US lawmakers propose ban on death betting prediction markets
Members of Congress are moving to block a controversial corner of the prediction market industry by introducing legislation that would outlaw betting contracts tied to violence or death.
The proposal, called the “Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act,” or the DEATH BETS Act, was introduced in the Senate by Sen. Adam Schiff and in the House by Rep. Mike Levin. If enacted, the bill would change federal commodities law so regulated exchanges could not list event contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, or a person’s death.
The legislation would amend the Commodity Exchange Act, the federal law that governs derivatives markets and the platforms that host certain prediction markets.
Concerns grow over prediction markets betting on death
Under the bill’s language, any “registered entity” would be barred from listing or clearing event contracts connected to violent acts or mortality. Lawmakers say the change is designed to shut down a category of wagers that many in Washington see as ethically troubling and potentially dangerous.
The proposal specifically targets contracts that reference “terrorism, assassination, war, or any similar activity,” as well as markets that could be interpreted as tracking or predicting “an individual’s death.” The text also modifies Section 5c of the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit agreements or swaps tied to excluded commodities that “involve, relate to, or reference terrorism, assassination, war,” along with contracts connected to “an individual’s death.”
Betting on war and death creates an environment in which insiders can profit off of classified information, our national security is jeopardized, and violence is encouraged. There is no justification for gambling on lives, or public benefit to be derived by such a market. With regulators turning a blind eye, prediction markets have rapidly become the Wild West.
Se. Adam Schiff
Supporters of the measure argue that prediction markets have increasingly drifted into areas involving real-world harm.
“Betting on war and death should be illegal,” Levin said in a press release announcing the legislation. “While federal law prohibits prediction market contracts on terrorism, war, and assassination, there are still gaping holes that allow traders to profit off death.”
Levin and other backers say those gaps in existing regulations could allow traders to profit from developments such as military conflict or the deaths of service members.
Schiff also raised concerns about the security implications of markets tied to violent events. According to the release, betting markets connected to violence can “create an environment in which insiders can profit off of classified information,” jeopardizing national security and encouraging violence.
The legislation arrives as prediction markets face growing attention from lawmakers and regulators. The platforms allow users to trade contracts whose prices reflect the perceived probability of future outcomes, ranging from elections to geopolitical developments.
Recent debates have focused on markets offered by platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, where users can speculate on political or international events. Critics in Congress say some of those contracts blur the line between forecasting and profiting from human tragedy.
Earlier this year, a group of senators urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to reaffirm its prohibition on contracts that resolve upon or closely correlate to an individual’s death, warning that such markets could create national security risks.
Pressure for tighter oversight intensified after controversy erupted over prediction markets speculating about the fate of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Reports indicated millions of dollars in wagers were placed on whether he would be removed from power.
Supporters of prediction markets often argue that the platforms harness “the wisdom of crowds” and can produce valuable forecasts. Critics counter that markets tied to death, violence, or military conflict cross ethical lines and may invite manipulation or insider trading.
Separately, senators have pressed regulators to investigate the sector and questioned whether staffing cuts at the CFTC could hinder oversight of emerging markets tied to geopolitical events.
Backers of the DEATH BETS Act say writing an explicit prohibition into federal law would close remaining loopholes and make clear that wagers tied to war or death have no place on regulated U.S. trading platforms.
Featured image: Gage Skidmore via WikiCommons / CC BY-SA 2.0 / Mike Levin via X
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