What Anti-Regime Iranians Can’t Agree On

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In the days since the U.S. and Israel first launched strikes against Iran, nearly 800 Iranians, six American service members, and at least ten Israelis have been killed. Israeli forces took out Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, over the weekend. On Saturday, a bombing at a girls’ elementary school in southern Iran killed more than 100 people, most of them likely children, according to Iranian officials. President Trump said today that new strikes had targeted more Iranian leaders (some of whom may have been among the administration’s top picks to lead the country next). As the war continues, his administration has yet to offer a clear plan for how long the fighting will last and what will happen to Iranians after the fighting ceases.

Iranians’ lives have been upended, but their domestic struggles have long predated this latest war. I spoke with Arash Azizi, the author of What Iranians Want and a contributing writer for The Atlantic, about what Iranians hope for their country this time around and what it will take to get there.

Stephanie Bai: In January, shortly after the mass protests in Iran resulted in the massacres of Iranians by the government’s security forces, you spoke with Iranians about their hopes for their country. What have you been hearing from people in Iran after the recent strikes? Are they optimistic that a revolution could be under way, or are they concerned that the killing of Khamenei will turn him into a martyr and further entrench the regime’s power?

Arash Azizi: I’ve been in touch with Iranians, including my own family, several times each day throughout the past few months. I just spoke with my family members, some of whom are leaving Tehran for the north to escape the daily bombardments. In situations like this, just like we saw during the 12-day war with Israel in 2025, people prioritize staying alive more than anything else.

Naturally, many Iranians have hope that something better could emerge out of this. What else can they do but hope? Iranians are a diverse population in temperament, in politics, in goals. But I think I can speak for many when I say that they’re far too aware of the possibilities of a state collapse, of civil war, of the regime surviving, and worse. Even the most optimistic scenario of a democratic transition doesn’t look very easy.

Stephanie: President Trump has offered mixed messages on his postwar plans for Iran, but he was pretty clear about his regime-change intentions when he told the Iranian populace, “The hour of your freedom is at hand.” How would you evaluate the strength and unity of the anti-regime opposition in Iran at this moment?

Arash: The anti-regime Iranians remain divided. The idea that they could rise up in the midst of this war and stage a revolution and take power—it’s not based on reality, I think. And I speak as an anti-regime Iranian myself; I would have liked to see nothing more.

Stephanie: What are they divided over?

Arash: They’re divided over the kind of future that they want for Iran. I think we can agree, for example, on democratic elections, the territorial integrity of Iran, the creation of a constitutional assembly that decides the future of Iran. But there are divisions over whether Iran should be a republic or should restore a constitutional monarchy, whether we should be a federal state or a unitary state, as it is now. Some Iranians hail to the left and some want a return to the pre-1979 regime, which was authoritarian but much better than the current regime. If I sum it up, I can say that these differences over the past have tragically stopped Iranians from uniting over their future.

I have long been a proponent of national reconciliation among Iranians. But unfortunately, as often happens in dissident movements, Iranians have been much better at tearing one another down than finding points of commonality.

Stephanie: How do you foster national reconciliation in a country where people have such varying feelings about their own national history?

Arash: I think it’s entirely acceptable for people to have different takes on their national history. Every country’s history, recent or distant, will have these points of division. We should accept that we’re not going to have a shared view of what each historical point means, but we can find national consensus and a way to agree to disagree.

Surely, most Iranians want Iran’s GDP to grow. Surely, most Iranians want women to be equal citizens, not second-class citizens. Surely, most Iranians want the country’s environment to be safeguarded. A large majority of Iranians oppose many policies of the Islamic Republic—there is ample evidence for this. A large majority oppose many of the policies of Khamenei. So I think national reconciliation for Iranians will come when we remember that we do have a shared national future.

Stephanie: In January, there was a massive internet blackout following the protests. What’s the current state of communication in Iran, and how does this information ecosystem affect Iranians’ ability to mobilize right now?

Arash: It has made mobilizing quite difficult. There is somewhat of an internet blackout now, but it appears that the phone lines are more open than they were during the massacre in January: I personally have been able to call my family just to make sure they’re alive, and to make sure that our grandmother is safe. (Although she doesn’t like that we show so much attention to her—she believes she can take care of herself.) The massive internet disruption creates problems small and large. Communication among Iranians for any sort of activity, even something as simple as checking whether someone has their medicine, is disrupted. I am concerned that people will struggle to organize and find rides to leave their homes to go to parts of the country where they think they’ll be safer. Not to mention the economic issues—imagine how hard it has been for many to make a living because your job is closed, online shops are closed.

Stephanie: What kind of assistance do you think the United States would need to provide to Iranians to help ensure a change in governance that is both enduring and democratic?

Arash: First of all, not just as sort of a slogan: I firmly believe that you cannot achieve democracy in most conditions unless you’re in the driver’s seat. If the United States was interested in the democratic transition in Iran, what it should have been doing is getting Iranian democratic groups and opposition groups together. Help them build power. Tell them that if the U.S. works with them, they must unite with one another and with democratic proponents inside Iran. But frankly, that’s a moot point. There’s no evidence whatsoever that the Trump administration has shown interest in a democratic transition in Iran.

Related:

• “Our resources are done.”
• What Iranians want from Trump (From January)

Here are three new stories from The Atlantic:

• The one variable that could decide the war
• Pete Buttigieg in the wilderness
• “America doesn’t want my children or grandchildren.”

Today’s News

1. The State Department urged Americans in 14 Middle Eastern countries—including Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—plus the West Bank and Gaza to leave immediately, citing “serious safety risks.”
2. U.S. stocks dipped and oil prices surged as fears of a prolonged war with Iran rattled markets. Rising crude-oil prices are already increasing gas costs—the U.S. average is up 18 cents from last week, to $3.106 a gallon.
3. The first primary elections begin today in Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas, including a closely watched Democratic Senate race in Texas between U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett and Texas Representative James Talarico.

Evening Read

Why Iranians Are Weeping for a Tyrant

By Gal Beckerman

The Iranian state television announcer was gasping for air. I almost felt bad for him. That’s how hard he was weeping when he delivered the news of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s demise. He reached for a tissue, blew his nose. His cheeks glistened. This was not Walter Cronkite choking up for a second while delivering the news of John F. Kennedy’s assassination. The Iranian announcer was heaving.

In New York City, Masih Alinejad, a dissident who was targeted for death by the Islamic Republic, of which Khamenei was the supreme leader, burst out into the streets when she heard the news. “The dictator of my country is dead! He’s dead!” she shouted, wailing hoarsely. A stranger stopped to hug her—uncertain, surely, if she was experiencing joy or sadness, relief or exhaustion, or even if she was sane. On a street corner, by herself, she looked into her phone’s camera at her nearly 9 million Instagram followers, and cried and cried.

Read the full article.

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Rafaela Jinich contributed to this newsletter.

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