'Real shot': Data expert flags how Texas Dems could break their 30-year losing streak

Democrats haven't won a statewide race in Texas in over 30 years — but after an intense primary that ended with poll confusion drama and alleged voter suppression, they have perhaps their best opportunity in all that time to finally come through, political data analyst G. Elliott Morris wrote on Substack Wednesday morning.

"This year, Democrats might have a real shot at winning a statewide election in the Lone Star State," wrote Morris. "On Tuesday, March 3, Democratic primary voters picked state House Rep. James Talarico over U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett to become their party’s nominee for the November election to the U.S. Senate. On the Republican side, no candidate won above 50%, so incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26th runoff election."

Morris compiled together several reasons he is unusually bullish on the Texas Democratic Party this year.

For one thing, potential GOP frontrunner Ken Paxton is laden down with scandal, from marital infidelity to accusations of securities fraud, bribery, and abuse of power that even led a number of Republicans to impeach him: "The University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs found the same pattern across 12 hypothetical matchups last fall: Paxton’s average margin of victory was just 2.25 points, compared to 3.5 for Cornyn and 4.5 for Wesley Hunt."

For another he said, Democrats likely picked the stronger candidate to challenge him: "Across polls, Talarico consistently performs 1-2 points better than Crockett in hypothetical general election matchups across most polling. In the Emerson poll, Crockett loses to Cornyn by 6, while Talarico only loses by 3, and both tie with Paxton at 46% each."

All of this, he continued, is occurring as Democrats blew the roof off Republicans in enthusiasm and voter turnout, as the demographics in Texas shift to favor them more and more, and the GOP is hemorrhaging support with Latinos, who make up around 40 percent of the state's electorate.

To top it all off, Morris said, Donald Trump polls underwater in Texas, acting as an anchor on the party: "Historically, statewide presidential approval is a loose predictor of statewide midterm election results. It’s not perfect, but when the president is running at 45% approval in your state, the odds are better than not that you’ll lose the upcoming election."

Texas has consistently disappointed Democrats, Morris concluded, but this is perhaps the perfect storm to let them truly compete: "In a Paxton-Talarico matchup, the average poll today has the candidates within a point or two. The fundamentals — the midterm penalty, presidential approval, and enthusiasm gap — all push in Talarico’s direction. If Paxton wins the Republican primary, I’d rate the Texas Senate race a pure toss-up, with a 45-50% Democratic win probability."