Prediction:
Flipping the coin on Best Picture has a trickle-down effect on some of these other major categories. Basically, it seems likely based on a few prior ceremonies that there’ll be a film that runs the awards. But for Best Director, I’m not sure Ryan Coogler pulls this off despite my earlier Sinners selection—simply because the Academy loves a man who’s “due.” To me, that means Paul Thomas Anderson probably has his ship coming in with One Battle After Another.
Preference:
And hey, One Battle After Another is a feat and a half of directorial ability. Shot in an older format, wrangling stars old and new, straddling genres and tones and political sentiments, loosely adapting Pynchon on top of it all—there’s a lot going for PTA here that’s not just “Wow, how has PTA not won an Oscar yet?”
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia
Prediction:
Jessie Buckley crying in Hamnet has long been talked about as the lock of the awards season, and there’s been no late-breaking news to change that narrative. Buckley has been turning out excellent work for the last decade, and this is simply the biggest showcase for her abilities. If voters wept at all during Hamnet, and they certainly did, Buckley should reap the benefits.
Preference:
But for my money, it’s Rose Byrne who gives the maternal performance of the year. With a camera always up in her face, leaving her nowhere to hide for the duration of If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, her broken-down parental burnout is caustic and angry yet never quite detestable. It’s the best she’s ever been, and she’s always been a multitalented performer in need of more appreciation.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Prediction:
This is probably my least certain category, if only because…well, just look at that lineup! And it’s not like the more reliable awards predictors have been any help, since the BAFTAs went with a guy who’s not nominated for the Oscar, Timothée Chalamet and Michael B. Jordan have been splitting wins, and even Wagner Moura got himself a statue on the long road to this year’s Academy Awards. There’s been a ton of campaigning (though not much from Ethan Hawke, who’s excellent in Blue Moon), a ton of speculation, and a thoroughly muddy race. While young Timmy turned in career-best work in Marty Supreme, he didn’t play TWO Martys Supreme, which gives Michael B. Jordan the edge here.
Preference:
This is a stacked category full of performances I love. If we’re just talking pure charisma-bombing, sex-drenched, movie-star power, it’s a race between Moura and Jordan. If we’re talking about can’t-look-away turns as difficult assholes, Hawke and Chalamet are slugging it out. Splitting the difference is Leonardo DiCaprio as a pathetic, good-hearted punchline bumbling his way through an excellent movie. All have their merits, but apart from Chalamet, there just isn’t anybody I can imagine leading Marty Supreme.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Prediction:
Actors make up the biggest branch of the Academy, which means that their guild awards are often a strong indicator of who’ll take home some of the acting prizes at the Oscars. Amy Madigan surprised a lot of folks when she won this category at the Actor Awards, but if she’s got that many fans among her colleagues, it could make sense that she rides that momentum to a very funny victory over some much more respectable films.
Preference:
C’mon, let’s give it to the witch! Seriously, Amy Madigan is so delightfully wicked in Weapons that she makes the rest of its excellent cast fade into nothingness. And she’s not just coasting on her character’s (admittedly excellent and thoroughly Halloween-able) design, either. It’s a performance of bearing, of voice, and the film thrives because of how much she brings to it.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Prediction:
Sean Penn has been cleaning up the surrounding acting awards leading up to the Oscars, so he’s the man to beat despite facing competition from a co-star of his own movie. That said, his turn as the baddie of One Battle After Another is delightfully mannered and big enough to be a co-lead, two factors that’re always a good sign for the Supporting awards.
Preference:
Yet, I can’t help but be drawn to the more brief supporting performer in One Battle After Another: Benicio del Toro. Rather than appearing as the major antagonist, del Toro shows up as a character who’s as necessary to the vibes of the film as he is the plot. In his brief turn, he balances out Leonardo DiCaprio, oozes charm, embodies his movie’s political themes, and drops a few lines I’m still thinking about a year later.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Blue Moon, It Was Just An Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Prediction:
Sinners is going to be hard to overcome here, because this is one of those categories closely linked to Best Picture. And, since One Battle After Another is competing in a different category thanks to its (admittedly loose) relationship with Thomas Pynchon’s Vineland, Sinners‘ competition is coming from some heavy-hitting but far less threatening films.
