2026 NCAA Tournament Projections: Michigan State Surges, Big Ten Bubble Drama Builds

March has arrived, and no conference feels more volatile right now than the Big Ten. In his latest NCAA Tournament projections, FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy outlines a league defined by elite talent at the top and multiple teams clinging to at-large hopes. No team has surged more than Michigan State. Winners of four straight, the Spartans have climbed from a No. 4 seed to a No. 2 seed in DeCourcy’s latest projections. With a home matchup against Rutgers and rival Michigan on the road to close out the regular season, Tom Izzo's team has a chance to cement its standing as a 2-seed. Meanwhile, Purdue appears to be sliding. Matt Painter’s group has lost three of four, including a deflating loss to Ohio State this past week, which in return slid the Boilermakers down to a 4-seed in DeCourcy's latest update.Ohio State now sits among the "Last Four In," while Indiana is in the "First Four Out" after a loss to Michigan State. USC, which has now lost five straight and is dealing with the dismissal of leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara, has fallen to the "Next Four Out." FOX Sports' bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy offers up his latest NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament projections. EAST REGION SOUTH REGION MIDWEST REGION WEST REGION And it’s never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's projections, New Mexico, Ohio State, Santa Clara and VCU are the last four teams in the tournament, while Indiana, Auburn, Cal and Virginia Tech are the first four out. As for conference representation, the SEC leads the way with 10 teams, while the Big Ten has nine teams. The ACC and the Big 12 each have eight teams in DeCourcy's latest tournament projections. The Big East and the West Coast have three teams represented, while the Mountain West and A-10 have two teams. Selection Sunday is less than two weeks away, and these projections will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy’s latest bracket forecast offers a clear snapshot of who’s rising, who’s falling and which programs are already building the résumés they’ll need when March Madness arrives.