Final Oscars 2026 Predictions: Who Will Win & Who Could Surprise?

The 98th Academy Awards are less than a week away, and several of the most anticipated categories are still completely up in the air. This year's awards season has been much longer than most, with this year's ceremony happening two weeks later than the previous one.

This extended window has given actors, directors, and craftspeople even more time to campaign for the awards—and consequently, we've seen frontrunners change several times since the season kicked off at this year's Golden Globes ceremony.

There's still lots of uncertainty around this year's Oscars, but thankfully, the precursory televised awards have given experts a valuable idea of which way the voters are leaning so far. The past few days have even seen many voters release their anonymous ballots, helping us paint a clearer picture of which films and stars will ultimately come out on top on Sunday night.

Best Picture

This year's Best Picture race ultimately comes down to two contenders—Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler's Sinners. There's data pointing in both directions: PTA's film has picked up the most 'Best Picture' equivalent awards at the precursors (BAFTAs, Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, etc), but Coogler's blockbuster has undeniable momentum since it broke the record to become the most-nominated film of all time.

Both of these movies stand a serious chance at Best Picture, but One Battle After Another feels like the safest choice given its strong performance throughout awards season and its predicted haul in other categories.

Predicted Winner: One Battle After Another

Potential Surprise: Sinners

Best Actor

Best Actor is another two-horse race this year. The category is being fought between Timothée Chalamet, who's swept up almost all the precursors so far, and Michael B. Jordan, who took home the SAG Award last week and is experiencing a historic surge in momentum. Chalamet has clearly campaigned the hardest and his press tour has been the talking point of this year's awards season—which should give him the edge—but Jordan has so much respect and adoration among the industry that he's clearly posing a formidable threat. If Sinners ends up overperforming and taking home Best Picture, Jordan could absolutely come along with it.

Predicted Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Potential Surprise: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actor

This year's Best Supporting Actor lineup is a little more open, with Sean Penn's performance in One Battle After Another seemingly emerging as the frontrunner in recent weeks. He took home the BAFTA and the SAG Award—the latter of which is typically considered the most important precursors for all acting categories. However, he faces tough competition; Stellan Skarsgård already won the Golden Globe back in January, and Benicio del Toro could ultimately end up splitting votes with his One Battle After Another co-star to give Skarsgård the opening he needs to win.

Predicted Winner: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Potential Surprise: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Actress

Best Actress feels like one of the only categories that can be confidently called this year, and it's definitely going to Jessie Buckley. The actress has won every single precursor so far, including the Golden Globes, SAG Awards, BAFTAs, and Critics Choice Awards. Anybody else winning would be a record-breaking surprise, and Buckley completely deserves the victory for her historic turn in Hamnet.

Predicted Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Potential Surprise: Nobody

Best Supporting Actress

Despite its record-breaking sixteen nominations, it's not easy to predict which categories Sinners will actually win. One Battle After Another seems like the frontrunner in most lineups, but Sinners surely has to win something given its historic performance. Wunmi Mosaku could be that necessary lifeline for Sinners, as Best Supporting Actress is wide open. The field is essentially a battle between Mosaku, Amy Madigan for Weapons, and Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another.

Madigan has performed excellently throughout awards season, but her chances are ultimately hurt by the fact that Weapons wasn't nominated in many other categories. Taylor has also taken home several awards already, but it feels unlikely that One Battle After Another will take home both supporting categories alongside its potential Picture and Director wins. This leaves the door open for Mosaku to represent for Sinners.

Predicted Winner: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Potential Surprise: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson is the clear frontrunner for Best Director on two fronts: he's taken home the most precursor awards (including the crucial DGA Award), and his film is the apparent frontrunner for Best Picture. These two facts make him an obvious favorite, even though Ryan Coogler definitely poses a threat due to Sinners' cultural and critical momentum.

Predicted Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Potential Surprise: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Predicted Winners in Other Categories

Best Original Screenplay: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Adapted Screenplay: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Best Casting: Sinners

Best Cinematography: Dan Laustsen, Frankenstein

Best Costume Design: Kate Hawley, Frankenstein

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Frankenstein

Best Production Design: Frankenstein

Best Editing: F1

Best Sound: F1

Best Visual Effects: Avatar: Fire & Ash

Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson, Sinners