Russia and China in the Gray Zone

Two short videos from the Joint Special Operations University outline the growing importance of the “Gray Zone” in modern strategic competition. The Gray Zone is the space between peace and open war where states pursue strategic goals while deliberately staying below the threshold that would trigger direct military conflict. 

Russia’s Toolkit

The first video, “JSOU Snapshot: Russia in the Gray Zone,” highlights how Vladimir Putin’s Russia uses Gray Zone tactics across its “near abroad.” These methods include election interference, support for separatist movements, disinformation campaigns, and covert deployments such as the “little green men” used during the Annexation of Crimea. These kinds of activities allow Moscow to exert influence over neighboring states while reducing the risk of direct confrontation with the United States or NATO.

China’s Toolkit

The second video, “JSOU Snapshot: China in the Gray Zone,” examines how China employs similar approaches in places like the South China Sea and around Taiwan. Beijing blends cyber operations, disinformation, economic pressure, and maritime coercion. A notable example is the use of large commercial fishing fleets that can operate as a maritime militia, intimidating regional actors while maintaining the appearance of civilian activity. Through island construction, maritime patrols, and persistent pressure campaigns, China seeks to reshape the regional status quo without crossing into open conflict.

The Role of SOF

The videos conclude that such ambiguous forms of competition require a different operational approach. Because Gray-Zone competition involves persistent political, informational, and economic pressure rather than kinetic battlefield clashes, units under United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) are particularly well suited to respond since they are trained to operate in politically sensitive environments where the U.S. is not formally at war. 

Why This Matters

The Gray Zone is a defining feature of contemporary geopolitics. For analysts and planners, understanding how rivals use ambiguity, proxies, and non-kinetic tools is essential to competing effectively in an era where the most consequential conflicts will almost certainly unfold without an open declaration of war.

For an in depth look at one way China is building its Gray Zone capabilities, read Dr. Tahir Azad’s “China’s Expanding Global Intelligence Footprint In The Digital Age.”

And while you’re at it, check out Col. David Maxwell’s perspective piece, “America Needs Cognitive Civil Defense,” which ups the ante around the pressing need for the U.S. to coherently counter Gray Zone-type threats. 

 

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