Who will win and who should win at the 2026 Oscars

• The Oscars air on ABC and stream on Hulu Sunday at 7pm ET.
• "One Battle After Another" and "Sinners" are the frontrunners in the major categories.
• Here are our predictions for who will win big on Oscar night.

For the first time in years, it's a toss-up on who will take home the Oscar in the main categories at this year's Academy Awards.

In the best actor category, will it be frontrunner Timothée Chalamet for "Marty Supreme," or, after a surprise win at The Actor Awards, does "Sinners" star Michael B. Jordan have enough momentum to take home the statue?

In the best director category, will voters lean towards Paul Thomas Anderson for "One Battle After Another," cementing his auteur status, or will Ryan Coogler pull off a win with his crowd-pleasing "Sinners"?

Below, a rundown of who will win and who should win in the major categories.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Benicio Del Toro, "One Battle After Another"
Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"
Delroy Lindo, "Sinners"
Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"
Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value"

Who will win: Sean Penn

Penn's role as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw is yet another riveting performance by the two-time Oscar winner. It's definitely worthy of the prize, and it won't be shocking if he takes it home.

Who should win: Delroy Lindo

But it's possible Oscar voters will pass on Penn because he's already got a few gold men at home. If that's the case, Lindo will be walking on stage. After a storied career, his performance in "Sinners" as the boozed-up performer Delta Slim marks his first-ever Oscar nom.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another"
Amy Madigan, "Weapons"
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, "Sentimental Value"
Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners"
Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"

Who will win: Amy Madigan

Playing creepy Aunt Gladys has spurned a career resurgence for Madigan. It will lead to Oscar glory for the veteran actor.

Who should win: Teyana Taylor

That is, if Perfidia Beverly Hills doesn't crash the party. Though Taylor has the second-least amount of screen time of all the stars in "One Battle After Another" — Benicio Del Toro has the least — her performance is the movie's glue.

Best Animated Movie

Nominees:

"Arco"
"Elio"
"KPop Demon Hunters"
"Little Amélie or the Character of Rain"
"Zootopia 2"

Who will win: "KPop Demon Hunters"

Netflix's colossal hit is a sure thing.

Who should win: "KPop Demon Hunters"

Seriously, everyone else in this category is just happy to get an invite.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees:

"Blue Moon"
"It Was Just an Accident"
"Marty Supreme"
"Sentimental Value"
"Sinners"

Who will win: "Sinners"

What sets "Sinners" apart from many horror movies is Ryan Coogler's storytelling. His original script, which is as much about vampires as it is about culture and family, will get recognition.

Who should win: "Sinners"

Coogler deserves this prize.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees:

"Bugonia"
"Frankenstein"
"Hamnet"
"One Battle After Another"
"Train Dreams"

Who will win: "One Battle After Another"

Paul Thomas Anderson masterfully uses the current political climate to examine the pressures of parenthood. It culminates in another masterwork by the writer-director.

Who should win: "One Battle After Another"

Like Coogler, no one is more deserving in this category than PTA.

Best Cinematography

Nominees:

"Frankenstein"
"Marty Supreme"
"One Battle After Another"
"Sinners"
"Train Dreams"

Who will win: "Sinners"

Cinematographer Autumn Durald Arkapaw's win will be historic, marking the first time in Oscar history that a woman has won in this category. Her beautiful vistas of the American South are a perfect match to Coogler's deep-fried story.

Who should win: "Train Dreams"

It's a very much a longshot, but I have to give a shout-out to DP Adolpho Veloso's work. Part of the beauty of "Train Dreams" is its images. Every shot is pristine.

Best Actress

Nominees:

Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"
Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"
Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue"
Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"
Emma Stone, "Bugonia"

Who will win: Jessie Buckley

This is the biggest sure thing of the night. Buckley, playing a grieving mother, has astounded the entire industry this year.

Who should win: Jessie Buckley

There may be fainting in the aisles if Buckley doesn't win.

Best Actor

Nominees:

Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"
Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"
Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"
Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"
Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent"

Who will win: Timothée Chalamet

This is without question the toughest category to pick for the evening. I'm going to go with my gut and say that voters will go with Chalamet. He is the fuel of his movie, and frankly, we aren't watching if someone of his talents isn't in that role.

Who should win: Michael B. Jordan

Jordan's most memorable roles so far in his career have all been helmed by Coogler, so the fairytale ending — both he and Coogler walking away with Oscars — is there for the taking. It certainly could happen.

Best Director

Nominees:

Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"
Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"
Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"
Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value"
Ryan Coogler, "Sinners"

Who will win: Paul Thomas Anderson

This decision is not based on talent; it's simply that PTA has now been nominated four times in the best director category, so it's time to give him the prize.

Who should win: Ryan Coogler

However, it won't be a shock if Coogler wins. His talents are elite and deserving of the prize.

Best Picture

Nominees:

"Bugonia"
"F1"
"Frankenstein"
"Hamnet"
"Marty Supreme"
"One Battle After Another"
"The Secret Agent"
"Sentimental Value"
"Sinners"
"Train Dreams"

Who will win: "One Battle After Another"

This could all change if Coogler wins best director, but if PTA wins, the biggest prize of the night will go to his movie.

Who should win: "One Battle After Another"

Even if Coogler wins, I hope to see "One Battle" get best picture. Everything from the care in production design to the camera work, acting, writing, and direction, show this is a movie that will be cherished long after this award season.