Wily Netanyahu, Simple Trump

Donald Trump is not just Binyamin Netanyahu’s glove puppet, but it is remarkable how much influence the Israeli prime minister has over the American president. If you are seeking a reason why Trump felt the need to attack Iran again only nine months after he declared that he had eliminated any nuclear threat from that country, you need look no further.

Trump has a helpless fascination for decisive political strongmen like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, but only Netanyahu has persuaded Trump to go to war for him – not once, but twice. Last June it was only one day’s air strikes on Iran, but this time it could be the start of a ‘forever war’.

Trump is well aware of this risk. It’s precisely what he promised to avoid in his 2024 presidential campaign, and he imagines that he can keep that promise by achieving a swift and decisive victory over Iran like his recent triumph in Venezuela.

However, even that was not much of a victory. Killing Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is no more decisive than kidnaping Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro. In both cases, the political system simply moves the regime’s next most senior leader up into the presidency, leaving the oppressive system intact. And, in Iran’s case, still able to fight.

True, Iran’s offensive capability is very small. It could not successfully stage a ground invasion of any of its neighbours, and most of its ballistic missiles and drones get shot down. But if neither Netanyahu nor Trump will put ‘boots on the ground’ (they won’t), it can hang on indefinitely.

Trump clings to the delusion that he can get a quick win and change the regime. Asked on Saturday who would replace Khamenei if his death is confirmed, Trump replied, “I don’t know, but at some point they’ll be calling me to ask who I’d like.” He’ll be sitting by that phone for a long time.

The Iranian regime is now hated by at least half the urban population (for last month’s massacres of protesters were almost all in the cities), but the shocking violence of those mass killings has frightened most people into silence.

Besides, the regime still has religion on its side and now it has nationalism as well, for Iran really has been the victim of an unprovoked and illegal attack. Russia and China will still trade with Iran and even sell it weapons. It’s hard to see how Trump can get a result that will justify the whole enterprise in the eyes of Americans.

Meanwhile insurers are starting to refuse cover for oil tankers attempting to enter or exit the Persian Gulf, cutting off one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and driving the price up. And if Netanyahu can arrange it, the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip will break down and the Israel Defence Force (IDF) will get on with the task of evicting the Palestinians.

It was probably Netanyahu who talked Trump into attacking Iran for a second time by exploiting the older man’s ignorance of strategic and technological realities. There was never an imminent threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, even before the American bombing of Iran nine months ago. Iran doesn’t even have a plausible delivery vehicle for its imaginary nukes.

Netanyahu may or may not have believed his own rhetoric the first time he got Trump to attack Iran last June, but it worked. After that there was no longer any credible Iranian threat. However, Trump was upset enough by the genocide in Gaza to force Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire there in October.

Netanhayu dared not defy Trump’s ban, and only 618 Palestinians have been killed by the IDF since the ‘ceasefire’. Now, however, after four months of trying, Netanyahu has persuaded Trump to attack Iran again, and this time it is a maximum effort (except ground troops) to overthrow the Iranian regime with Israel’s full participation. Why did he want that?

Well, if Israel and the United States are now allies in a major war against Iran, then surely Trump would not turn against his ally just because some unfortunate incident in Gaza forces the IDF to start large-scale killing and ethnic cleansing there again? Trump has been suckered again, and my guess is that we will soon see the Gaza ceasefire ‘collapse’.

Of course, it doesn’t hurt that there is an election due in Israel by October, and Netanyahu always does better in the polls when there’s a war on. On the other hand, the US mid-term elections are due in November, and Trump will not do well if there’s still a war on. Sucker.

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To shorten to 700 words, omit paragraph 8. (“Besides…Americans”)

Gwynne Dyer’s new book is ‘Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World’s Climate Engineers’.  The previous book, ‘The Shortest History of War’, is also still available.