Shipping earnings under pressure as Middle East crisis hits cargo flows

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is expected to increase volatility across the global shipping sector, as major operators suspend or reroute cargo flows following the US and Israeli strikes on Iran, end of February, according to an analysis by Morningstar DBRS.

The most affected trade flows are oil tankers, after major oil companies and tanker operators halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz following Iran’s blockade of the passage.

The disruption has already begun to ripple through tanker markets. Nearly 200 tankers on international voyages are currently at a standstill in the Persian Gulf, after the effective freeze in vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

The vessels, which are not subject to sanctions, are reported to be either anchored, tied up at loading terminals or moving at reduced speed, as shipowners and charterers await clearer signals on security conditions in the region.

The congestion is most visible in the very large crude carrier (VLCC) segment. Around 60 VLCCs are currently in the Persian Gulf, with 13 tied up at loading terminals, 33 anchored, and 14 moving at slow speeds while operators assess their next operational steps.

These 60 VLCCs represent nearly 8 per cent of the global compliant VLCC fleet, emphasising the scale of the disruption and the potential impact on tanker capacity and freight rates.

Pressure is also evident in the Suezmax segment, where 23 tankers remain in the Gulf, with five at berths and the remainder either anchored or moving at reduced speed while awaiting operational decisions.

The situation adds to uncertainty in the global oil supply chain, given that the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints for crude exports.

Analysts warn that a prolonged suspension of transits could trigger higher freight rates, cargo flow redistribution and additional geopolitical risks across energy markets.

Authorities in Cyprus are also closely monitoring the situation. Cyprus’ Deputy Ministry of Shipping said there are currently 19 ships under the Cypriot flag operating in the Persian Gulf, adding that both the vessels and their crews remain safe.

In a statement, the ministry said it has been monitoring developments in the region “from the very beginning” and remains in contact with the management companies of Cyprus-flagged ships operating in the area.

“There are currently nineteen ships under the Cypriot flag in the Persian Gulf,” the ministry said.

“Both the ships and the sailors working on them are safe,” it added.

The ministry explained that most of the vessels are permanently deployed in the region, mainly providing specialised maritime support services.

Developments are also being closely followed in Greece. Greek shipping minister Vassilis Kikilias said that attacks on commercial ships, strikes on three port facilities and one offshore installation, injuries to sailors and one reported death have already been recorded in the region.

The incidents do not involve Greek-flagged vessels or Greek interests, although a Greek-owned ship sustained minor damage and continued its voyage, he said.

According to Kikilias, ten Greek-flagged ships with 85 Greek sailors are currently in the Persian Gulf, while five additional vessels are operating outside the Gulf, and approximately 325 Greece-linked ships under foreign flags are present in the wider region.

The sailors remain safe and are in constant communication with authorities, he added, noting that the ministry’s operations room remains on continuous alert.

He warned that any closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have enormous economic consequences for global trade, while urging restraint in public statements given the uncertainty surrounding the duration and scale of the escalation. The protection of Greek seafarers in the region remains the government’s top priority, he said.

Beyond tanker markets, container shipping companies have also begun adjusting their routes in response to rising security and insurance risks. Several operators have already diverted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the Suez Canal and key Middle Eastern shipping lanes.

These developments come after a period of easing freight rates. Over the past year, the Drewry World Container Index fell by 32 per cent, dropping to $1,899 per 40-foot container from $2,795, reflecting disruptions in global trade and expanding fleet capacity.

Morningstar DBRS expects major shipping companies to report lower earnings in 2026, citing muted cargo volume growth and increasing industry capacity. However, analysts note that the pace and scale of the pressure remain uncertain given the evolving geopolitical situation.

“A prolonged diversion from key shipping lanes in the Middle East to the southern tip of Africa could limit available capacity and push up freight rates, while route suspensions could be a negative factor,” said Chloe Blais, vice president of European Corporate Ratings.

She added that pure tanker operators appear more exposed to disruption and volatility, while diversified shipping groups with broader operations and alternative revenue streams may be better positioned to absorb shocks.

The report also notes that insurance premiums and additional security measures are expected to raise operating costs for shipping companies in the current environment. Smaller carriers that rely more heavily on spot freight markets are likely to experience greater volatility than larger companies operating under longer-term contracts and hedging strategies.

Recent financial results already reflect pressures within the sector. AP Moller–Maersk reported that group EBITDA declined by 21 per cent, while Hapag-Lloyd posted a 28 per cent drop, largely due to lower freight rates despite increased cargo volumes.

Before the latest geopolitical escalation, Maersk had projected global container trade growth of between 2 and 4 per cent in 2026, while warning that expanding fleet capacity could continue to weigh on freight rates.

The company guided for EBITDA of between $4.5 billion and $7bn, a range that at the midpoint would represent roughly a 40 per cent decline compared with 2025.

Following the strikes on Iran, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM announced that vessels would be diverted away from the Suez Canal and rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, while many ships operating in the Gulf region were instructed to seek safe shelter as operators assessed the evolving security risks.

The report also points to structural changes within the global container shipping industry, where alliances and consolidation continue to reshape the competitive landscape.

The Ocean Alliance, comprising CMA CGM, China COSCO Shipping, Evergreen Marine and Orient Overseas, remains the largest operational cooperation, while the Gemini Cooperation between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd represents another major partnership coordinating liner services.

A third grouping, the Premier Alliance, involving Ocean Network Express, Yang Ming and HMM, remains smaller but strategically positioned across key transpacific and intra-Asia routes.

Consolidation in the sector is also continuing. In February 2026, Hapag-Lloyd announced plans to acquire ZIM Integrated Shipping Services in a deal valued at more than $4bn, a transaction that could further reshape the global container shipping hierarchy if completed.

The industry is already highly concentrated, with the ten largest shipping companies controlling more than 80 per cent of global capacity, reflecting years of mergers, alliances and operational partnerships aimed at improving efficiency and scale.

Fleet investment remains another defining feature of the sector. According to the report, shipping companies continue to maintain substantial vessel orderbooks, averaging around 30 per cent of existing capacity, as operators expand fleets to improve operational flexibility and diversify cargo capabilities.

Larger fleets allow companies to deploy different types of vessels, including container ships, refrigerated carriers and tankers, while adjusting sailing schedules and routes when geopolitical tensions or trade disruptions affect established maritime corridors.

However, analysts warn that this wave of investment also raises the risk of structural overcapacity, which could continue to place downward pressure on freight rates and industry profitability even as geopolitical disruptions temporarily tighten available capacity.

Despite the challenges, large global operators have generally maintained relatively stable balance sheets, with average debt-to-EBITDA ratios around 1.1 times among major peers in 2025, reflecting disciplined capital management across the sector.