Live Nation antitrust trial begins: How the DOJ’s case against Ticketmaster could reshape the concert industry

After nearly two years of pretrial motions, opening arguments are expected to begin Tuesday in the Justice Department’s lawsuit against Live Nation. The case could have dramatic ramifications for the live events business—though that outcome is far from guaranteed.

The government alleges that the parent company of Ticketmaster has a chokehold on the concert ticket market, hurting both fans and artists. Live Nation denies that claim, arguing the market is broad and competitive, despite what the Justice Department contends.

The fight has been brewing for far longer than two years. Fans have voiced frustration since the 2010 merger between Live Nation and Ticketmaster, when live entertainment prices began climbing steadily. Here’s what you need to know about the trial.

What is the Justice Department claiming?

The Justice Department initially argued that Live Nation held a monopoly across multiple parts of the live music industry. The company generates revenue from fans through ticket sales and from artists through venue rentals—arrangements that allegedly locked performers into using Ticketmaster to sell tickets.

Last month, however, Judge Arun Subramanian dismissed the concert booking monopoly charges. As a result, the trial will focus more narrowly on claims that the company violated the Sherman Antitrust Act by forcing artists who use its venues to also use its promotional services, and by requiring other venues to sign exclusive contracts with Ticketmaster.

Live Nation denies the charges. “Calling Ticketmaster a monopoly may be a PR win for the DOJ in the short term, but it will lose in court because it ignores the basic economics of live entertainment,” the company wrote in a statement on its website, “such as the fact that the bulk of service fees go to venues, and that competition has steadily eroded Ticketmaster’s market share and profit margin.”

Could Ticketmaster and Live Nation be split up?

Technically, yes. Realistically, probably not.

While the DOJ is seeking a breakup, courts rarely force companies to split apart. That step is typically taken only when a judge is convinced no other remedy can address the harm.

Should the government prevail, a more likely outcome is that Live Nation would be barred from continuing certain business practices deemed anticompetitive.

Could this result in lower ticket prices?

That’s a bigger question. One of the biggest complaints from fans is the fees that are added to ticket prices. If the Justice Department is successful in abolishing Live Nation’s exclusive agreements with venues, that might impact prices, but there’s no guarantee.

Live Nation, for its part, says the case “won’t solve the issues fans care about relating to ticket prices, service fees, and access to in-demand shows.” The company maintains that ticket prices are set by venues and artists.

Is Taylor Swift expected to testify in the trial?

Sorry, Swifties: Taylor Swift is not listed among the expected witnesses, even though The Eras Tour ticket fiasco helped propel this case into the spotlight.

The overwhelming demand for tickets and the meltdown of Ticketmaster’s site left many fans empty-handed and intensified scrutiny of Live Nation—particularly after it delayed its general sale event. Fans were furious and directed their ire at the company, prompting greater government attention.

Kid Rock could be a potential witness against Live Nation, though. And other potential witnesses include Minnesota Timberwolves CEO Matthew Caldwell, Roc Nation CEO Desiree Perez, Live Nation Entertainment CEO Michael Rapino and Mumford & Sons keyboardist Ben Lovett.

When is a decision likely?

The trial is expected to last around six weeks. It’s a jury trial, so once the panel finishes deliberating, a verdict will be reached on whether Live Nation violated antitrust laws. If the government wins, the judge will determine the penalties, a process that could take additional time.

Should Live Nation lose, it can, of course, appeal the verdict, which would delay any court-ordered changes. And the parties could settle the case before it gets to the jury.

Could I get a refund for previous ticket purchases?

That depends on the states. If Live Nation loses, several states plan to seek financial penalties. The amounts vary. Michigan, for example, caps civil antitrust penalties at $50,000 per violation. In Florida, penalties can reach as high as $1 million.

Even if Live Nation loses, however, consumers shouldn’t expect to see any sort of refund for quite some time—and any payout would likely be modest.