The 2026 Oscars: ‘Sinners,’ ‘One Battle After Another’ In A Tight Race, According To Anonymous Ballot Data

The 2026 Oscars are set for March 15, and several standout Black stars and films are in the mix for the industry’s biggest prizes. Among them are Michael B. Jordan for his performance in Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s blockbuster horror hit, and Teyana Taylor for Paul Thomas Anderson’s sweeping political drama One Battle After Another.  With excitement building across Hollywood, a rare glimpse into an anonymous Oscar ballot obtained by Variety is offering new clues about how the race could unfold on awards night.

What is an anonymous Oscar ballot?

Anonymous Oscar ballots — in which Academy voters privately share how they voted and why without revealing their identities — have become something of a ritual in Hollywood, offering candid and sometimes surprising insight from the very people deciding the industry’s top honors. Final ballots for Academy members were due by 5 p.m. PT on Thursday, March 5, 2026, and early conversations around those votes suggest that a few films and performances are dominating the conversation.

Sinners and One Battle After Another are in a tight race for Best Picture

At the center of the Best Picture race are two powerhouse contenders: Sinners and One Battle After Another. By a wide margin, the films appear to be the top two choices among voters, leaving little room for “a clear third-place contender,” Variety noted in its report published March 5. 

“What makes the contest especially compelling is the psychology of voters who admire both films. In at least six conversations with ballot-sharing voters, a pattern emerged: Many said some version of, “‘One Battle After Another’ is going to win best picture, but I voted for ‘Sinners,’” the report added.

The competition between the two has effectively consumed the race, creating one of the most closely watched showdowns of the season. Notably, many voters appear especially taken with the scale, storytelling, and excitement that Coogler delivers in his epic film. As one anonymous voter put it, “Sinners is the movie that made me remember what a theater is for.”

Data from an interactive ballot shared by Vanity Fair reflects that enthusiasm. According to the survey, Sinners currently leads the Best Picture category with 43% of the vote, while One Battle After Another trails with 31%. While far from definitive, the numbers hint that Coogler’s genre-bending film could be building the kind of late momentum that often defines Oscar surprises.

Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio are at the top of the Best Actor race

The Best Actor race is proving to be one of the most scattered categories this year, with support spread across multiple contenders. Still, Michael B. Jordan has built enough backing for his performance in Sinners to emerge as a serious favorite for his first Academy Award. His intense turn in the film appears to be resonating strongly with voters looking to recognize a career-defining performance.

Jordan’s strongest competition may come from Leonardo DiCaprio, who earned votes for his role in One Battle After Another, and Ethan Hawke for his performance in Blue Moon, Variety noted. Both actors appear to have meaningful pockets of support. Meanwhile, votes for Timothée Chalamet in Marty Supreme and Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent were far less prominent in the 2026 Oscars ballot sample, suggesting their campaigns may not have gained the traction some expected.

Delroy Lindo is a strong contender in the Supporting Actor category for Sinners

In the supporting actor race, the field appears to have narrowed to three major contenders: Delroy Lindo for Sinners, Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, and Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value. 

Early ballots showed strong support for Lindo, with Skarsgård not far behind and relatively little movement for Penn. However, the final stretch of voting told a slightly different story. In the last 48 hours before ballots closed, Penn appeared to gain late momentum among voters, making him a plausible winner. If he were to pull off the victory, it would mark his third Oscar, adding to his previous wins for Mystic River and Milk.

Wunmi Mosaku has a chance of winning Best Supporting Actress over Teyana Taylor, ballot shows

The Supporting Actress category may be one of the most intriguing races of the night. Amy Madigan’s performance in Weapons has earned considerable goodwill, particularly among Los Angeles-based industry voters, and her win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards suggests real strength. Still, another contender appears to be quietly building momentum.

Wunmi Mosaku, who stars in Sinners as the soulful and serene Hoodoo healer Annie, is emerging as a surprising frontrunner. According to the anonymous ballot obtained by Variety, Mosaku seems to be drawing support from two different groups: committed Sinners voters backing the film across multiple categories and supporters of One Battle After Another who appear eager to honor another standout performance elsewhere on the ballot.

In several cases, voters who supported One Battle After Another for Best Picture, Director, and Actor still chose Mosaku over her fellow Supporting Actress nominee, Teyana Taylor. The same trend is evident in the Vanity Fair ballot for the 2026 Oscars.

Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson are in the lead for Best Director

The Best Director race mirrors the Best Picture showdown. Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson appear to be locked in a tight contest, with the Vanity Fair ballot showing Coogler holding a slight lead. If that momentum continues through Oscar night, Coogler could walk away with one of the evening’s biggest prizes, capping a remarkable awards season for Sinners and setting the stage for a dramatic finish when the envelopes are finally opened. 

But according to the Variety data, it could be anyone’s game. A few anonymous ballot members said, “Paul Thomas Anderson is going to win, but I voted for Ryan Coogler.” It looks like we’ll just have to wait and see. 

Remember, this ballot data isn’t definitive. We’ll find out the true winners on March 15 when the 2026 Oscars finally take place. 

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