Alpha Bank shares rated ‘buy’ as analysts cite attractive returns

Capital markets firm Jefferies recently raised its target price for Alpha Bank shares to €4.85 from €4.15 and reiterated its buy recommendation, citing the bank’s strong earnings outlook and attractive shareholder returns.

The analysts said that the Greek lender offers an appealing combination of high earnings growth and strong shareholder returns over the coming years.

According to the investment house, the investment story of Alpha Bank remains particularly attractive, even though 2026 is expected to represent a transition year for the group.

Despite some adjustments to profitability forecasts, the analysts said the overall growth trajectory remains strong across the forecast period.

Jefferies estimates that earnings per share will grow at an average annual rate of around 15 per cent until 2028, significantly higher than the approximately 10 per cent growth expected for the wider European banking sector.

At the same time, the bank is projected to offer total shareholder returns of around 8 per cent per year, while tangible book value is expected to increase by roughly 10 per cent annually during the same period.

Despite this momentum, the analysts said Alpha Bank’s valuation remains attractive compared with European peers.

The stock is currently trading at around seven times estimated 2027 earnings, compared with approximately 8.5 times for European banks.

In addition, the bank’s valuation corresponds to about 0.9 times tangible book value, even though the return on tangible equity (ROTE) is expected to reach around 13.5 per cent by 2028.

For 2026, the bank’s management has guided the market towards normalised earnings per share of around €0.40, which represents annual growth of roughly 11 per cent.

Net interest income is projected to exceed €1.7 billion, based on an assumption that the three-month Euribor rate will stand at approximately 190 basis points next year.

Credit expansion is expected to remain strong, with loan growth forecast to continue at a high single-digit rate.

Pressure on loan margins is expected to remain limited, while fee income continues to strengthen.

Jefferies pointed out that fee income in the fourth quarter of 2025 was around 10 per cent higher than market estimates, rising 19 per cent on a year-on-year basis.

The increase reflects strong activity in both corporate lending and wealth management services.

The analysts also highlighted Alpha Bank’s expansion in Cyprus as an important driver of future fee growth.

Following the acquisition of AstroBank, the bank is strengthening its presence further through the purchase of Altius.

Altius will merge with Universal Life, creating the third largest insurance platform in Cyprus, according to the analysts.

The transaction is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

Jefferies said that the combination of strong earnings growth, high shareholder returns and attractive valuation keeps Alpha Bank among the most interesting investment options in the European banking sector.

Separately, Alpha Bank announced that it purchased 3,638,519 of its own shares between March 2 and March 6, 2026, with an average acquisition price of €3.5679 per share.

The total cost of the share buyback amounted to €12,981,929.77, according to the bank.

The purchases were carried out through the Athens Stock Exchange under the share buyback programme approved by the extraordinary general meeting of shareholders on June 12, 2025.

The programme had previously been referenced in a bank announcement issued on September 17, 2025.

Following these transactions, Alpha Bank now holds a total of 42,533,117 treasury shares, representing 1.8371 per cent of its total outstanding shares.