CaughtOffside’s Transfer Fit rating explained: Michael Olise to Liverpool high, Sandro Tonali to Arsenal low

Transfers are a big part of football, and it’s every bit as chaotic and unpredictable as the beautiful game on the pitch that we all know and love.

Huge amounts of work happens behind the scenes via scouts, sporting directors, agents, and intermediaries, to determine if a player is the right fit for their club, both in terms of what they can offer on the pitch, and if they’re a realistic and affordable target.

When it comes to covering football transfer news, we know fans are desperate to find out inside information on the players their teams are chasing, but also to gain an insight into what this player could offer, and realistic expectations about how good a piece of business it could be.

This kind of analysis is going on inside football clubs all the time, and while there can never be a totally foolproof method for guaranteeing every signing will be a success, our years of experience in covering the transfer market has afforded us some insight into what clubs are doing to assess players and how that guides their recruitment decisions.

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With that in mind, we aim to provide our readers with a scoring system of our own, to help contextualise player links and to give fans not just a news story, but hopefully a glimpse into what a deal means for their team’s future.

We’ve put together the following five categories, each of which we’ll rate out of five for a total score of 25 for each player. The higher the score the better, and these are the categories we’ve chosen as the most significant, with a full breakdown of what they mean…

Transfer fee

This one’s pretty simple – how much is this player going to cost? Are they already at a big club, with a long-term contract? If so, it’s probably going to end up being too expensive to be worth it. Transfer fees and asking prices can obviously change depending on certain clauses, if the player is unhappy, and if a club sees another similar player suddenly moving for a higher or lower price than expected.

Performance

This one’s pretty important – how well is Player X actually performing? We’ll do our best to crunch the numbers, whether that’s goals and assists for attacking players, or tackles and interceptions for defensive players. This will be based on recent form, because fans deserve to know if the big name they’re being linked with has actually been well below par recently. Even a goal machine like Erling Haaland can go through a dry spell, and whether that’s a temporary blip or the start of a long-term decline is not always obvious, but in the here and now it’s something that has to be taken into account.

Achievements

While recent performances are important, there will also be times when a club is looking for someone even with the knowledge that their best years might be behind them. While there’s often so much talk of the need to find the best talents before they hit their peak, there’s sometimes also a clear need for adding an experienced old head to balance out the youth of a squad, and to provide guidance on the training ground and in the dressing room as much as on the pitch. Of course, some players will already have plenty of games and trophies under their belt at a relatively young age, which just adds to their value.

Career phase

Is a player just breaking through and causing a sensation? Have they just hit their peak and find themselves a big fish ready to leave a small pond? Do they look a bit too expensive when they have maybe two or three years left at the top at most? We’ll do our best to convey that with this rating.

Squad need

Are we looking at a player who’s going to immediately prove a major upgrade on what the club already have, or are they a bit of a luxury player? Is this transfer target perhaps a complete waste of time because they’ve spent their career playing as a wing-back but are now being linked with a team who play with a back four? We’ll use this category to evaluate how much Player X is actually needed by whoever’s being linked.

Weak, medium, or strong?

After taking those all into account, we’ll give a total score out of 25 to grade how strong a fit this player is.

0-8 = LOW

9-17 = MEDIUM

18-25 = HIGH

Michael Olise Transfer Fit rating

So, to take one example doing the rounds at the moment, Michael Olise is being linked with Liverpool and he’s a world class player, approaching his prime, whose only issue is probably his price tag.

Unsurprisingly, this gets a high score from us…Olise would be a near-perfect signing for Liverpool right now!

Julian Alvarez Transfer Fit rating

While it might be intuitive  to think of Atletico Madrid striker Julian Alvarez as a tempting target for Arsenal, who lack a world class striker, our verdict gives a slightly more mixed picture, taking into account his huge price tag and recent dip in form.

Sandro Tonali Transfer Fit rating

Finally, an example of a signing we wouldn’t recommend for Arsenal is Newcastle’s Sandro Tonali.

It’s important to note that this does not mean he’s a bad player by any stretch of the imagination, and perhaps for a different club we’d have him a much higher score, but he’s been strongly linked with Arsenal in recent times and it’s hard to justify it based on his likely cost and their current squad needs.

The post CaughtOffside’s Transfer Fit rating explained: Michael Olise to Liverpool high, Sandro Tonali to Arsenal low appeared first on CaughtOffside.