Some early MLB wagering tips: Bet high on Bregman, low on Nationals

LAS VEGAS — I had exited the M Resort, trekked across the parking lot, slid into the white Challenger and ignited her cylinders. I did not, however, shift out of park.

Just when I thought I was out and done buying MLB positions at the William Hill sportsbook inside the M on Feb. 27, Tommy Lorenzo’s words about hapless Washington echoed in my ears.

And pulled me back in.

I invested in a +500 ticket on the Nationals finishing with the fewest victories this season.

Based on Lorenzo’s advice from Dec. 28, I had bet that they would record fewer than 69.5 wins. Employing another of the Southern California handicapper’s tactics, I also tied that to other future parlays.

Twenty-five days later, Washington, with a new and young hierarchy, seemed to boost its downward trajectory by trading MacKenzie Gore, its best starting pitcher, to Texas for five prospects.

Many people wagered against the Nats, whose win total has plummeted to 65.5.

Price is right

Lorenzo wasn’t finished with Washington. At Circa Sports, he doubled down on downgrading it, wagering at +950 odds, or risk $100 to win $950, that it will record the fewest wins in 2026.

Following one of the sharpest of my baseball sources, I grabbed that +500 ducat; the very edge of value, Lorenzo informed me.

I had discussed advantage MLB plays with Lorenzo for my Jan. 11 column, when he revealed his total lack of faith in the Nats organization.

At DraftKings, Colorado is the -400 favorite to finish with the least amount of wins, then the White Sox (+700), Nats (+750), Angels (17-1) and Cardinals (28-1).

Odds and prices subject to change.

Over the last five seasons, the Rockies have averaged 61 victories, the Nats 65.5, the Angels 71.6. Over the previous three years, the White Sox averaged 54 wins.

Lorenzo maintains that the Nats’ pitching rotation is as bad, or worse, than Colorado’s. Plus, Washington’s bullpen, which registered an MLB-worst 5.59 ERA a year ago, “has had no upgrades,” he says.

“The price is right on the Nationals, who are in total rebuild mode, to have the worst MLB record.”

Lizard king

Lorenzo is bullish about Phillies starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo, a southpaw from Peru with the Jim Morrison-like moniker.

Lorenzo got 33-to-1 odds on Luzardo winning the NL Cy Young Award. With an MLB-best 1.97 ERA (but a 10-10 record), Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes won that honor last year.

So Lorenzo also grabbed 50-1 on Luzardo leading MLB in pitching victories. Soon afterward, the Westgate SuperBook shaved those odds to 30-1.

Early Sunday night, back at the M, I nabbed a Luzardo most-wins ticket at 33-1, doubling my investment for a Lorenzo-like return.

“Luzardo has a great bullpen,” Lorenzo says, “a fantastic defense behind him and a very strong team in the Phillies that helps him get wins.

“He was fifth in MLB in wins [at 15, tied with two others] last year, and a slight uptick to that will put him right in the mix for most wins.”

Lorenzo liked that Luzardo incorporated a slurve into his repertoire in the second half last season.

“And his numbers were incredibly good,” Lorenzo says. “His swinging-strike rate was even better than Skenes’ for the second half.”

Roman fall

Lorenzo also locked in on Red Sox youngster Roman Anthony belting under 20.5 homers at BetMGM, under 21.5 at Boomer’s, the new Nevada book with which Joe Asher is involved. Anthony’s 67% contact rate concerns Lorenzo.

“I don’t like seeing such a low rate in young players expected to continue to ascend, statistically,” Lorenzo says. “Anthony has high ground-ball tendencies and was fortunate, last season, with a .404 BABIP, which inflated his stats.

“He’s young and with injury risk, so under home runs is another way to fade a hyped-up Roman Anthony.”

Another is in head-to-head dinger competition, in which Lorenzo invested in new Cubs third baseman Alex Bregman, at -125, to finish with more than Anthony (even) at BetMGM.

“Only injury would keep Bregman from beating Anthony,” Lorenzo says. “Bregman missed nearly 50 games with an injured quad, and when he returned it really took a toll on his power, which was outstanding before the injury.

“If healthy, he gets this fairly easily. He’ll hit plenty of homers in Wrigley [Field].”

The SuperBook has Tampa Bay’s projected wins total at 77.5, and the Rays averaged 78.5 the last two seasons. Lorenzo favors their top three starters and venue.

“With [Shane] McClanahan among them, needing to stay healthy,” he says. “The Rays always coach up their relievers, and they leave that band-box minor-league stadium; Tropicana [Field] always plays to their pitching strengths.”

Tidbits

In the World Baseball Classic, Lorenzo likes Venezuela, specifically a small play at +140, to win Pool D.

“It’s the only competitive pool,” he says, “where you can get plus money on a team that can actually win the group. Venezuela has got [Ronald] Acuna, [Eugenio] Suarez and [Jackson] Chourio.”

When Shohei Ohtani committed to Team Samurai, I committed to Japan, at about +340, in straight tickets and mixed with various future parlays.

The Japanese have won three of the five WBC tournaments and are the defending champs.

† I also nibbled on a 30-1 ticket on Oklahoma, with sterling ERA and batting-average figures, to win the College World Series. I’ll update collegiate plays and the rest of my MLB portfolio in two months.

† Lorenzo takes the Giants as a sleeper and favors Tyler Mahle, who’ll either be third or fourth in their rotation.

“He should do very well pitching in that ballpark,” Lorenzo says, “with Logan Webb and Robbie Ray in front of him. The Padres are very shallow with starting pitching, so I see them regressing a bit.”

Finally . . .

Pittsburgh went 71-91 last season. Its initial wins total of 72.5 had ballooned to 78.5, which triggered Lorenzo to recommend an under bet to followers of his popular Cover the Weekend podcast.

“They have an exciting young team,” he says. “Skenes is a Cy Young favorite for a reason, and it’s been fun watching 19-year-old Konnor Griffin hit bombs in spring training.

“But there are red flags here that have me doubting an eight- to nine-win improvement from last season.”

In the rotation, he notes mediocrity, after Skenes, in Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, Jose Urquidy and Braxton Ashcraft, and Jared Jones might not return until early June.

Lorenzo would be more optimistic had Pittsburgh inked “one of the many solid free-agent starting pitchers in the offseason.” Signing Marcell Ozuna helped, “but the Pirates are still a year away from really surging.”

From the South Point on Tuesday, I told Lorenzo that Pittsburgh’s win total had hit 80. Since director Chris Andrews hails from Pittsburgh, perhaps that alone has attracted all of that positive Pirates action? Lorenzo expects the Brewers, Cubs and Reds to all finish with records of .500 or better.

“It is extremely rare to have a division with four teams at .500 or better,” he says. “With the South Point number at 80, you’re basically betting that the Pirates will be at, or over, .500.

“Exciting team, but I just can’t get there.”