From Ships to Drones and Missiles: Iran’s Dwindling Arsenal

 

Iran’s primary weapons against regional U.S. military bases and Israel are its ballistic missiles. Iran also maintains an extensive drone force and a navy, which it has used to attack shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and the Strait of Hormuz.

After just six days of conflict, however, Iran’s naval assets, missile stockpiles, and drone supplies are being rapidly depleted. And unlike the United States, Iran cannot replenish them while its production facilities and launch infrastructure are under sustained bombardment.

Some reports claim that as many as 17 Iranian surface ships and one submarine have been destroyed. Satellite images reviewed by BBC Verify indicate that a wave of U.S. and Israeli strikes has destroyed or damaged at least 11 Iranian naval vessels since Saturday, along with missile bases and nuclear-related facilities. Images from the Konarak naval base and the Bandar Abbas port facility, which houses the headquarters of the Iranian navy on the Strait of Hormuz, show smoke rising from multiple ships.

Among the vessels reportedly destroyed was the IRINS Makran, Iran’s largest naval ship, which had been converted to serve as a drone carrier. Satellite imagery showed thick smoke pouring from the vessel while docked at Bandar Abbas. Maritime security firm Vanguard reported that the IRIS Bayandor, IRIS Naghdi, and IRIS Jamaran were also destroyed. The firm further claimed that the IRIS Shahid Bagheri, a modern drone-carrier ship launched in 2025, had been sunk, although BBC Verify said it could not independently confirm that claim.

The commander of U.S. Central Command, Admiral Brad Cooper, said that 17 Iranian vessels, including the navy’s “most operational” submarine, had been destroyed. According to Global Firepower, Iran’s navy ranks 35th in the world. It is comprised of 109 vessels, including 0 aircraft carriers, 0 helicopter carriers, 0 destroyers, 7 frigates, 3 corvettes, and 25 submarines. The rest are small patrol boats and support ships. None of its submarines are nuclear. The Iranian navy relies on a fleet of diesel-electric attack submarines, including Russian-made Kilo-class, indigenous Fateh-class, and smaller Ghadir-class midget submarines designed for shallow-water operations and coastal defense.

Cooper said that for decades Iran had harassed international shipping, adding that there was currently not a single Iranian vessel underway in the Arabian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels may have been obscured by cloud cover or smoke in satellite images, or may have been struck at sea, making independent verification difficult.

Analysts cautioned that Iran still retains the ability to carry out unconventional maritime attacks using drones, mini-submarines, and vessels linked to its shadow tanker fleet. Analysts from MAIAR said Tehran could also deploy smaller fast-attack craft armed with anti-ship missiles if its larger warships continue to be targeted. Iran could also disrupt commercial shipping by mining key routes in the Strait of Hormuz or launching drone attacks on tankers and port infrastructure.

Satellite imagery also indicates strikes at facilities near Natanz, a key location in Iran’s nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency said the buildings struck provided access to the underground enrichment facility and that no radiological consequences were expected from the damage. The overall scale of damage to Iran’s military infrastructure remains unclear as strikes continue and Israeli attacks have also targeted security headquarters in Tehran.

Apart from the navy and its drone stockpile, Iran’s primary weapon of mass chaos is its missile cache. Iran was estimated to have had about 2,000 missiles before the June conflict with Israel and the U.S., during which it fired at least 500 missiles at Israel. After the conflict, shipments of precursors from China increased dramatically, suggesting that Tehran was scrambling to rebuild its stockpile.

In recent months, the IDF says Iran invested significant effort to restore missile production capabilities, manufacturing dozens of projectiles per month. According to The Times of Israel, as of the February 11, 2026 rally marking the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, the IDF assessed that Iran possessed approximately 2,500 ballistic missiles.

According to Adm. Cooper, Iran had launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and over 2,000 drones since the campaign began, as of March 3.

Although Iran is not launching missiles at the rate it did in June, it has still used up at least 20% of its missile stockpile already.

Iran’s ability to replenish its missile stockpiles is being greatly limited. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth explicitly listed destroying Iranian missile production as a core U.S. objective, stating, “Destroy Iranian missiles, destroy Iranian missile production, destroy their navy and other security infrastructure.”

The IDF struck multiple missile-production facilities in Tehran on March 2–3, including a production center in the Khojir area used for surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missile components, the IRGC’s main production center for solid missile fuel, and a chemical factory producing missile components and fuel.

The IDF reported destroying 300 Iranian missile launchers since the conflict began, consistent with an Israeli media report of a 70% drop in Iranian missile fire toward Israel. The combined U.S.-Israeli force has explicitly designed its campaign to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities before its own interceptor stockpiles are depleted.

Similarly, the Institute for the Study of War said the decline in Iranian missile attacks against Israel and the United Arab Emirates suggests that efforts to destroy ballistic missile launchers have been effective. Satellite images also show damage to multiple structures at the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and nearby government institutions, including the National Defence University and the Intelligence Ministry. Former CENTCOM commander General Joseph Votel said some strikes appear designed to weaken the regime’s internal security apparatus and its ability to control the population.

Iran is known for its production of drones and other unmanned systems, including aerial and aquatic vehicles. It developed a large fleet of UAVs, including the Shahed series one-way attack drones designed to be launched in waves to overwhelm air defenses or accompany missile salvos. Gulf News reports that the strategic logic was always quantity over quality, cheap enough to produce in large numbers but expensive for defenders to intercept.

Adm. Cooper reported that, as of March 3 Iran had launched more than 2,000 drones since the campaign began. Drone launch sites were listed as explicit targets from the opening hours of Operation Epic Fury on February 28. U.S. precision strikes specifically destroyed Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drone launch sites as of March 4.

The IRGC’s drone carrier IRIS Shahid Bagheri, Iran’s first domestically produced drone carrier capable of embarking up to 60 UAVs including Shahed-136 loitering munitions, was struck and disabled within hours of the operation beginning on February 28. This eliminated Iran’s mobile sea-based drone launch capability.

Iran retains a stockpile of medium- and long-range drones, but without point defenses being restored and with production sites under sustained attack, the ability to replenish fired drones during active hostilities is severely constrained.

This is fundamentally a war of attrition. The side that exhausts its arsenal first will be forced to the negotiating table. But the two sides are not absorbing damage equally — Iran’s military infrastructure, naval assets, production facilities, and leadership are being systematically destroyed, while U.S. forces, though not without casualties, are operating largely from outside Iran’s effective strike range and absorbing almost no damage in return.

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