AP Decision Notes: What to expect in North Carolina’s state primaries
WASHINGTON (AP) — North Carolina voters will narrow down the field of candidates Tuesday in a competitive U.S. Senate race that could decide control of the closely divided chamber in November. Also on the ballot are contested primaries for U.S. House, state Senate and House and the state Court of Appeals.
Even before Republican Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement last June, North Carolina presented Democrats with one of few opportunities to flip a Republican-held seat in an otherwise difficult electoral map. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the U.S. Senate, and Democrats need a net pickup of four seats to win back the chamber.
A dozen candidates – six Republicans and six Democrats – are running to succeed Tillis. Tuesday’s winners will face off in the November general election.
The most prominent name in the Republican field is Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chair who has President Donald Trump’s backing. Also running are author and attorney Don Brown and conservative activist Michele Morrow, both of whom ran for other offices in 2024. Brown sought the GOP nomination in the 8th Congressional District, while Morrow ran a competitive race for Superintendent of Public Instruction. One former GOP candidate, Margot Dupre, will appear on the ballot, but the state Board of Elections disqualified her candidacy.
In the Democratic primary, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper faces five other candidates. Both Whatley and Cooper have far out-raised their primary competitors.
Congressional primaries will be held on a new map – the state Legislature drew new district boundaries in 2025 as part of Trump’s push to gain House seats through mid-decade redistricting. In the 1st Congressional District, which was redrawn to favor the GOP, five Republicans are running to challenge Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis. Laurie Buckhout, who narrowly lost to Davis in 2024, is running again and faces Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck, state Sen. Bobby Hanig, Lenoir County Commissioner Eric Rouse and attorney Ashley-Nicole Russell in the primary.
In the 4th Congressional District in the heavily Democratic Raleigh-Durham area, Democratic U.S. Rep. Valerie Foushee faces a primary rematch with Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, who placed second behind Foushee in a crowded 2022 Democratic field that included former American Idol star Clay Aiken. Allam has the endorsement of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.
Wake and Mecklenburg counties, home to Raleigh and Charlotte, respectively, have the highest populations in the state and tend to contribute the most votes in both Democratic and Republican primaries. Guilford, the third largest county with about half the population of Wake or Mecklenburg, also plays an important role, although it usually takes a backseat to Durham County in Democratic primaries, while Forsyth County tends to be a bigger player in Republican primaries.
Trump’s endorsement should prove to be a boon to Whatley in a state where the then-former president carried every county in his 2024 primary against former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Meanwhile, Cooper carried every county in his 2020 primary reelection bid and all but five small counties in his 2016 primary.
In the 4th Congressional District race, challenger Allam carried her home county of Durham – the largest in the district – in the 2022 primary against Foushee, while Foushee prevailed in Orange County and won by wide margins in the district’s four smaller counties. The newly redrawn 4th District still includes Durham and Orange, but it picks up parts of Wake and Chatham counties, while losing the four small counties where Foushee did best. If Allam and Foushee split Durham and Orange by similar margins as in 2022, the result in Wake could be decisive.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
In North Carolina primaries, the second-place finisher may request a runoff election if the top vote-getter received less than 30% of the vote.
There are no automatic recounts in North Carolina, but candidates may request one if the margin is less than 0.5% of the total votes or 10,000 votes for statewide races or 1% for non-statewide races. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is subject to a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Desk will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in contested primaries for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate, state House and state Court of Appeals.
Who gets to vote?
Registered party members may vote only in their own party’s primary. In other words, Democrats can’t vote in the Republican primary or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may participate in either primary.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of Feb. 21, there were about 7.7 million registered voters in North Carolina. Registered Republicans slightly outnumbered registered Democrats with both parties at about 2.3 million registered voters each. More than 3 million voters were not registered with any party.
In the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries, nearly 765,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary and about 619,000 in the Democratic primary. About 37% of the Republican primary vote and about 46% of the Democratic primary vote were cast before primary day.
In this year’s contest, more than 416,000 Democratic primary ballots and nearly 295,000 Republican primary ballots had already been cast as of Saturday.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2022 U.S. Senate primaries, the AP first reported results at around 7:50 p.m. ET, or about 20 minutes after polls closed. The last vote update of the night was at 12:25 a.m. ET with more than 99% of total votes counted.
When are early and absentee votes released?
Most North Carolina counties release all or nearly all the results from mail and early voting in the first vote updates of the night, before any in-person Election Day results are released.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 245 days until the 2026 midterm elections.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2026 election at https://apnews.com/hub/elections.