Byelections could tip Liberals to a majority — will it matter in dealing with Trump?
WASHINGTON, D.C. — Prime Minister Mark Carney announced byelections scheduled for April 13 in three ridings on Sunday, and if his party wins all three, the Liberals will secure a one-seat majority in Parliament.
Two Ontario seats, in Scarborough Southwest and University–Rosedale, are vacant due to the resignations of Liberal MPs Bill Blair and Chrystia Freeland, while the seat in Terrebonne, Quebec, is empty because the 2025 vote result was annulled by the Supreme Court .
With this summer’s Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) review looming amid U.S. trade tensions, it’s fair to wonder how much a Liberal majority might strengthen Carney’s hand with Washington.
“I think it’s not that much if it’s just a bare majority…,” said Graeme Thompson, senior analyst at Eurasia Group. “It’s still only a vote or two that at any point could bring down the government.”
Most experts agree that a razor-thin majority would change little for battling Donald Trump’s trade war and navigating his demands during the CUSMA review, but Liberals may soon be tempted to chase an even bigger mandate — one Trump would notice — if the polls hold.
The great majority
Right now, Liberals have 169 MPs in the House of Commons, and three additional seats — Terrebonne is a toss-up — would give them a majority government, technically.
But at 172 seats, said Kim Richard Nossal, professor emeritus at Queen’s University in Kingston, it won’t really function as a majority because the Liberals hold the Speaker’s chair that “only votes in cases of ties,” so the government would still be a seat short.
That is “so narrow as to deprive the word majority of any kind of meaning,” he said.
While edging into the majority won’t change much domestically, said Colin Robertson, VP at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, it still projects stability to Washington, stressing that perceptions matter.
Carney is polling so strongly, however, that Liberal strategists may push him to call a general election.
In a recent Leger poll, 61 per cent said they approved of Carney’s performance, and 49 per cent said they would vote Liberal, a 14-percentage point lead over the Conservatives.
“There are competing voices” near Carney on this matter, said Thompson, noting that some see an opportunity while others see risk.
To go for it, Carney would have to convince voters why he needs a new mandate — perhaps arguing that it could help in trade talks and amid a destabilized world — and manage to not look “opportunistic and self-serving,” which is off-brand for his “safe pair-of-hands” brand, explained Thompson.
“I think the question of an early election will hinge a little bit on (Carney’s) ability to make that case and to outline an agenda over the next month or six weeks,” he said, noting that signals might come at the 2026 Liberal National Convention in April.
The convention would allow Carney to speak directly to Canadians and explain his agenda and why a bigger mandate would help him deliver on it.
A clear window for an early election, Thompson said, is between late May and June, before summer vacationers leave for their cottages, and before the Quebec provincial election.
So how much could a bigger mandate help Carney in his dealings with Trump?
Leverage matters
Experts note that Trump loves winners and tends to respect leaders with stronger domestic mandates, but they say it may not help Carney, whatever his margin.
“Trump’s views of Canada and of Canadian-American trade … I think is entirely independent of what happens within Canada,” said Nossal.
While Trump respects winners, said Robertson, he doesn’t necessarily respect mandates, so winning a majority might soften Trump’s tactics, but it won’t change his demands. He suggested that winning a majority would probably mean Trump “isn’t going to try and bully him as much as he did Trudeau, who he saw as weak and unpopular.”
Roland Paris, an international affairs professor at the University of Ottawa and former Trudeau advisor, said a bigger majority for Carney could help, especially after the CUSMA negotiations.
“Over the longer term … (it) would give Carney some greater latitude,” Paris said, pointing to the need for a stronger footing in Parliament to politically overcome any difficult trade-offs he might make. It would allow Carney to more easily push through treaty ratification or legislative changes and absorb politically controversial compromises he might need to make during the CUSMA review.
Thompson agreed, noting that U.S. presidents worry more about American voters and interest groups, not Canadian political majorities. Where a majority helps is in being able to “deliver what they promise in negotiations.”
The U.S. has flagged that it aims to negotiate issues like digital services discrimination and critical minerals, as well as dairy market access.
Thompson sees wiggle room for Carney with the digital legislation, including the Online Streaming and Online News Acts.
“(Carney) has already shown himself to be pragmatic about adjusting course on Trudeau‑era policies that no longer make sense.”
Critical minerals and dairy are another story.
“It was telling that when the U.S. State Department convened a critical minerals summit a few weeks ago, Canada did not sign on to the proposed agreement – the logic being that it wants to reserve its leverage over critical minerals for the context of direct trade negotiations with the U.S.,” Thompson said.
And no matter how big Carney’s majority, supply management for dairy will remain a third-rail issue.
“As ever, supply‑managed dairy is going to be a real political headache… not because (Ottawa) fundamentally agrees with the principle, but because the political costs at home would be very high,” said Thompson.
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