Pac-12 MBB power rankings: Gonzaga, Utah State on top as seat heat increases for Washington State’s David Riley
Welcome to the latest installment of the Hotline’s Pac-12 men’s basketball power rankings, our weekly assessment of the reconstituted conference using results, analytics and a dash of common sense. The power rankings will be published each Monday through the end of the regular season. Last week’s edition examined the implications of San Diego State’s brutal week.
Oregon State became the first member of the new Pac-12 to initiate a men’s basketball coaching change, announcing last week that Wayne Tinkle won’t return next season.
Who’s next?
Is anyone next?
The prime candidate is Oregon State’s partner in Pac-12 survival, Washington State, where coach David Riley’s tenure has taken a turn for the dreadful.
The Cougars (12-19) are entering the West Coast Conference tournament — they face either Portland or Pepperdine on Friday — with a three-game losing streak and increasing skepticism that Riley is the best option for the program’s next era.
After all, the rebuilt Pac-12 should be vastly more competitive than the WCC, which serves as Washington State’s temporary home. In two years, Riley has posted a 15-21 conference record, and the Cougars have fared worse in the second half of league play than the first:
— Last season, they started 5-2, then lost eight of their last 11.
— This season, they started 6-5, then lost six of their last seven.
That might seem like a relatively small sample size. But the timeline for passing judgment has accelerated in the transfer portal era. Coaches can overhaul rosters in mere weeks and offer proof of performance in a single year.
Another factor at play in Pullman: There’s a new boss.
Washington State president Betsy Cantwell, whose tenure began last spring, is deeply committed to athletic success. That became clear in November, when she dismissed athletic director Anne McCoy (without cause), and again in December, when she cut a video message to WSU constituents asking for NIL support for new football coach Kirby Moore.
Would Cantwell make a coaching change knowing the candidate pool could be more difficult without a permanent athletic director?
Is moving into the rebuilt conference with a new football coach and an interim athletic director (Jon Haarlow) enough uncertainty for the moment? Or would Cantwell take on the additional disruption of a basketball coaching change?
The timing is precarious. The Cougars cannot afford to begin the new era at the bottom of the conference they salvaged, but the next edition of the Pac-12 should be more competitive on the court than the field.
Washington State must be strategic in its deployment of resources. If every last dollar is plowed into the football roster, both internally (through revenue sharing) and externally (through NIL opportunities), a basketball coaching change might not materially alter the program’s future.
Or perhaps Cantwell believes a different coach — someone with an ultra-shrewd eye for talent — is needed to maximize what little cash the Cougars have available relative to the top basketball programs in the Pac-12.
To this point, Washington State and Oregon State have followed similar paths.
Both schools will begin the next era with first-time football coaches. (The Beavers hired JaMarcus Shephard weeks before the Cougars picked Moore.)
Both have leadership issues, with WSU searching for an athletic director and Oregon State’s Scott Barnes under heavy criticism for a series of missteps.
And both are desperate for success in the rebuilt conference — in their rebuilt conference — knowing the competitive landscape is tilting away from Pullman and Corvallis.
The latest NET rankings reflect a daunting reality for the Cougars, whose placement (No. 135) is behind five schools scheduled to join the conference next season. A slow start in the next era could set the course for years of irrelevance.
Given that backdrop, Washington State must assess not only the cost of a basketball coaching change but also the cost of the status quo.
To the power rankings …
(Results and NET rankings through Sunday)
1. Gonzaga (28-3)
Results: beat Portland 89-48, lost at Saint Mary’s 70-59
NET ranking: No. 6
Comment: The Zags are No. 16 in the wins-above-bubble (WAB) metric, which measures how each team has performed against its schedule compared to how an average bubble team would fare. That position suggests a No. 4 seed awaits — and potentially a showdown with No. 1 Arizona in the West regional Sweet 16. (Previous: 1)
2. Utah State (24-5)
Results: lost at San Diego State 89-72, beat Grand Canyon 74-69
NET ranking: No. 26
Comment: What if the Aggies lose to UNLV (road) and New Mexico (home) this week, then stumble early in the Mountain West tournament? We suspect they would make the NCAA at-large pool, but perhaps in the group of teams assigned to First Four games. (Previous: 2)
3. San Diego State (19-9)
Results: beat Utah State 89-72, lost at New Mexico 81-76
NET ranking: No. 44
Comment: The Aztecs are likely to miss the NCAAs for the first time since 2019 unless they win the Mountain West tournament, a task that is hardly insurmountable given their talent and the wide-open nature of the conference. (Previous: 4)
4. Boise State (18-11)
Results: beat Wyoming 72-62, won at Fresno State 69-53
NET ranking: No. 59
Comment: The Broncos are one of the toughest teams to decode. They swept New Mexico, which is one game out of first in the Mountain West, but lost twice to both Grand Canyon and UNLV and were obliterated by Utah State. (Previous: 3)
5. Colorado State (19-10)
Results: beat Fresno State 74-70, won at San Jose State 85-73
NET ranking: No. 88
Comment: The Rams have won seven in a row and, if nothing else, will carry momentum into their first year in the Pac-12 and their second season under coach Ali Farokhmanesh. (Previous: 5)
6. Oregon State (16-15)
Results: beat San Diego 92-82, lost at Santa Clara 93-72
NET ranking: No. 175
Comment: The Beavers hired a first-time head coach to lead their football program. It’s difficult to envision them doing the same with men’s basketball considering the candidates available. Then again, they have played the wrong cards often in recent years. (Previous: 6)
7. Texas State (19-12)
Results: beat Appalachian State 60-57
NET ranking: No. 236
Comment: With eight wins in their last nine games and the No. 5 seed in the Sun Belt tournament, the Bobcats are an unexpected candidate to help carry the Pac-12 banner in the NCAAs alongside Gonzaga and Utah State. (Previous: 8)
8. Washington State (12-19)
Results: lost at LMU 67-66 and Pepperdine 88-79
NET ranking: No. 135
Comment: In addition to their late-season fades, the Cougars are winless against Gonzaga under coach David Riley and have two double-digit losses to Washington, which hasn’t exactly been a juggernaut in recent years. (Previous: 7)
9. Fresno State (12-17)
Results: lost at Colorado State 74-70 and to Boise State 69-53
NET ranking: No. 139
Comment: The Vance Walberg era isn’t thriving, but the Bulldogs were in such disarray before his arrival that three seasons feels like an appropriate turnaround window. And this is merely Year 2. (Previous: 9)
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