Jefferies details its top 3 picks in the metals and mining sector set to get a boost from the war with Iran

• War with Iran has already rattled markets, with volatility hitting stocks and oil prices jumping.
• Jefferies said that the conflict could lift the metals and mining sector.
• Analysts also say the geopolitical upheaval is bullish for gold and aluminum.

Oil isn't the only commodity that will see prices rise amid the war with Iran.

According to Jefferies analysts, commodities more broadly could spike on the latest geopolitical upheaval, with some specific metals and also stocks in the metals and mining sector poised to gain.

"It has been our view that strength in metals & mining share prices over the past 6+ months could be attributed to elevated geopolitical risks, a structurally weakening dollar and the risk of inflation," the bank wrote on Monday.

Here are its top stock picks in the space and what it sees for commodities like gold and aluminum.

Top stock picks

Jefferies reiterated its bullish stance on the metals and mining sector, flagging Freeport McMoRan, Glencore, and Anglo American as its top stock picks in the space.

They also nodded to Alcoa as a possible top pick, depending on how long the war goes on.

Yet, the analysts went on to note that the conflict should lift the space broadly, laying out three impacts it sees from the conflict:rising costs due to climbing energy prices, supply chain risks, and an intensified need for strategic stockpiling.

Supply-disruption risk is bullish for aluminum

Aluminum is in focus as the Middle East has emerged as a major producer since the mid-2000s. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz or any major supply chain disruptions would directly impact the aluminum market.

Roughly 9% of global aluminum production is from Gulf states, which rely on the Strait of Hormuz for shipments, according to Jefferies research. The analysts also highlight that Iran alone accounts for around 3% of global iron ore production.

JPMorgan commodities analysts say that aluminum supply disruptions are a "major bullish risk" for the metal.

Stockpiling, meanwhile, could also prove bullish for copper, which recently saw an uptick alongside precious gold and silver in the latter half of 2025.

Gold gains as a safe haven

The price of gold jumped as a new geopolitical conflict reiterated one of the metal's big bull cases, which has helped it soar to records over the last year.

They acknowledged that a stronger dollar resulting from the war could keep a lid on prices, as the dollar and commodities tend to be inversely correlated, but said the bull case remains strong.

"However, we believe the geopolitical and inflation factors matter more than the stronger dollar for now, and commodity prices should rise as a result," they added.

JPMorgan analysts said that gold futures' positioning indicates a potential 5% to 10% upside in prices in the near term. They noted, however, that "Conflict-driven risk premiums in gold can be sharp but hard to sustain."