How Timothée Chalamet could lose Oscar, even if Kylie Jenner stays away

There were two big signs at the 2026 Actor Awards Sunday night suggesting that Timothée Chalamet has overplayed his hand — and he knows it — in his campaign to win a best actor Oscar for his performance as “Marty Supreme.”

The first is that Chalamet brought his mother, Nicole Flender, as his date to the ceremony, instead of once again flaunting his relationship with reality TV star Kylie Jenner, as entertainment journalist Rob Shuter noted. But the second sign of Chalamet’s reportedly growing concernabout losing momentum in the race is the manner in which he lost the Actor Award in a stunning upset to Michael B. Jordan for “Sinners.”

When Viola Davis ecstatically announced Jordan’s name — instead of Chalamet’s — Chalamet tried to maintain a smile but “it’s a performance” and “the disappointment (was) written all over his face,” celebrity body language expert Inbaal Honigmanas said in a statement to this news organization.

It must have felt “like a gut punch” for Chalamet to not win on Sunday night, Honigmanas added. The 30-year-old has been the front-runner to take home the Oscar trophy on March 15 for much of this awards season. “Marty Supreme” also was a commercial and critical hit and scored nine Oscar nominations.

However, Chalamet lost at the BAFTA awards in London a week earlier, breaking a precursor-awards winning streak. Missing out on Sunday night’s Actor Award also is significant in that the trophy is given out by SAG-AFTRA, the union that represents Chalamet’s fellow actors in Hollywood. These actors also could have a say in which lead and supporting actors prevail at the Oscars, said film and media critic John Campea.

It’s also questionable whether Chalamet would have received a standing ovation Sunday night, as was the case for Jordan as the longtime Ryan Coogler collaborator made his way to the stage at the Shrine Auditorium in Los Angeles. Campea said the standing ovation showed the high regard that Jordan’s fellow actors have for him and for the challenging dual role he played in “Sinners,” Campea also said.

Meanwhile, Chalamet was left to hide his disappointment. He and the ceremony’s producers probably thought he was a lock to win, if for no other reason than he was given a prominent front-row seat in the auditorium, so that he could quickly get to the stage to take the trophy, according to cultural commentator Maureen Callahan on her The Nerve podcast.

“He was snubbed,” Callahan said. “And you know, this whole award season, all the messaging has been, well, they’re gonna give (the Oscar) to this kid. Like he’s gagging for it. So just give it to him.”

“Anyway, Michael B. Jordan won,” Callahan continued. “And he got a standing ovation, which was the crowd’s way of saying, (expletive) you, Timmy C. We’re sick of your (expletive).”

Those are pretty harsh words, but Chalamet has not shied away from letting Hollywood and the rest of the world know he’s eager to win — and that he believes he deserves to win.

When Chalamet began to promote the film, he seems to have been channelling his “Marty Supreme” character, Marty Mauser, wrote Deadline writer Marcus James Dixon in an analysis of why Chalamet and “Marty Supreme” have started to lose momentum. Marty is a conniving, hyper-ambitious ping-pong ace in the 1950s who goes to extreme lengths and sacrifices important relationships in his pursuit of table tennis greatness.

“Chalamet’s non-humble campaigning persona for Marty Supreme harkened back to when he won the Actor Award the year prior for ‘A Complete Unknown,’” Dixon wrote. Chalamet declared at the podium “he was in ‘pursuit of greatness,’ and that he wanted to be ‘one of the greats’ within the acting industry,” Dixon also said.

Prior to the release of “Marty Supreme,” Chalamet appeared in a faux marketing video that went viral. He was seen aggressively pitching outlandish ideas for how to get people to come see the movie. The actor also appeared on talk shows, seemingly in character as the arrogant Marty. “This is probably my best performance,” Chalamet said in one interview. “It’s been seven, eight years that I feel like I’ve been handing in really, really committed, top-of-the-line performances. … This is really some top-level (expletive).”

Such cheeky, out-the-box marketing stunts certainly helped “Marty Supreme’s” box office and were praised by Gen Z, but they could have been off-putting to Oscar voters, who still tend to skew older, Dixon wrote.

Once “Marty Supreme” successfully opened in theaters on Christmas Day, Chalamet downshifted to a more humble campaign approach, with heartfelt acceptance speeches at the Palm Springs Film Festival and at the Critics Choice Awards, Dixon wrote. The actor also notably thanked Jenner, his girlfriend of three years, for her support. “I couldn’t do this without you,” Chalamet said at the Critics Choice Awards in early January.

But after Jenner accompanied Chalamet to London for the BAFTAs on Feb. 22 — and he lost to lesser-known British actor Robert Aramayo for “I Swear” — she was notably absent at the Actor Awards on Sunday. Shuter said her absence was no accident.

For Chalamet, to bring his mother instead of his influencer girlfriend, a member of the polarizing Kardashian family,  “sends a message,” an awards insider told Shuter for his Naughty But Nice Substack. “It softens him. It reminds voters he’s a serious actor — not half of a celebrity super-couple.”

Shuter reported that there is “quiet chatter” that Chalamet’s high-profile relationship with Jenner has been overshadowing his “serious actor” narrative. So “the optics suddenly matter more than ever,” which is why he brought his mother, instead of Jenner, Shuter said. “This was about credibility. About craft. About getting the focus back on the work,” another insider told Shuter.

Back in December, Shuter predicted that Chalamet’s association with Jenner could be “the kiss of death” for his Oscar chances. In an interview on The Nerve podcast, he said, “You might win a People’s Choice (award) if you date Kylie Jenner. … There’s still a real snobby elite group that runs the Oscars. … These are the real filmy types and they do not take well to the Kardashians.”

But Jenner isn’t the only issue for Chalamet in the race, nor is Chalamet’s eagerness to win, according to Deadline’s Dixon. He brought up other factors that could be hurting “Marty Supreme” momentum. Director Josh Safdie was the subject of a report in the California Post that some in the industry see as part of an Oscars-race smear campaign, Dixon said. The report alleged Safdie oversaw a toxic and unsafe workplace environment on previous film set.

Meanwhile, co-star Kevin O’Leary of “Shark Tank” fame, who plays a millionaire who takes an interest in Marty Mauser, comes with political baggage, Dixon noted. He’s an avid supporter of the Trump administration and regularly trashes Democrats, potentially making it difficult for A24, the film’s studio, “to sell the film to left-leaning Academy voters.”