Preference:
While I’ve got lots of respect for Blue Moon‘s gabby, catty, stageplay-style script, the balance that It Was Just An Accident strikes in its depiction of formerly jailed Iranians debating what to do to their former jailer, is unmatched. Writer-director Jafar Panahi’s deeply personal film (written with script collaborators Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, and Mehdi Mahmoudian) succeeds in large part due to the elegance of its screenplay, which is funny, troubling, political, shocking, thrilling, and eerie all at once—all while seeming so in touch with reality that it could’ve been based on life.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
Prediction:
And here’s where the other main film in the Best Picture race, One Battle After Another, stakes its claim. Out of all the categories that PTA is nominated in, Best Adapted Screenplay seems like his best bet to finally break his Oscar losing streak. The script categories favor writer-directors (sorry, Bugonia), and likes to highlight skillful takes on material that isn’t a one-to-one replication (like basically all the voiceover in Train Dreams).
Preference:
And I also think One Battle After Another has got a great script behind it—though I’m more amenable to Train Dreams relying on some of its novella’s lovely prose than some of my peers. The other films here don’t quite have the oomph needed to get an edge, whether they’re the predictable take on Frankenstein, the worse version of Save The Green Planet! or the just-fine translation of Hamnet to the screen.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees: Arco, Elio, Kpop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie Or The Character Of Rain, Zootopia 2
Prediction:
Already added to the Criterion Collection and cemented as a bona fide crossover hit, Kpop Demon Hunters is the undeniable force in this year’s animated lineup. Not only is its breakout song currently stuck in my head, but it’s also got its own Oscar nomination, a good sign that voters are already thinking about this film as a major contender. Plus the film is fun! It’s frontloaded with silly faces and goofball poses from its endearing lead ladies, and though eventually succumbs to the kid-film boilerplate plot, there’s nothing wrong with some flashy professionalism filled with earworms.
Preference:
On the opposite side of the popularity scale is my pick. I can fully admit that nobody besides me watched Little Amélie Or The Character Of Rain. Hard to find, a weird and lengthy title, an art style going in the opposite direction from the hyper-detailed zeitgeist—it makes sense that this wouldn’t be the nominee people rush to. But it’s also much better than all these other movies, more heartfelt and mature than Pixar’s recent output, more delightful to look at than the zany Demon Hunters.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees: The Alabama Solution, Come See Me In The Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
Prediction:
I’m of two minds here: On one hand, The Perfect Neighbor is the most accessible of these documentaries by virtue of streaming on Netflix, while on the other, the BAFTA-winning Mr. Nobody Against Putin offers up a digestible anti-Russian regime message that I imagine will jibe with voters. But when it comes right down to it, Perfect Neighbor‘s outrage-inducing domestic criticism of neighborhood racism and loosy-goosy gun control is an easy slam-dunk topic conveyed through a thrillingly fitting form. That bodycam and security camera footage is as visceral as can be, hitting the film’s point home with a sledgehammer.
Preference:
Nowhere as strong as last year’s nominees (though none of these are bad documentaries), this year’s crop is topped by The Perfect Neighbor. The Alabama Solution‘s prisoner-shot exposé sits at the more fascinating end of things, while the weepy Apple cancer story Come See Me In The Good Light resides as the most conventional. But none of these contain the perfect storm of subject, form, and popular availability as Perfect Neighbor.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Nominees: The Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident, Sentimental Value, Sirât, The Voice Of Hind Rajab
Prediction:
A good rule to follow with films in the International category is to look for which have bled into the more domestically dominated areas of the Oscars. It Was Just An Accident got itself a Screenplay nod, while Sirât stood out with Sound, but Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent earned Best Picture nominations and major acting props. I’m going with Secret Agent here not only because I think it’s a better movie than Sentimental Value, but I also think to Oscar voters, it’s a film that reads as more “international”…for better and worse. The nose-thumbing, meta-gaming part of me thinks that, to a group of industry professionals, the Brazilian period piece simply feels more distant from the world of Hollywood than the drama about a film director dad. There’s also the fact that Sentimental Value stars Stellan Skarsgård and Elle Fanning, not exactly strangers to American films. Another major factor is the voting body’s recent history—I’m Still Here was another well-acted Brazilian political drama that came from behind last year.
