Brent crude briefly surged to a 14-month high as the attacks plunged the Middle East into renewed conflict
Global oil prices jumped by as much as 13% on Monday after intense US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered major concerns about global economic disruption. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already been heavily impacted as attacks continue across the Middle East.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, carries about 20% of global oil and gas supplies. Although Iranian authorities say it remains open to tankers, news reports indicate shipping is largely paused due to strike risks.
Brent crude jumped to $82 per barrel on the ICE exchange on Monday, marking a 14-month high amid the latest developments surrounding the passage, but has since retreated to around $79.5.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO) said on Sunday that two ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, while Oman’s Maritime Security Center reported a US-sanctioned tanker was struck off its coast earlier in the day.
Reuters reported on Sunday that at least 150 tankers, including crude and LNG vessels, were anchored in Gulf waters outside the Strait of Hormuz, with dozens more stationary beyond the chokepoint. The Financial Times, citing brokers, said insurers warned shipowners they would cancel policies and raise coverage costs for vessels transiting the Gulf and the Strait.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped 38-50%, according to economist Yegor Susin. He estimated potential oil losses at 200-300 million barrels if the disruption lasts four weeks, likely pushing prices temporarily to $80-120 per barrel.
Military strikes launched by the US and Israel against Iran on Saturday morning have showed no sign of lessening. US President Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the conflict could last for “four to five weeks,” stating that attacks will continue until American objectives are met.
The intense attacks have killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other top officials, including the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Tehran has responded with airstrikes against Israel and several Gulf states hosting US military assets.
In a further sign of regional escalation, Hezbollah has entered the fray by launching a series of cross-border attacks against Israeli military positions, prompting retaliatory airstrikes targeting the Lebanese armed group’s infrastructure and command sites.