Oil prices, energy security, and foreign policy nuances dominate the Indian discourse on the crisis in the Persian Gulf
As the Middle East crisis escalates in the aftermath of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes, a cross-section of the Indian public has expressed its opinion on diverse issues that will impact the world’s most populous nation.
From energy security to the spike in oil prices and the intricate nuances of foreign policy, these are the voices that have emerged from India on a conflict that threatens to have wide-ranging global ramifications.
Oil Ministry
“We are continuously monitoring the evolving situation and all steps will be taken in order to ensure availability and affordability of major petroleum products in the country.”
The Opposition
Sonia Gandhi, Congress Parliamentary Party Chairperson
“When the targeted killing of a foreign leader draws no clear defence of sovereignty or international law from our country, and impartiality is abandoned, it raises serious doubts about the direction and credibility of our foreign policy. Silence, in this instance, is not neutral.”
Rahul Gandhi, Leader of Opposition, Lok Sabha
“PM [Narendra] Modi must speak up. Does he support the assassination of a head of state as a way to define the world order? Silence now diminishes India’s standing in the world. India must be morally clear. We should have the courage to speak plainly in defense of international law and human lives. Our foreign policy is rooted in sovereignty and the peaceful resolution of disputes –and it must remain consistent.”
Escalating hostilities between the United States, Israel and Iran are pushing a fragile region toward wider conflict. Crores of people, including nearly a crore Indians, face uncertainty.
While security concerns are real, attacks that violate sovereignty will only worsen the…
M A Baby, general secretary, Communist Party of India (Marxist)
“While we have differences with certain non-democratic measures adopted by the Iranian government, the murder of their Supreme Leader and other top officials by the Imperialist United States and Zionist Israel in violation of Iran’s national sovereignty and international law is utterly reprehensible and must be condemned in the strongest possible terms. When world peace is under threat, India should play a lead role in rallying all democratic voices together so that there is a cessation of violent attacks and countermeasures.”
“This will not stop with this. It will also lead to Pakistan. Turkey will also come into this. The larger plan (of the US) is to control the region and hand over the leadership of the region to Israel.”
Omair Anas, an international relations expert with a focus on the Middle East
“The impact of this conflict will reflect on energy prices. If this conflict [becomes] prolonged, there will be a crisis in energy supply as well as prices. So its impact is going to be [felt] on India.”
“India typically keeps 50 days of petroleum and product inventories at the refineries. So, it will be a few months before there is a physical shortage of oil. We would get affected almost immediately in terms of the higher prices.
Sanctions on Russia have to be eased off. Russia is the second-largest exporter of oil, and it is physically impossible to eliminate the 6/7 million barrels a day that Russia supplies to the global markets. So it is simply not feasible to have Russian supply off the market. The EU is going to face energy problems. Russian oil is going to be back in the market in a bigger way.”
Ajay Shrivastava, former Director General of Foreign Trade
“The closing of the Strait of Hormuz will have big implications for India. It will be difficult to reroute or replace that volume [of oil], especially for Asian economies, especially with sanctions on Russian oil. Oil prices could surge to $95 per barrel or even above if the war becomes protracted, he said. There are no other alternatives. If the war continues beyond a week, it will be really difficult times.”
“India has close ties with Iran, the UAE, Qatar, Oman, and many Gulf nations, and defines each relationship distinctly. India basically says we will maintain a relationship with each of you with a certain focus. The biggest question for India is that we have almost 9 million strong diaspora in Gulf region. To evacuate all of them will be completely impossible.”
Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Kpler
“India has around 100 million barrels of crude in refineries and defense strategic reserves. India has three strategic reserves in Vishakhapatnam, Mangaluru, and Padur. Usable volumes from that is 80-85 million barrels. So roughly around 30-40 days India has baseline reserves to cover if supplies are hindered. If push comes to the shove, Indian refiners might look to increase Russian barrels.”
Colonel (Retd) Rohit Dev, geopolitical expert
“As per planning parameters, India is comfortably looking at more than 60 to 75 days, where there should be no alarm.There are many Russian liners in the vicinity of India, which can cater to supplies of India, and it is already happening. From a 27-country bouquet (oil suppliers), which we had just a few years ago, we have enlarged our scope for intake from up to 40 countries.”