Capitol agenda: Democrats get their Texas dream scenario

Maybe, just maybe, this is the year Texas really matters.

While the outcome wasn’t shocking, the confirmation of a May 26 runoff between Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton confirmed the fears of many Republicans who now face a likely scorched-earth campaign that could seriously hobble the victor in November’s general election and drain resources from tough races in places like North Carolina and Maine.

Democrats, meanwhile, are seeing their dream scenario play out: State Rep. James Talarico has defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett outright in the Democratic primary, giving the candidate many strategists see as the party's best chance to finally turn the Lone Star State blue a clear path to November.

Tuesday’s results showed some surprising strength for Cornyn after he trailed Paxton, a MAGA firebrand, in most polls. The veteran senator is about a point ahead of the AG in the latest returns.

But for national Republicans, keeping Cornyn afloat will be expensive and will risk damaging Paxton if he ends up being their nominee. In the absence of a Trump endorsement for any candidate, Cornyn and his allies have already spent more than $100 million to take out Paxton.

The four-term Cornyn launched into the runoff Tuesday night by framing Paxton as an existential threat to the party — “dead weight” that could cost Republicans control of Congress.

“President Trump’s agenda hangs in the balance,” he said. “I’m proud to have supported President Trump and worked with him to help him achieve his goals in the Congress. If he’s nominated, there’s a high risk that Paxton would lose the Senate seat, taking five congressional seats down with him.”

Paxton reacted with a taunt over Cornyn’s big-budget failure to avoid the runoff.

“We proved something they’ll never understand in Washington,” he said, according to The Texas Tribune. “Texas is not for sale.”

Cornyn-Paxton wasn’t the only high-stakes drama in the Lone Star State. A quick round-up of the latest results from other races:

— Embattled GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales was forced into a runoff against gun influencer Brandon Herrera.

— State Rep. Steve Toth ousted GOP Rep. Dan Crenshaw from the seat he’s held for four terms.

— GOP Rep. Chip Roy is heading into a runoff with state Sen. Mayes Middleton for attorney general.

— Rep. Christian Menefee is less than 2,000 votes ahead in his uncalled race against Rep. Al Green, who has served in Congress for more than 20 years.

— Former Rep. Colin Allred is more than 10 points ahead against incumbent Democrat Julie Johnson in another uncalled Dallas-area race.

What else we’re watching: 

— Notable hearings: The House Oversight Committee will hear testimony at 9 a.m. from Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and state Attorney General Keith Ellison on the misuse of government funds. DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is back for a second day in a row of congressional hearings, this time in front of the House Judiciary Committee at 10 a.m. And expect fireworks when IRS CEO Frank Bisignano testifies before the House Ways and Means panel at 10 a.m.

— Senate’s decision day on Iran: A bipartisan resolution to rein in Trump’s Iran war is expected to fail in the Senate on Wednesday afternoon at 4 p.m.

But beneath the surface, support for the ongoing strikes is looking less than robust. Many Republican lawmakers are harboring private misgivings about the risks to American troops, global stability and their own political fortunes if the military campaign drags on.

Liz Crampton, Hailey Fuchs, Brian Faler and Meredith Lee Hill contributed to this report.