Iran only needs to survive this war

On Saturday, Feb 28, 2026, the President of the United States of America Donald J. Trump did the unthinkable. It was an act that will echo and vibrate in the annals of history for generations to come. In more than five hundred strikes, the US/Israeli military dropped missiles on Iran targeting many prominent leaders, people and institutions. Most importantly, just hours after those attacks the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, gave a press briefing in which he said that “all significant signs showed that the strikes had killed Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran”. This announcement was followed by a post on Truth Social from the US President himself, confirming the news that the Ayatollah had been killed by an Israeli/US operation Epic Fury. And almost immediately – and within 24 hours of the attack, the Iranian state media confirmed the development.

This was a shocking blow to many and thousands took to the streets in mourning a man they had long held in high esteem as a spiritual leader and political figure. However, there were other people who were very happy about this news and could not help but celebrate the demise of the Supreme Leader. This is a testament of the divergent views and complexities within Iranian society. But needless to say, from the beginning; the United States and Israel have demonstrated that this war has nothing to do with the Iran nuclear program, which was the initial excuse or perhaps the lie that President Trump attempted to use for telling the world why America was going to war with Iran.

President Trump publicly declared that “Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon” forgetting that it was him who told the world last year in June, that the US had obliterated all the nuclear facilities during an operation when Trump bombed Iran. Thus, to come around now and claim that America is going to war with Iran for its nuclear program is nothing but insulting to the intelligence of the people. It is no wonder why this war has an approval rating of 78% of the people in the US against it. In fact, this is why the administration in Washington DC has changed the narrative and is now talking more of regime change than Iran’s nuclear program. But obviously at this point, public opinion concerning this war is of no consequence because the American leadership elite and political players are not really about serving the ordinary people rather but special interests. This disapproval for the war is likely to skyrocket, especially now that President Trump has flip-flopped many times on reasons for attacking another sovereign state. He is just so obsessed with this idea of regime change in Iran. Evidently, this is going to cost the United States so much that by the time the war is over, Trump’s presidency will crumble with it because regime change cannot be effected by the US on Iran without boots on the ground and without massive escalation. 

There is no doubt that difficult days lie ahead of the global order as we know it since the end of World War II. Clearly, the USA has set a very dangerous precedent in terms of not abiding by international law, the rules-based order and respect for international institutions such as the United Nations, the International Criminal Court, etc. The kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela is a classic example of such unwarranted actions from the United States. And much worse, the unconstitutional war against Iran by President Trump without seeking Congress’s approval and without going to the United Nations’ Security Council. Therefore, only three possible assumptions make sense as to why President Trump even considered going to war with Iran. 

Firstly this war is absolutely one of choice instigated by hubris from the United States, because of the so-called successful operation in Venezuela. Hence, after what happened in Caracas, as the US military descended on Maduro and captured him – President Trump was both shocked in disbelief and also impressed by the might of the American military. This excited the US President to think that he can just do a quick operation in Iran with limited strikes. Unfortunately, this cannot be further from the truth and at best it is a worse miscalculation that will potentially haunt the Trump presidency long after he leaves office. 

The second reason why Trump may have chosen to go after Iran now, is simply due to the Epstein Files. Just a few days before the Department of Justice was again about to put out more information on the Epstein files, the US President, who has long denied any allegations of wrongdoing during his association with his deceased buddy, desperately needed a distraction from what could potentially be catastrophic new revelations. He stepped forward and declared war on Iran during that weekend and last week, the DOJ released more information on Jeffery Epstein and no one is talking about the said new revelations or how Trump is in the files with new allegations of rape by a named woman who actually made these claims many years ago and reported to the authorities then, to no avail. Any serious analysis on this subject cannot rule out the impact and influence of whatever is contained in the Epstein Files, on the impulsive decisions coming out of the White House. This is why independent and alternative media in the US are referring to this war as Operation Epstein Fury, as opposed to the official name given by the Trump administration.  

And lastly, the other obvious reason is because of Israel, the Christian Zionist in America, the Israeli lobby in Washington DC and the Zionist donors who gave millions of dollars to Trump’s campaign. These different groups who have exerted enormous pressure on President Trump, all share the same religious ideology of Armageddon which is a war to be fought between the forces of good and evil during the end times. This war is supposedly meant to bring about the Second Coming of the Messiah. As for the Prime Minister of Israel, who has tried for many years to drag the US into a war with Iran – his interest is nothing more than breaking up Iran into a failed state like Syria, so that it does not pose an imminent threat to the greater Israel project. Sadly, there are some Christian Zionists who believe that President Trump is such a man, anointed by Jesus to start a war that will bring about the end times. Regrettably, this is the kind of rubbish that some military commanders in the US are feeding their units to sell this war to them. Over 200 military service men and women lodged complaints with a religious watchdog against this kind of misplaced biblical rhetoric. Interestingly, the Iranian people of the Shia faith in Islam also believe that the war against the United States is a war that poses an existential threat to them. Thus, according to their eschatology or religion, this is a war against the great Satan and they have been preparing for this for over 20 years, since President George Bush called out Iran as being part of the “axis of evil.”

