Nobody wants to say the M-word ahead of this crucial Quebec byelection next month
OTTAWA — Bloc Québécois House Leader Christine Normandin dismissed the idea that her party may be the one to block Prime Minister Mark Carney’s path to forming a majority government in a crucial byelection held in the suburbs of Montreal next month.
“The idea of halting a majority is a narrative that is, of course, not ours,” Normandin said on Monday. “What we’re hearing on the ground… is that people in Terrebonne want a voice to represent them in Parliament, not a voice to represent the government in Terrebonne.”
Terrebonne is a largely francophone riding located north-east of Montreal which has voted Bloc in every federal election since 1993 — except last year, when Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste beat Bloc incumbent Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné by one vote after a judicial recount.
Last month, the Supreme Court of Canada annulled the vote in the riding after it was found that a Bloc voter had their mail-in ballot returned to them because of a misprint on the return envelope. Therefore, the highest court of the country ordered a redo of the vote.
Carney announced on Sunday that three byelections would be taking place on April 13 . That includes two Toronto-area byelections which are safe Liberal seats and Terrebonne. The Liberals need to win all three to hold a one-person majority of 172 seats in Parliament.
Philippe J. Fournier, founder of the polling aggregator website 338Canada, said it was a “stroke of genius” for the Liberals to call for a byelection to be held on the Monday after their party convention in Montreal, which will mean lots of exposure prior to the vote.
With Carney’s government riding high in the polls , even in Quebec, having that media visibility for the Liberal leader in those final days will only be beneficial for his party as voters are headed to the polls, said Fournier.
“So, if the Liberals can’t win Terrebonne under these conditions, they probably will never win it again,” he said.
But voters in the riding have a long history of voting for different shades of blue. Provincially, the Parti Québécois won a byelection in Terrebonne last year, defeating the CAQ. Terrebonne Mayor Mathieu Traversy was also previously a PQ representative.
Still, Fournier’s projections indicate for now a toss-up between the Bloc and the Liberals. He said the end result will come down to the ground game in Terrebonne for each party.
“What we’ve been hearing on the ground, when we’re knocking on doors — and I’ve been doing lots of that — are very local questions,” said the Bloc’s Normandin.
She mentioned the concerns around expropriations in Terrebonne, where the high-speed rail project is set to pass, or the calls for a public inquiry into the CURAM benefit payment software, which the Bloc said has affected old age security payments for seniors.
“Those are questions that matter to the people of Terrebonne,” said Normandin.
“It’s not up to them to give a majority to a government that’s already acting like a majority government,” she added.
In normal times, Fournier said the Bloc’s natural storyline would be to want to stop the Liberals from forming a majority government. But these are not normal times, and many voters — even traditional Bloc voters — have expressed wanting more stability right now.
Fournier suggested the upcoming vote will help test the waters for the Liberals.
“Normally, a byelection in Terrebonne would not be a crucial election, but this could tell us when the next general election would be held,” he said.
“If the Bloc holds on to this, it gives the Bloc a little momentum, it gives the PQ, probably provincially, a little momentum, and it could change the dynamic.”
Whatever the result on April 13, the Liberals could find themselves with another opportunity to secure a majority if longtime Montreal NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice decides to run under the provincial banner of Québec Solidaire later this year.
Boulerice refused to talk about his intentions during an unrelated press conference on the situation in Iran.
Even though Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has not yet announced his candidates in the three byelections, he said his party will be squarely focused on affordability. He will also be making the case for keeping the Liberals to a minority government.
“If Mr. Carney wins a majority, he will hike the prices of groceries. Even worse, he will continue to hike the size of the deficit and free criminals in our streets, and he will never fix the Liberal immigration system that has caused chaos,” said Poilievre in French.
“If you want affordability and security at home, and to be masters in your own home, you need to vote Conservative.”
National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com
Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our politics newsletter, First Reading, here.