Preference:
The best film of the Neon-dominated bunch this year, though, is It Was Just An Accident. Jafar Panahi’s fantastic thriller isn’t just a tight and funny drama, but a personal exorcism from a man who risks political imprisonment with every new film he makes. Blending that reality into a contained and fable-like satire is deeply impressive, and the beating heart of why that movie works.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction:
This is a category that has a chance to make history: No woman has ever won Cinematography. Ever. Sinners’ Autumn Durald Arkapaw (and the Academy) have the chance to change that here. And yet, the major indicator for this award, the one given out by the American Society Of Cinematographers, went to Michael Bauman’s thrilling work on One Battle After Another. Both these frontrunners are technically impressive: OBAA shoots in VistaVision while Sinners leaps between IMAX and Ultra Panavision 70 cameras. Aspect ratio geeks, film freaks, and theatrical viewing devotees have a “whoever loses, we win” situation on their hands, even if Sinners‘ loss at the ASC Awards seems to indicate that the Oscars will go one more year with its cinematography glass ceiling intact.
Preference:
As much as I love the shifting look of Sinners, and love Ryan Coogler’s explainer video about its aspect ratios, One Battle After Another offers a handful of sequences so deft and immersive that you feel like you’re on the run from a military madman, whether that means you’re flooring it in the desert or hoofing it across rooftops.
BEST FILM EDITING
Nominees: Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, F1, Sinners
Prediction:
Go watch the climactic car chase in One Battle After Another and try to make a case for any of these other films. The queasy rolling waves of asphalt and the zooming cars contain the same kinetic thrust as the rest of the long—but never plodding—Paul Thomas Anderson film.
Preference:
Simply for the feat of making One Battle After Another feel like one hour instead of three, Andy Jurgensen deserves some kudos. But that scene I mentioned in the highway hills is such a precise display of skill and rhythm that it’s a great way to show off the position to someone who might not get what makes great editing stand out.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction:
Sorry to the self-plagiarizing Max Richter, but even capping Hamnet with his potent “On The Nature Of Daylight” probably won’t be enough to win him the day here. Rather, recent Oppenheimer winner Ludwig Göransson is the favorite here for Sinners. Not only is Göransson’s score solid, he’s also been stumping with performances around the industry with star-musician Miles Caton.
Preference:
The best score of the year, Rob Mazurek’s excellently jazzy music for The Mastermind, wasn’t even nominated, so I’ve got to go for the bluesy sounds of Sinners, simply because it’s the most enjoyable to listen to separate from its film.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Nominees: “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless, “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters, “I Lied To You” from Sinners, “Sweet Dreams Of Joy” from Viva Verdi!, “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
Prediction:
Is this the year for Diane Warren? Certainly not. The real contenders here are Sinners, the rare live-action non-musical that centered a song, and KPop Demon Hunters, whose “Golden” has been inescapable since that film’s explosion. However, if Sinners ends up fully dominating the ceremony, it would make sense for its song—the soundtrack to the film’s showstopping sequence—to prevail as well.
Preference:
The best thing I can say about “Golden” is that I pity the filmmakers who have to try to top it for the coming Kpop Demon Hunters sequel. It’s pretty much a perfect pop ditty, and it’s also central to its film—that seems like a sure thing, even in one of the oddest categories at the Oscars.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction:
Much like the Makeup category, this is an arena where Guillermo del Toro stands tall, bloodied, and yell-asking his audience if they are not entertained. Frankenstein isn’t shot with a particularly virtuosic style, and the monster himself is mainly memorable for what a big stud he is, but it takes place in the instantly recognizable world in which del Toro sets all his productions. It’s ornate and macabre and hyper-visible in a way that the period-piece aesthetics of the other big names in this category simply aren’t.
