He’ll Need Some Luck, But James Talarico Can Win the Texas Senate Seat

Do Democrats have a real chance of winning a Senate seat in Texas this year? Probably not. But Tuesday night’s election results were the best possible outcome for the party, and they create the conditions for an upset.

In the Democratic primary, state Representative James Talarico got over 50 percent of the vote, thereby defeating Representative Jasmine Crockett without a runoff. The Associated Press, CBS News, and other major news organizations have declared Talarico the winner, even though Crockett had not conceded as of early Wednesday morning. Avoiding the May 26 runoff is a coup for Democrats. The Talarico-Crockett race was becoming petty and testy, particularly between the candidates’ supporters. Another two months was likely to get worse and became very racial, since polls suggest that Talarico is dominant among white Texas Democrats and Crockett among African Americans.

Also, Talarico is probably a better general election candidate than Crockett. I am always wary of “electability” conversations, because they often end up punishing candidates who aren’t white, male, and/or Christian. It is almost certainly the case that some Texas general election voters wouldn’t back Crockett because she is a Black woman. But Democratic primary voters shouldn’t discriminate against minority candidates in primaries because they expect other voters to discriminate against those candidates in general elections. Also, assumptions about electability are often wrong—as politicians such as Barack Obama and Raphael Warnock have shown.

But Crockett would have had some specific challenges in a general election. She became one of the more famous politicians in America by leaning into being a hyper-partisan Democrat relentlessly attacking President Trump and Republicans. That’s what I appreciate about her. After the 2024 elections, when so many Democratic politicians seemed cowed by Trump’s victory, Crockett was describing Trump’s authoritarianism forthrightly and defending liberal values. It was such a relief to have Crockett in Washington in early 2025.

I did not expect her to run for the U.S. Senate though. Being a vocal partisan Democrat isn’t the best way to position yourself for a statewide run in a Republican-leaning state like Texas. Talarico’s unifying rhetoric and style probably give the Democrats a better chance to win over some Trump voters, a necessity in the Lone Star State.

The other good news is what happened on the Republican side. None of the candidates, incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, or Representative Wesley Hunt, reached 50 percent. So the GOP primary will go on for another couple months, likely leading to more fractures in the party. Counting has not finished yet, but Cornyn is likely to finish a point ahead of Paxton. As of Wednesday morning, the senator was at 42 percent, Paxton at 41 percent. Hunt was third, ending his campaign.

Cornyn and Paxton both have advantages in a runoff. Far-right activists are more enthused about Paxton, but the Republican establishment in Washington is likely to spend heavily to boost Cornyn, who party insiders view as the stronger general election candidate.

Democrats should hope that Paxton wins. He’s the ideal opponent for Talarico. Calling the attorney general scandal-plagued would be way understating his issues. He has been indicted (but not convicted) for securities fraud; impeached by the Texas state legislature (but not removed from office) on bribery charges; divorced by his wife amid widespread rumors of extramarital affairs. If moderates and undecideds in Texas just vote based on partisanship, Paxton would still win of course. But if they consider the candidates as individuals, a 36-year-old Bible-quoting former public-school teacher against a philandering, corrupt 63-year-old career politician is about as ideal a contrast as Democrats could have wished for.

Also, the broader political environment is ideal for Talarico. Trump’s poll numbers keep dipping, even in Texas. His approval there is now around 45 percent, while around half of voters disapprove. The Democratic base is very fired up, and swing voters are turning away from the GOP, which is why Democrats have done very well in virtually every race across the country since the 2024 election.

Let me not oversell the Democrats’ chances in Texas. Democrats last won the presidential election there in 1976; their last Senate victory was in 1988. Even in 2018, when Democrats won basically everywhere, fairly unpopular Republican Senator Ted Cruz finished three percentage points ahead of then-Representative Beto O’Rourke, who generated the kind of liberal enthusiasm around the state that Talarico has. Trump won by 14 points over Kamala Harris in Texas in 2024. While Talarico seems moderate in tone, his policy positions are fairly liberal. So if most Texas voters just prefer conservative candidates (as election results for the last 50 years suggest), Talarico will lose and perhaps resoundingly. And if Cornyn wins the primary, Talarico would be an even bigger underdog.

The clearer path for a Democratic Senate majority after this year’s elections is flipping seats in Alaska, Ohio, Maine, and North Carolina.

But even if these primary results don’t portend Texas going blue in November, they provide important insights about each party. On the Democratic side, it’s striking that Talarico did not run in the mold of past Southern Democrats such as Bill Clinton and Joe Manchin, who touted their pro-business bona fides and more conservative stands compared to other Democrats on issues like abortion. Instead, Talarico emphasized populist and pro-democracy ideas, such as banning super PACs and members of Congress trading individual stocks. He has strongly defended abortion rights and was a leading figure in the state legislature opposing a provision mandating that the Ten Commandments be posted in every public school classroom in the state. During the primary, he didn’t distance himself from Black voters to signal moderation to whites, but instead worked hard to win over African Americans while conceding most of them would back Crockett.

Crockett and Talarico differ in persona, but they are both liberal Democrats who speak frankly about the radicalism of today’s Republicans. That’s what the Democratic base is demanding, both in Texas and around the country. Talarico won this primary in part because of his similarities to Crockett, positioning himself as a Democrat who will fight hard against the GOP, as the congresswoman does.

On the GOP side, that Cornyn could lose demonstrates how dramatically the Republican Party has shifted in Trump’s direction over the last decade. Cornyn is very conservative on policy, strongly favoring tax cuts for the rich and corporations. There is no real reason he should have a primary challenger. But he does not revel in mistreating people who live in cities, LGBTQ Americans, and other groups associated with the Democratic Party. Paxton does. He’s used the attorney general’s perch to sue out-of-state doctors for providing abortion bills to women and try to restrict transgender minors from getting health care that they want.

He was a leading figure in Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, even showing up in Washington on Jan 6, 2021.

And Paxton’s blatant disregard for ethics rules and traditional democratic norms is very Trumpian. In contrast, Cornyn is the quintessential Mitch McConnell Republican. That brand of conservatism is nearly dead.

If Paxton defeats Cornyn in the May runoff, Democrats have one of their best chances in recent memory to win in Texas. The downside is that if Paxton defeats Cornyn, the most likely outcome is that the Senate gets a new member (Paxton) who is a bit more conservative than Cornyn and way, way more corrupt and unethical. Perhaps Democrats can’t ever win Texas. But James Talarico in 2026 could be the Democrats’ breakthrough in the Lone Star State.