Even though the United States likes to boast that its military is the greatest on earth, such a statement is not exactly accurate because the American military is the most expensive and advanced, not necessarily the greatest. In fact, technological superiority can be a liability in a war such as this one, it is too expensive and you cannot afford to lose it. Therefore, you become risk averse while the other side has nothing to lose. Just a few days ago, at the start of this war, both Israel together with the US fired 11 interceptors at a single Iranian missile, spending roughly about $11 million to $33 million to try and shoot down a missile worth $100,000 – and failed. By this example, it is very clear that if this war goes on for weeks and months or even years – it will be the Americans and the Israelis who will pay a huge price. Actually, the US President will do well to find an off -ramp or excuse to stop the bombings and end this war before it is too late. 

Some of the fundamental questions that we need to answer in trying to make sense of this situation is whether the US and Israel stand a chance to win against Iran or will Iran prevail? And after all is said and done, how will this end? In order to address such fundamental questions, we have to look at this war from purely a strategic point of view. The United States will desperately have to win this war but the question is how does “winning this war” look like for the Trump regime? Honestly, it is difficult to quantify or define what would constitute a win for the United States and Israel because the objectives of this war are so vague, unclear and constantly changing. In order to win a war such as this, the military objectives should have been well-thought through and communicated from the get-go. Unfortunately, this is not the case with the Trump administration.

However, Iran does not need to “win” this war by any means – all they have to do is just survive it. The notion that war is about guns and missiles and overwhelming force is absolutely misplaced. Not long ago, the US Secretary of War publicly bragged about how the US air force will soon take over the Iranian air space and “control everything”. He thinks that by taking over the air space in Iran, this would amount to some sort of victory. Clearly, Secretary Pete Hegseth has a lot to learn about war – and Vietnam would be a good starting point. The military doctrine of shock and awe and controlling a country’s air space is not what wins wars, it’s the people’s will and determination. The United States controlled the air space of North Vietnam for as long as the war lasted but the peasant rice farmers of North Vietnam defeated the Americans and forced them to flee after 30 years of fighting for their homeland. Surely, Iran will put everything into this war and will ensure that they see it to the end, which is the most likely outcome because most factors in this war favour Iran in the long term. It’s unthinkable to imagine that the US can fight a war of attrition in Iran with only precision strikes. That is not possible at all. 

To make matters worse, the Trump administration has now shifted its talking points and seems to be so focused on this idea of regime change. Undoubtedly, the US President and his team have learned nothing from history because if they did – then they would know that no regime change wars have ever been or can be achieved by air power without boots on the ground. This simply means that, if President Trump is really committed to a regime change operation in Iran – then he will have to send troops to occupy Tehran and physically eliminate the government in place and then install a new regime that plays ball with the United States. In all practical purposes, this is far-fetched and seemingly a pipedream, especially now that the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is in place.

The war will be very costly to the US Treasury and to human life. Right now, in the early days of the war, it is projected that the US is spending roughly about $1 billion a day. This is not sustainable in the long run. Another disadvantage for America is simply the fact that Iran’s fortress landscape of mountains will be nothing but a death trap for US troops if they invade Iran. They will have no supply of basic necessities which soldiers need desperately for war and they will have to rely on air supply, which would make them vulnerable to the locals who know and understand Iran’s terrain.  This is why the Foreign Affairs in Iran boldly stated that if the Americans decide to put troops on the ground “we are waiting and we will be ready for them”. 

In the final analysis, the United States and Israel will do well to quickly realise that Iran cannot be easily fragmented into regional factions like they did with Libya, Syria and Iraq. And it is not even possible to bomb Iran into submission. Thus, talk of unconditional surrender by President Trump is just a sheer waste of time for the Iranians. These people will fight this war to the bitter end, even if it means sacrificing everything for the cause. So, before things get too complicated, the US should withdraw from this war of choice and give peace a chance. In the meantime, Iran will absorb all the bombings and destabilisation with one clear objective, which is nothing but to ensure survival while retaliating in defense of the homeland. 

Aaron Ng’ambi is a geopolitical analyst, newspaper columnist and leadership consultant