Do Cyprus’ British bases have a future?

Although the targeting of RAF Akrotiri by a Lebanon-fired drone has rekindled the chatter about the British bases’ presence painting a target on Cyprus, analysts don’t anticipate a change in the status of the Sovereign Base Areas – and in fact think it highly unlikely for the foreseeable future.

The Sovereign Base Areas (SBA) are two parts on Cyprus – Akrotiri on the southernmost peninsula, and Dhekelia in the east – with a combined territory of 99 square miles, over which the United Kingdom exercises sovereignty. They were created by the Treaty of Establishment 1960, the international agreement granting the Republic of Cyprus its independence.

The Cyprus government has this week grumbled about the lack of security coordination and communication in relation to last Sunday’s drone strike – rumoured to have targeted an American hangar on the grounds of Akrotiri. Residents in the SBA complained of not being alerted.

To mollify the complaints coming from Nicosia, but also from critics in the UK, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said they were “taking every measure” to protect Cyprus.

“I want to be really clear to everybody in Cyprus that we’re taking every measure that is needed to protect them, to protect the airbase, along with the other places in the region,” Starmer told a press conference at his official residence in London.

On Friday, two British AW159 Wildcat helicopters with anti-drone capabilities landed at RAF Akrotiri, reinforcing the island’s defences. British defence secretary John Healey had earlier said the helicopters would be integrated into the island’s air defence system alongside allied assets.

The deployment is part of a broader UK operation that includes the forthcoming arrival of the HMS Dragon Type 45 destroyer and previously deployed F-35 fighter jets.

Earlier this, week, Healey met his Cypriot counterpart Vasilis Palmas. Their statements later suggested the two sides had worked out the kinks in their relationship.

But one analyst suspects it may have been a case of performative politics.

“I’m not so sure there’s real friction between Cyprus and the UK over this security incident at Akrotiri – more likely Cyprus is going through the motions, paying lip service,” said associate professor at UCLan Cyprus Nasia Hadjigeorgiou.

An international law expert, Hadjigeorgiou points out that Cyprus has never really done anything to challenge the status of the British bases.

“Even after Brexit, we didn’t seize the opportunity,” she told the Cyprus Mail.

The why is perhaps not difficult to understand.

“Britain is a guarantor power, so obviously Cyprus doesn’t want to upset or alienate it by challenging the status of the bases. Then you’d have two guarantor powers – including Turkey – at odds with you.”

For the expert, the only way to renegotiate the status of the bases would have to be part of a comprehensive settlement on Cyprus – because it also impacts Turkish Cypriots.

“Frankly, there’s not much appetite among Greek Cypriot politicians to renegotiate the bases’ status. But even if they did, the British would be sure to push back.”

Even Akel, which from time to time agitates about the bases, did nothing concrete during their four years of power from 2008 to 2013.

Still, not all is rosy. Hadjigeorgiou notes that the SBA’s first announcement after the drone strike spoke of measures to protect SBA personnel – but no mention of the locals living there.

But the bases are sovereign British territory, so therefore technically this was attacked – not Cyprus per se.

“Yes, however thousands of Cypriots live on SBA territory and expect protection.”

The expert recalled how Cyprus did not follow through on an advisory opinion issued by the International Court of Justice regarding the status of the Chagos archipelago, hosting British bases, in Mauritius.

The 2019 ICJ ruling – not binding – concluded that the process of decolonisation of Mauritius was not lawfully completed when that country acceded to independence and that “the United Kingdom is under an obligation to bring to an end its administration of the Chagos Archipelago as rapidly as possible.”

Subsequently, Mauritius and the UK struck up a deal, where Mauritius would get back the territory and lease it to the UK – meaning Mauritius has some say and control on what goes on there.

Britain agreed, but then because of pressure from the United States (which stations assets on Chagos), the deal was not enforced.

“We might have done the same – sought an end to British sovereignty on the SBA territories, and them leased them to the Brits. But we didn’t. Cyprus never formally raised the issue of a lease,” Hadjigeorgiou said.

“If I had to guess, the current noise over the SBA will blow over once the current Iran crisis is finished.”

On Friday, Christodoulides made a generic-cryptic remark, saying that “nothing has been ruled regarding the future” of the British bases in Cyprus.

There was little meat to the comment, as if he was playing to segments of the Cypriot public unhappy with the presence of the SBAs.

But Rasit Pertev, a former chief negotiator for the Turkish Cypriot side, said that in light of the recent security incident at Akrotiri, the British bases “are becoming untenable” on the island.

In an email, Pertev highlighted how modern warfare and tech have changed the situation.

“In an era of long-range missiles, precision weapons and drone warfare, the areas hosting military installations linked to regional conflicts can rapidly become targets. Cyprus – though not a participant in those conflicts – increasingly risks being caught in retaliation or escalation arising from wars far beyond its shores.”

He argues that since the UK has “little incentive” to change current arrangements, the impetus for change must come from Greek and Turkish Cypriot civil society, academia and the media.

Pertev listed four steps that could be taken: first, a nuclear weapons-free Cyprus initiative, including verification by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and legal scrutiny of base activities covering environmental protection, public safety and operational transparency.

Second, civil society actors from both communities should develop a coordinated advocacy effort aimed initially at limiting and ultimately closing the bases. Joint delegations could present concerns and policy proposals to institutions such as the European Parliament and the United Nations, framing the issue as affecting the safety and stability of the island.

Third, a legal challenge based on public security considerations could be pursued in international or European forums, arguing that the use of the bases for regional military operations exposes Cyprus’ civilian population to disproportionate security risks without democratic consent.

Finally, an islandwide referendum could be organised on whether the military bases should continue operating on the island.

“Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots have never been asked to decide on their presence,” Pertev said of the bases.

He does acknowledge the complications, particularly in the current circumstances. Christodoulides has anchored part of his foreign policy strategy on close military and security cooperation with Western partners, particularly the United Kingdom and the United States.

This alignment may limit the political space for challenging the military role and activities of the British bases, making the role of civil society and independent institutions even more important.

“Ultimately,” said Pertev, “the question is simple: should Cyprus remain a strategic asset for others – or a secure home for its own people?”

In domestic politics, it remains to be seen whether the issue of the bases gets much traction in the election campaign ahead of May’s parliamentary ballot.

Speaking for herself, Melanie Steliou, an MP candidate on the Akel ticket, pulled no punches, calling the bases “a remnant of a colonial past”.

Expecting a change in the status quo to come from above is unrealistic, she said.

“Things will only change if we push for it. The government – especially the current administration – won’t do anything. That’s why people have to keep up the pressure.”

Steliou participated in a recent protest held on the summit of Mount Troodos, where Britain has a spy station that it shares with American intelligence.

“Look, the British bases on Cyprus decided on their own to host American forces. That wasn’t part of the deal. You just cannot put the population at risk. There are villages around the bases, people in danger potentially.

“What if next time, if there is a next time, a missile hits the Akrotiri base? What if it misses the intended target? So let’s not nitpick. When I hear people say it was just a drone, no big deal…they’re missing the point.”

Steliou stresses that her beef is not with the SBAs per se.

“I don’t want any foreign bases on Cyprus, period.”