GOP voters, not congressional leaders, are poised to take action on Tony Gonzales

Most of the political world will be watching Tuesday’s Texas primaries to see who will match up in a blockbuster Senate race. But many House Republicans are instead keen to find out if Lone Star State voters are going to help them solve a big, messy problem.

That would be Rep. Tony Gonzales, the third-term Republican lawmaker who stands accused of having an affair with his staffer and pressing her for sexually explicit photos. She later died by suicide. Gonzales has denied the allegations, which have been bolstered by the release of text messages and interviews given by the late aide’s husband.

Neither President Donald Trump nor Speaker Mike Johnson have pulled their endorsements of Gonzales, which were made months ago. But a growing number of House Republicans are hoping he simply loses his race and rides off into the Texas sunset, according to interviews with more than a dozen lawmakers and aides, many of whom were granted anonymity to speak candidly about the sensitive situation.

What most don’t want, however, is for Gonzales to resign from Congress in the 10 months before a successor would be sworn in, given that his departure would imperil the ultra-narrow House GOP majority.

“Should he lose the primary, which a lot of us expect him to do, he'll probably just serve out his term,” Rep. Mike Haridopolos (R-Fla.) said. “People still deserve to have a congressman doing the constituent work, et cetera.”

Haridopolos, like other House Republicans, said the allegations against Gonzales are “very serious, to say the least.” He added, “I think the voters in Texas are going to speak pretty loudly. And I would guess that his days are numbered in Congress.”

Text messages that surfaced last week appear to show Gonzales engaging in explicit exchanges with the staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles, asking her for intimate photos and about sex acts. At one point in the exchanges, which POLITICO has not independently reviewed, Santos-Aviles told Gonzales the requests were going “too far.” She died in September after setting herself on fire in her backyard.

Gonzales told reporters last week he would not resign from office. “What you’ve seen is not all the facts,” he said.

A spokesperson for Gonzales didn’t respond to questions, including whether the lawmaker would provide the additional facts he referenced.

But what has emerged so far has been enough to cause enormous headaches for Johnson, who has had to contend with numerous crises relating to his barely-there majority.

Cobbling together enough Republicans to advance legislation is a day-to-day struggle for party leaders, who can afford no more than one defection on party-line votes where all members are present. Absences and internal dissent from lawmakers mean controversial votes are a constant tightrope for the GOP.

Asked Tuesday if Gonzales should be running for reelection, Johnson declined to say. “I haven’t met with him yet,” he replied. A day later, Johnson told reporters he still hadn’t met with Gonzales but suggested his fate was in the hands of Texas primary voters.

Trump notably left Gonzales out of a social media blitz Friday morning, where he cheered his endorsements in nearly every other race in the state. When Gonzales attended a Trump event in Texas later that day, the president did recognize his presence — but the White House “didn't invite him specifically,” according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter. Rather, the “event was just open.”

Gonzales’ Republican challenger, Brandon Herrera, said in an interview he hasn’t talked to any GOP leaders or the NRCC about the race. He has, though, spoken to some hard-line House Republicans who have called for Gonzales to step down or end his reelection bid, including Reps. Chip Roy and Brandon Gill of Texas, as well as Anna Paulina Luna of Florida and Lauren Boebert of Colorado.

“There’s no accountability there, and I think he’s about to find accountability on March 3,” Herrera said of Gonzales.

Like other House Republicans, Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) said the allegations against Gonzales are “disturbing” and that “Tony has to answer a lot of questions.”

But he said it was up to Texas voters “to render a judgment” on the allegations against him.

Even if Gonzales loses his primary Tuesday — a real possibility not only due to the allegations, but also his narrow 354-vote victory over Herrera in 2024 — he would continue serving out his term as House Ethics investigators probe his conduct.

Whether the public gets a look at the results of the internal investigation remains to be seen. The Office of Congressional Conduct is expected to transmit its report to the Ethics Committee right after the Tuesday primary, but the panel could take weeks — more likely months — before producing a public report.

If Gonzales leaves office first, the report would stay secret under House rules.

Most House Republicans are avoiding weighing in on the allegations facing Gonzales, and on Johnson’s handling of the matter altogether.

“It's not something I've dedicated much thought to,” Rep. Dave Taylor (R-Ohio) said.

But even if Gonzales loses Tuesday, his presence in the House GOP could be a source of heartburn for party leaders.

A small group of House Republicans — most of them women — already want to force action against Gonzales. Luna and others are mulling a censure resolution against the Texas Republican. Luna said she might also try to strip Gonzales of his coveted assignment to the House Appropriations Committee.

“Too much of this has been brushed under the rug lately,” Luna said. “The American people deserve better.”

Luna said she hasn’t talked to Johnson about the moves, which could come up for floor consideration without leadership consent under House rules: “I don’t need to ask for his permission on anything. That is an archaic perspective that is not in line with the Constitution.”

Separately, Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), who has also called for Gonzales to resign, is vowing to force a vote on the House floor this week responding to allegations against the Texas Republican and other men in Congress who have faced misconduct allegations. Her measure would require the Ethics Committee to publicly release information on sexual harassment violations and alleged violations by members on a rolling basis.

While senior Republicans privately believe the effort will fail, Mace and some GOP allies are vowing to keep the spotlight on their colleagues’ alleged bad behavior — pushing for hearings and investigations.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), who chairs a House Oversight subcommittee, indicated Thursday he was prepared to pick up the baton and pursue the matter through his panel.

“I plan to move on it,” he said.

Jasper Goodman contributed to this report.