Big 12 MBB power rankings: Arizona is the clear No. 1 as Texas Tech rises, Kansas and BYU slip

Welcome to the Hotline’s Big 12 men’s basketball power rankings, a weekly assessment of the conference using analytics and common sense, with a strand of pasta occasionally heaved at the wall when mayhem is rampant. The power rankings will be published each Tuesday through the end of the regular season. (Here is last week’s edition, which looked at concerning developments for the conference in March.)

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(Results and NET rankings through Monday)

1. Arizona (28-2/15-2)

Results: won at Baylor 87-80, beat Kansas 84-61 and Iowa State 73-57
NET ranking: No. 3
Comment: You could argue the Wildcats are peaking at the right time, except they have been peaking for 114 of the past 120 days. Can they maintain the pace for the next 30? (Previous: 1)

2. Texas Tech (22-7/12-4)

Results: beat Cincinnati 80-68, won at Iowa State 82-73
NET ranking: No. 13
Comment: The Red Raiders are 3-0 since forward JT Toppin suffered a torn ACL (in Tempe). But it’s one thing to win in the regular season without your best player and quite another to advance in the NCAAs. We remain skeptical that Toppin-less Texas Tech can survive the second round against what figures to be a No. 5 or 6 seed. (Previous: 5)

3. Iowa State (24-6/11-6)

Results: won at Utah 75-59, lost to Texas Tech 82-73 and at Arizona 73-57
NET ranking: No. 10
Comment: The Cyclones’ substandard showing at Arizona was easy to predict given their brutal recent schedule: They were in Salt Lake City and Provo a week ago, returned home to play Texas Tech on Saturday, then flew to Tucson for Big Monday — on Senior Night for the Wildcats, no less. (Previous: 2)

4. Kansas (21-8/11-5)

Results: lost at Arizona 84-61
NET ranking: No. 15
Comment: The Jayhawks are 4-2 against Arizona, Houston, Iowa State and Texas Tech but have lost to UCF, West Virginia and Cincinnati by a combined 33 points. That inconsistency — magnified by Darryn Peterson’s mercurial existence — suggests they are as likely to win the Big 12 tournament as they are to lose their first game. (Previous: 3)

5. Houston (24-5/12-4)

Results: beat Colorado 102-62
NET ranking: No. 7
Comment: Admittedly, the Cougars miss big man J’Wan Roberts and his 10.6 points per game much more than we expected. He provided a consistent scoring option in the low post that balanced the offense. So far, freshman Chris Cenac hasn’t quite filled that role. (Previous: 4)

6. UCF (20-8/9-7)

Results: won at BYU 97-84, lost to Baylor 87-86
NET ranking: No. 46
Comment: The stellar victory at BYU was rendered moot days later by the awful home loss to Baylor. The Knights aren’t safely in the NCAAs just yet — not with two potholes remaining (West Virginia and Oklahoma State) and the anything-goes nature of the Big 12 tournament. (Previous: 7)

7. BYU (20-9/8-8)

Results: lost to UCF 97-84 and at West Virginia 79-71
NET ranking: No. 23
Comment: We fully expected a decline in offensive efficiency once high-scoring wing Richie Saunders was lost for the season (torn ACL), but the Cougars have been spotty on defense for months. Unless that problem is solved sooner than later, their stay in the NCAAs will be brief. (Previous: 6)

8. TCU (19-10/9-7)

Results: beat Arizona State 90-78, won at Kansas State 77-68
NET ranking: No. 45
Comment: The sizzling Horned Frogs remain in bubble territory with both their NET, their Pomeroy positioning (No. 49) and their wins-above-bubble ranking (42), which measures how a team fares against its schedule compared to how the average bubble team would perform against the same opponents. (Previous: 8)

9. Baylor (15-14/5-11)

Results: lost to Arizona 87-80, won at UCF 87-86
NET ranking: No. 51
Comment: Which double-digit seed has the best chance to reach the Big 12 tournament semifinals? The Bears would be atop our list because, unlike Oklahoma State, Colorado and Arizona State, they can score at a high level. (Previous: 10)

10. Cincinnati (16-13/8-8)

Results: lost at Texas Tech 80-68, beat Oklahoma State 91-68
NET ranking: No. 49
Comment: Will the Bearcats join Kansas State and Arizona State as schools on the market for a head coach this spring? That remains unclear. Wes Miller is doing his best to make things interesting. (Previous: 9)

11. West Virginia (17-12/8-8)

Results: lost at Oklahoma State 91-84, beat BYU 79-71
NET ranking: No. 58
Comment: The Mountaineers are tracking for the No. 8 seed in Kansas City, which would be quite the feat for first-year coach Ross Hodge given what he inherited. (Previous: 11)

12. Colorado (16-13/6-10)

Results: beat Kansas State 79-70, lost at Houston 102-62
NET ranking: No. 78
Comment: There’s no indication of a coaching change at CU, which tells you exactly where basketball fits on the priority list. Tad Boyle’s program isn’t funded at the level needed to compete in the Big 12, everyone who’s anyone knows it, and there’s no reason to expect better results with a different coach. (Previous: 12)

13. Arizona State (15-14/6-10)

Results: lost at TCU 90-78, beat Utah 73-60
NET ranking: No. 73
Comment: The roster resources and on-court results in Tempe are comparable to those in Boulder, but Bobby Hurley is on his way out and Boyle is (presumably) staying put. One difference: The Buffaloes won 26 games and reached the second round of the NCAA Tournament just two years ago. (Previous: 13)

14. Oklahoma State (17-12/5-11)

Results: beat West Virginia 91-84, lost at Cincinnati 91-68
NET ranking: No. 84
Comment: We are old enough to remember when the Cowboys were 16-6, reveling in a victory over BYU and in contention for the NCAAs. It was all the way back on Feb. 4. (Previous: 14)

15. Kansas State (11-18/2-14)

Results: lost at Colorado 79-70 and to TCU 77-68
NET ranking: No. 102
Comment: Honestly, we can’t think of anything remotely interesting to say about the Wildcats at the moment. Moving along … (Previous: 15)

16. Utah (10-19/2-14)

Results: lost to Iowa State 75-59 and at Arizona State 73-60
NET ranking: No. 123
Comment: Since Utah last reached the NCAA Tournament a decade ago, Utah State has been dancing five times and is on the brink of appearance No. 6. It’s a plot twist with many reasons but no explanation. (Previous: 16)

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