Opinion: State’s Democrats could sleep better if voters could rank gubernatorial choices

California might be facing an unexpected choice for governor this fall. The successor to Gov. Gavin Newsom could come down to two Republicans.

It might be hard to imagine California electing a Republican governor given that Donald Trump’s approval rating here is around 25%. But polling by the Public Policy Institute of California and others show no clear Democratic front runner among the crowded field. Meanwhile, with exactly two Republicans at or near the top of the polls, there’s much less GOP vote splitting. Given our state’s unique top-two primary system, there’s a very real possibility that the vast Democratic field splits the vote and two Republicans end up on the November ballot.

This is the nightmare scenario for California Democrats. It would leave voters selecting from two Republicans who potentially earned less than 40% of the primary vote combined.

Party conventions often help narrow the field to a handful of frontrunners, but that didn’t happen at the state Democratic party convention in late February. Now it may be down to party insiders and donors pressuring candidates to drop out of the race before the June primary. This would be like a return to the days of smoke-filled rooms where party bigwigs picked who appeared on the ballot.

California voters adopted the top-two system in 2010 with hopes that it would give independents a voice and encourage candidates to reach beyond their base toward consensus and coalitions. Yet when the system is over-run with candidates, it can have the opposite effect, producing a fractured majority and two unrepresentative finalists.

The good news is that it would be easy to tweak the top-two system so that it functions the way that voters intended. Perhaps the easiest and best solution would be adopting a “top-four” model similar to the one adopted by Alaska voters in 2020.

Alaska sends the four highest finishers in its nonpartisan primary onto the general election – all but ensuring that the general includes candidates from both parties and even independents or third-party hopefuls. In its November general election, Alaska uses an electoral system — ranked choice voting — that guarantees no candidate can win the race without being the choice of a majority of voters.

Here’s how it works:

Voters rank their choices, with votes being counted in rounds. A candidate who wins over 50% in the first round is the winner. Race called. If not, round two begins with the candidate who got the fewest votes in the first round eliminated. If the eliminated candidate was your top pick then your next-favorite choice gets your vote in this second round. This process repeats itself until a candidate wins a majority.

The Alaska model has proven itself in a state with a real independent streak: in 2022, it produced an independent U.S. senator, a conservative governor and a Democratic congresswoman. Variations of ranked choice voting are already being used in San Francisco, Oakland, Redondo Beach and many other California cities – offering an “instant runoff” that produces a broadly-liked winner from a crowded field. California is already ready to make the change: 57 of California’s 58 counties utilize voting systems capable of conducting ranked choice elections.

Moving to a top-four, ranked choice model would lead to a less negative primary as well. Under our current top-two system, Democratic candidates fight desperately for just one or two spots in November, often resorting to harsh attacks that tear down their own party. With a top-four, ranked choice alternative, candidates could instead focus on shared values and policy ideas, building coalitions rather than scorching earth.

Voters should have more choices. We also need a system that delivers representative results. A race with two Republicans likely isn’t it. But a general election that includes voices from across the spectrum and encourages candidates to build coalitions and draw support from everyone? That’s the winner.

One easy fix – going from two primary finalists to four and then using ranked choice voting in November – will make our elections stronger and give more Californians a voice.

Tom Charron is the co-founder of the California Ranked Choice Voting Coalition, a nonprofit working to expand the adoption of ranked choice elections in more cities and for state and federal elections in the Golden State.