The Lion Roars Again
Israelis woke at 8:30 AM on Saturday to the sound of a nationwide siren. There was no imminent threat. It was the Home Front Command’s wake-up call to the nation that the Israeli military had carried out joint strikes with the United States earlier that morning against Iran, and to be on high alert for retaliation. (RELATED: Iran’s Fatal Miscalculation)
Shabbat morning rituals were put aside momentarily in order to clean out the in-home bomb shelters of old furniture and storage items to make room for pillows, blankets, and cases of water. Public bomb shelters were unlocked and, as rehearsed last June, neighborhood residents claimed their corners and set up camp. (RELATED: America Visits Iran)
Thirty hours later, by the close of Sunday evening, Israel’s “Operation Roaring Lion” had decimated Iran’s missile and air defense systems, taken out top Iranian military and government officials, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and had established air superiority over Tehran. But not without fatal collateral at home. (RELATED: The Line That Held on Iran)
The opening “Genesis” waves of Roaring Lion on Saturday morning included about 200 Israeli fighter jets carrying out the largest military flyover in Israeli Air Force history, dropping hundreds of munitions on military targets in western Iran. The operation was carried out jointly with the U.S. military. Israeli forces focused on targeting Iranian missile storage, production, and launch sites and air defense systems, while the U.S. targeted Iran’s nuclear program facilities and the headquarters and command centers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Ayatollah’s regime.
The attack came on the heels of stalled talks between the U.S. and Iran, after Iran refused to agree to U.S. President Trump’s terms to dismantle its nuclear program, limit ballistic missile capabilities, and abandon its sponsorship of terrorist proxy groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. Since the so-called 12-Day war last June, Iran continued to advance and conceal its remaining nuclear assets, rehabilitate its missile arsenal (with the help of Russia and China), and finance, train, and arm regional proxies. (RELATED: When Will the U.S. Strike Iran?)
Waves of Israeli and U.S. air strikes against Iran continued throughout Saturday night and into Sunday. By Sunday evening, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) had achieved complete air superiority over Tehran and had switched from deploying “standoff weapons,” such as guided missiles launched from a distance, to “stand-in” air-to-surface weapons for operating inside enemy airspace.
In roughly 30 hours, the IAF had carried out 700 sorties and dropped over 2,000 munitions — around half of what was used in the entire 12-Day war in June — and could confirm the kills of numerous senior-level officials in the IRGC, and in the government, including Khamenei.
The Israeli Defense Minister, Israel Katz, stated that “the tyrant Khamenei was eliminated in the opening strike of Operation Roaring Lion, along with other senior figures in the Iranian terror regime’s stronghold.” Iranian state television also confirmed the elimination of the Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh, and Commander of the IRGC, Mohammad Pakpour.
Toppling the regime’s leadership “will create the conditions for the brave Iranian people to take their destiny into their own hands,” stated Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “The time has come for all parts of the people of Iran … to cast off the yoke of tyranny and bring about a free and peace-seeking Iran.” (RELATED: Why Iranians Have Unified Around Reza Pahlavi)
The president went on to affirm that “this is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country.”
Trump posted that Khomenei “was unable to avoid our intelligence and highly sophisticated tracking systems and, working, closely with Israel, there was nothing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do.” The president went on to affirm that “this is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their country.” (RELATED: Ten Thoughts on Operation Epic Fury and Its Aftermath)
Iranian retaliation began almost immediately. A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera: “We are not surprised by the joint American-Israeli aggression, and we have a comprehensive response with no time limit. There are no red lines after this aggression, and everything is possible, including scenarios that were not previously considered.” The official concluded by threatening that “all American and Israeli assets and interests in the Middle East have become legitimate targets.”
Repeated waves of missile and drone barrages against Israel, ranging between three and 20 munitions, started just before noon on Saturday, with reports of property damage from falling debris and shrapnel from the aerial interceptions.
The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) called up roughly 100,000 reservists as the conflict gained momentum over the weekend, to reinforce border security with Syria, Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank. The Home Front Command also mobilized roughly 20,000 reservists for search and rescue efforts with the anticipation of escalating Iranian missile barrages. By Saturday night, the Magen David Adom rescue organization reported that roughly 89 people had been injured, indirectly from Iran’s missile attacks, mostly while rushing to shelter or from effects of falling shrapnel.
By Saturday night, around 150 ballistic missiles were fired at Israel, and over a dozen drones. The IDF reported that some of the ballistic missiles were cluster bomb warheads, similar to those used last June. The warheads open on descent and disperse around 20 sub-munitions across a radius of around 5 miles. Many times, the cluster warheads can still actively disperse after the central missile has been intercepted, and cause significant death and damage, as experienced last June.
The first Israeli casualties came on Saturday afternoon. A direct missile struck a Tel Aviv neighborhood, causing extensive damage to about forty buildings in the vicinity. Most residents had evacuated to nearby shelters in time, but one woman, a foreign caregiver, was killed as she did not manage to reach the bomb shelter. The older woman she was caring for was later extracted alive from the rubble. On Sunday afternoon, another direct hit occurred in Beit Shemesh, a city near Jerusalem, killing nine people, injuring 27, and burying numerous others in rubble.
As promised, Iran’s reaction reached regional proportions. Iranian missiles and drones have been fired at U.S. and U.K. bases in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, and Oman, with civilian targets such as hotels and airports being hit as collateral. The Iranian Proxy terrorist group Hezbollah, in southern Lebanon, also attacked northern Israel on Sunday night. “Hezbollah opened fire; it chose to start a campaign. It will pay a heavy price,” IDF spokesperson Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin said as the IDF launched multiple attacks against Hezbollah on Monday morning across Lebanon and in Beirut.
Monday afternoon was relatively calm compared to the weekend. But whether this should be perceived as a shifting tide in the war or a calm before the storm is too early to tell.
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