A tough poll

Today was a teacher only day at my boys’ school so I’ve been out all day visiting grandparents., indoor playgrounds and rugby. Having now got home, I’ve seen that the monthly Curia poll for the TU has gotten a wee bit of attention.

I normally don’t blog on my own polls, or even mention them on Kiwiblog. But as this one is being discussed so much elsewhere, I thought it would be useful to share some thoughts.

First of all, yes it is a tough poll for National. When I ran the report on the data and saw what the computer spat out, I actually used an expletive. As someone who has been a member of the National Party for 40 years, I really hate it when one of my polls is bad for the party I support. But this is not the first time that has happened. I recall one evening when one of my polls in 2002 had National on 15%, and I think I reached for the vodka. Mind you, that poll wasn’t a public poll.

Secondly the poll shows the election is absolutely competitive, as every Curia poll since July last year has shown. No poll has had the winning group of parties on more than 63 seats – well within the margin of error. This poll has 61-59 to the CL. Last month it was 60-60. That is not a huge change. Next month it might be 61-59 to the CR. What is going to matter is how the economy goes over the next few months, how public services perform, and how well the parties campaign.

The poll has had many stories speculating on the party leadership. I generally do not comment or blog on these issues as I am not a member of caucus, and it can be unhelpful to have people associated with the party adding their 2c in. But as it has been such a loud conversation today, I will add in my 2c. This isn’t my view as a pollster, but as a political commentator and party member.

For my 2c I think National changing leader barely six months before the election would be a good way to guarantee a change of government, and would make a Labour-Green-Te Pati Maori Government much much more likely. The public wants MPs focused on making things better for them, not on themselves.

I’m actually very conservative when it comes to leadership changes. I didn’t think Bolger should have rolled McLay. I didn’t think English should have rolled Shipley. I didn’t think Brash should have rolled English. I didn’t think Muller should have rolled Bridges.

In politics, you sometimes get helpful poll results, and you sometimes get unhelpful results. Sometimes a poll can be taken during a particularly tough spell for a party, and sometimes during a good spell. People shouldn’t obsess over one poll result. What all the polls show is a very very close and competitive race for government.

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