Guest Post:  Two Years In, the Government Is Out of Excuses 

A guest post by Chris Scott:

 We’re now well past the point where the coalition can blame everything on the mess they inherited. That line worked in 2024. It even worked — just — in 2025. But with an election looming in November, voters are no longer interested in origin stories. They want outcomes. 

This government came in promising discipline, delivery, and a return to the basics. And to be fair, the bar was low. After years of bureaucratic sprawl and policy drift, simply turning the ship around was going to take time. But two years is not a short runway in politics. It’s half a term. It’s long enough for the public to form a view about whether a government is competent or just busy. 

And right now, the mood feels… unsettled. 

People aren’t demanding miracles. They’re demanding visible progress. Safer streets. A health system that isn’t permanently in crisis mode. Schools that teach rather than experiment. Infrastructure that doesn’t crumble every time it rains sideways. These aren’t ideological demands — they’re basic expectations of a functioning state. 

The political danger for the coalition is that the narrative is slipping away from them. If voters decide the government is “trying hard but not delivering,” that’s fatal. Elections aren’t won on effort; they’re won on results people can see without needing a press release to explain them. 

Meanwhile, the opposition — written off after the 2023 drubbing — has rediscovered its energy. They smell opportunity. They don’t need to be brilliant; they just need to look like a plausible alternative. And if the government doesn’t sharpen its act soon, that bar might be low enough for them to clear. 

The coalition still has time. But not much. The window for “we’re fixing the mess” is closed. The window for “here’s what we’ve achieved” is open — but only if they can actually point to achievements. 

Voters are pragmatic. They’ll reward competence. They’ll punish drift. And unless the government can show momentum in the next few months, November could be a very long night. 

But even that may not be enough 

Here’s the uncomfortable truth: even if the government does tidy up the books and patch the potholes, it still won’t solve the deeper problem. The world is about to change faster than any tidy, incremental political programme can keep up with. 

The election won’t just be a referendum on competence. It will be a test of who actually understands the technological wave about to reshape everything from productivity to public services. While New Zealand debates procurement processes and ministry restructures, other countries are retooling their economies around automation, AI‑driven productivity, and digital infrastructure that scales human capability rather than merely reallocating it. 

New Zealand can’t afford to sleepwalk into that future. We’re a small, distant, low‑productivity economy. We don’t win by being bigger; we win by being smarter. And right now, we’re not even in the race. 

The next government — whichever colour it is — won’t be judged on how well it manages the status quo. It will be judged on whether it grasps that the status quo is already obsolete. AI‑enabled productivity, automated service delivery, and digital leverage aren’t optional extras. They’re the only realistic path to rising wages, better public services, and a state that can actually afford the things voters expect. 

New Zealand doesn’t need a miracle. It needs a government that understands the scale of the opportunity — and the cost of missing it. 

A country that can move fast — if it chooses to 

The irony is that New Zealand is perfectly positioned to benefit from this shift. A small country can move faster than a large one. We can adopt new tools, redesign public services, and build regulatory frameworks that reward innovation rather than smother it. But that requires political imagination, not just managerial competence. 

Imagine a government that treated AI not as a threat to be regulated into submission, but as a force multiplier for everything the state struggles to deliver. Faster consenting. Smarter health triage. Automated compliance. Real‑time data for infrastructure planning. Public services that scale without ballooning payrolls. Productivity gains that don’t require importing another 200,000 people. 

None of this is science fiction. Other countries are already doing it. The question is whether New Zealand wants to be a fast follower or a slow casualty. 

Conclusion: the future is arriving — politely, but firmly 

The 2026 election won’t be won by the party with the tidiest spreadsheet or the sharpest attack line. It will be won by the party that understands the world is about to accelerate — and has the courage to say so. 

New Zealand doesn’t need to panic. It just needs to look up from the potholes long enough to notice the rest of the world is building hovercraft. Figuratively, at least. For now. 

If the political class can’t see the wave coming, voters might decide it’s time to find someone who can surf.

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