Would 5th place still be enough for Liverpool to qualify for UCL after England’s nightmare week?
All six Premier League participants qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League, but not one of them managed to win the first leg of their respective ties.
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Indeed, only Newcastle and Arsenal came away with draws, with Liverpool losing away to Galatasaray while Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester City and Chelsea all shipped three-goal beatings to leave them with a near-impossible task at home next week.
England had looked a near-certainty to take one of the two European Performance Spots (EPS) for next season’s edition of the tournament, but after the chastening results of the past two nights, could that status now be at risk?
Is England still on course for fifth Champions League place?
As explained by Dale Johnson for BBC Sport, England still leads the UEFA coefficient table for 2025/26 as all nine of its European participants are still involved in their respective tournaments, with its average of 22.513 ahead of Spain (18.031) and Germany (18.000).
With English participation in the Champions League set to heavily dwindle for the quarter-finals, the fate of Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest in the Europa League, and Crystal Palace in the Conference League, could be crucial to the Premier League holding into its projected EPS.
At present there appears to be little danger of England losing its extra place, but if several of their clubs fall at the last-16 hurdle and their Spanish and German counterparts go deep into their respective competitions, that could come under threat in the latter weeks of the season.
What does that mean for Liverpool’s Champions League hopes?
Domestically, Liverpool are locked in a four-way battle with Manchester United, Aston Villa and Chelsea for what currently looked like being three Champions League places, although the likely elimination of several English clubs from Europe could yet shift the goalposts.
Gary Lineker recently predicted the Reds to just about hold off Liam Rosenior’s side for fifth, which at present would be enough to qualify for the flagship European tournament, although that’s not as much of a racing certainty as it had seemed a week ago.
| Premier League table on 12 March | Played | Goal difference | Points |
| 3. Manchester United | 29 | +11 | 51 |
| 4. Aston Villa | 29 | +5 | 51 |
| 5. Chelsea | 29 | +19 | 48 |
| 6. Liverpool | 29 | +9 | 48 |
Ideally, Arne Slot’s side would muster the consistency to finish inside the top four and make absolutely sure of being in the Champions League next term, although their results in various competitions this month (and throughout the campaign) would make that difficult to bank upon.
The most recent Opta simulations give Liverpol a roughly 50-50 chance of securing fourth or fifth, so qualification for Europe’s premier club tournament could be in the balance right up to the final weeks of the campaign.
The Reds will do their chances of qualifying via domestic placing the world of good if they can overturn the first-leg deficit against Galatasaray at Anfield next week, and they could do with a bit of help from their English colleagues in their round-of-16 ties in Europe as well.
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