Preference:
And I can appreciate that! The maximalist design of Frankenstein‘s world was the most enjoyable part of the movie, with its baroque laboratories and Terror-like ship. As much as One Battle After Another found amusing and subtle ways to set its larger stage, and as Marty Supreme made a New York underbelly hyper-tangible, there’s something about the explicit and obviously designed sets of Frankenstein that stick in my mind.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees: Avatar: Fire And Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
Prediction:
Few filmmakers love a below-the-line crafts category like Guillermo del Toro. The coats and dresses of Frankenstein are as meticulously put together as its mixed-meat man. Nobody has to worry about Wicked this year, thank goodness, which means that Frankenstein is up against a bunch of period pieces and a CGI-forward film where many costumes are worn by big blue aliens. It doesn’t seem like any of the outfits in Sinners or Marty Supreme are flashy enough to compete with some of the showy formalwear (and grimy monster hoodies) on display in del Toro’s fantastical throwback, so bet on his film winning here.
Preference:
The gorgeous gowns in Frankenstein are hard to deny, but nothing made me think “I should buy bigger, higher-rise pants” like Marty Supreme. It’s not just the great tailoring in the film—the outfits of the ping-pong players and the bigwigs who Marty attempts to schmooze with all help build out the immersive world that Marty is trying to climb.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR
Nominees: Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
Prediction:
The big expensive Netflix version of Frankenstein will almost certainly win here for transforming hunky Jacob Elordi into hunky Frankenstein. And sure, he looks a little like a scarred version of one of those Engineers from Prometheus. But people know and love Guillermo del Toro for this kind of pretty grotesquerie, so don’t expect much boat-rocking here, even from the people who put hair on The Rock in The Smashing Machine.
Preference:
That said, nothing beats the delightfully goopy, gory effects of The Ugly Stepsister. The horrific tactility of broken noses and tapeworms made the movie, much like the nastiness of The Substance helped it win the award last year. That the smaller film was nominated at all is already a huge win, and a nod towards horror’s increasing prominence in these categories.
BEST SOUND
Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât
Prediction:
Sound and Editing are often buddy-buddy categories, but that can go out the window when a film is built around big, loud, immersive soundscapes—like the roaring engines of F1. While One Battle After Another is my pick for Editing and does include a car chase, it’s a far more subtle affair than the AAA commercial it’s in competition with. And when it comes to Oscars awarding Sound, subtlety isn’t usually a selling point.
Preference:
A film that lives and dies by its sound—and by that metric at least, lives—is Sirât. The “rave at the end of the world” movie not only implements its electronic music into its sound design, but has a few twisty set pieces that rely on perfectly calibrated sounds
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees: Avatar: Fire And Ash, F1, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
Prediction:
Sequels, vampires, and replications of real life fill the FX ranks this year, but sadly, only one of them is an Avatar movie. James Cameron’s first two trips to Pandora won this award and it’s not like they’ve started looking worse—that’s something reserved for rebooted dinosaur monstrosities. While those fast cars and lost buses might look great, they really can’t compete with what is effectively an animated feature, built from the ground up by VFX.
Preference:
Some of these films have some really impressive sequences (Sinners‘ whole twin thing is a miracle), but there’s something about the immense dedication to the FX craft that makes Avatar: Fire And Ash impossible to deny. If Cameron wants to keep spending all his money on making these ridiculous CG epics as jaw-droppingly extravagant as possible, more power to him.
BEST CASTING
Nominees: Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
Prediction:
A new category, and one long overdue—but, by extension, one hard to predict. What does this Academy value about casting? A phenomenal ensemble of interesting faces? Career longevity? The best newly discovered newcomers? My guess is that the latter two are where voters will lean, rewarding the fresh faces front-and-center of Sinners and One Battle After Another. I’ll throw my hat in the ring for legendary casting director Francine Maisler, who gathered a group including musician Miles Caton, Delroy Lindo, and Wunmi Mosaku.
Preference:
However, if I had my druthers, we’d be appreciating the wide roster of weirdos tapped by Marty Supreme. It’s not just that it’s full of interesting names—Abel Ferrara, David Mamet, Penn Jillette, and Fran Drescher—but that it mixes and matches movie stars with Mr. Wonderful, rappers with NBA stars, non-professional NYC oddballs with Hollywood royalty. It all contributes to the atmosphere of stressed-out reality that the Safdies have made their calling card, where real life is boiling over on an unattended stovetop.