Chicago Cubs Threat Loses Ace Until July

Well, this could give the Chicago Cubs a bit of breathing room in the division as one of their major threats in the NL Central just lost their ace until July. On Tuesday, the Cincinnati Reds revealed that right-handed starting pitcher Hunter Greene will be sidelined for at least three months after his surgery.

Greene, 26, will have an arthroscopic procedure this week according to ESPN. The surgery will remove bone chips and loose bodies from his right elbow that will keep him out of action for the Reds until at least July. The right-hander posted a 2.67 ERA and 0.97 WHIP with an incredible 31.4 K% that ranked fifth among all starters with at least 100 innings pitched in 2025.

Unfortunately for the Reds this isn’t the first time Greene has been out because of injury. Despite his stellar 2025 performance Greene did only throw 107.2 innings and was limited to 19 starts after suffering a groin strain in May and was on the injured list twice because of the groin issue. Greene did return and helped the Reds clinch a postseason berth as the third Wild Card team.

For years, the Reds have been viewed as a potential threat to win the NL Central, but while they’ve certainly been competitive they haven’t quite been able to take the next step. They have a group of talented pitchers in their starting rotation, but there’s no doubt that losing Greene for half the season will play a huge factor into the division race.

The Cubs and Reds play each other seven times prior to the All-Star break. There’s a four-game series in May at Wrigley Field, while the Reds will host the Cubs to close out the unofficial first half from July 10-12.

Greene has a 3.38 ERA in nine career appearances against the Cubs. That includes his complete-game, one-hit shutout last September in Cincinnati.

In 2025, the Reds finished 83-79, 14 games behind the division champion Milwaukee Brewers and nine games back of the Cubs.

Projected 2026 NL Central Standings

According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the Cubs are currently considered the favorite to win the NL Central in 2026. The projections already didn’t like the Reds’ chances and losing Greene until July certainly won’t help either.

FanGraphs
Cubs: 86-76
Pirates: 83-79
Brewers: 82-80
Reds: 78-84
Cardinals: 75-87

Meanwhile, PECOTA loves the Cubs even more, giving Chicago a 65.8% chance of winning the NL Central.

PECOTA
Cubs: 90-72
Pirates: 82-80
Brewers: 81-81
Reds: 79-83
Cardinals: 66-96

Without a doubt, the Cubs will begin the 2026 season with the most talented roster in their division and are up there among the best around MLB as well. However, you still have to play the games and like the Greene news, you simply can’t rule out major injuries throughout the season that can greatly change any team’s landscape.