsweek poll released on Tuesday showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 44-43% in the runoff, even if Trump endorses Cornyn. A Texas Politics Project poll last month showed that Paxton has a stronger net favorability among GOP-registered voters than Cornyn has.

For an incumbent to fare so poorly in his own primary is reminiscent of President Lyndon B. Johnson barely winning the first 1968 Democrat presidential primary in New Hampshire, and then pulling out of the race as a result. Given that the immense power of incumbency and an enormous monetary advantage were unable to make Cornyn a clear winner in his own primary, his candidacy has weaknesses.

Frustration with Congress is growing. Senate Republicans have refused to move on the SAVE Act because of the filibuster rule that requires 60 votes in order to end debate and enact it.

The U.S. Senate has been called the world’s most exclusive club, and collegiality among the 100 senators is legendary as they allow a single member to block nominations, and merely 41 senators can prevent a vote on legislation. Senators also favor their own as nominees to other offices.

Senate Republicans persuaded Trump to appoint fellow Sen. Markwayne Mullin, R-Okla., to become the new secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, in replacement of Kristi Noem. Days have gone by without any comment by conservative Tom Homan, who is in charge of deportations, on the selection of Mullin as his new colleague.