Criminal Kingpin “El Mencho” Is Dead, What Comes Next? | CSIS

In “Criminal Kingpin ‘El Mencho’ Is Dead, What Comes Next?” (CSIS, Feb. 26, 2026), Henry Ziemer and Ryan Berg explain that while the death of CJNG’s leader, El Mencho, is a significant tactical success, it does not dismantle the cartel’s power. Through their line of questioning, they highlight that CJNG demonstrated operational resilience by responding with coordinated violence across multiple states.

CJNG has several possible futures that range from leadership consolidation to cartel fragmentation and escalating violence. For Mexico, lasting security requires territorial control and anti-corruption reforms, rather than decapitation strikes alone. Ziemer and Berg also assess that strong intelligence cooperation between Mexico and the United States reduces pressure for unilateral U.S. military action. Restoring internal security will require sustained cooperation, and governance reform will determine whether Mexico converts tactical gains into strategic progress.

Q1: The Mexican government carried out a significant operation against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG). What happened, and how did the CJNG respond?

Predictably, the CJNG responded to the death of their leader with violence and a show of force against the Mexican state… at least 20 states reported cartel activity and outbursts of violence coordinated by the CJNG… more than 250 ‘narco blockades’ along roads and important transport arteries… The scope of the CJNG’s reprisals was notable and serves as a fresh reminder of the power cartels wield in Mexico vis-à-vis the Mexican state.

Q2: What are the likely scenarios for Mexico and the CJNG moving forward?

Much depends on whether the CJNG can consolidate around a single leader, or whether the group fractures and enters a civil war… In the first scenario, the situation may revert to its status quo ante… In the second scenario, violence could spiral out of control…

A third scenario would be both preferred by the United States and best for Mexico as well. President Claudia Sheinbaum, emboldened by the success of the mission against El Mencho, may be encouraged to leverage the forces surged to multiple Mexican states and exploit the disruption to CJNG’s leadership… While risky, electing to continue pressing ahead in a moment of vulnerability for the CJNG could see Mexico make important gains in the fight against cartels.

Q3: What does Mexico need to translate tactical success into lasting security?

The elimination of a single leader, no matter how notorious, is not sufficient to unwind a group as wealthy, well-armed, and brutal as the CJNG… Countering this demands a sustained effort by Mexican security forces to not merely take out cartel leadership, but to take and hold territory formerly ruled by armed groups… Another key challenge for Mexico will be rooting out corruption and impunity… cartels like the CJNG routinely seek to co-opt or intimidate government officials… impunity remains a perennial issue in Mexico, where up to 99 percent of violent crimes go unsolved.

Q4: Has the killing of El Mencho meaningfully reduced the likelihood of kinetic action from the United States?

The probability of unilateral U.S. military intervention in Mexico has likely decreased with the death of El Mencho… Preliminary reports… signal strong U.S.-Mexico intelligence cooperation… The February 22 raid could also provide a template for future U.S.-Mexico security cooperation wherein the United States provides enabling intelligence while Mexico provides the boots on the ground…Although U.S.-Mexico security cooperation appears much stronger now… the present stability is predicated on continued progress in the fight against organized crime.

The post Criminal Kingpin “El Mencho” Is Dead, What Comes Next? | CSIS appeared first on Small Wars Journal by Arizona State University.