What to Watch for in Operation Epic Fury
Before retiring from a teaching position at George Washington University last year, I ended each semester with a war game in which Iranian factions competed with each other to craft a response to an Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear program and an American proposal to end the crisis. The three decision-making elites consisted of the Supreme Leader and his Guardian Council, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the executive branch (President, Foreign Ministry, regular security forces, and the rest of the professional bureaucracy).
Over the course of 15 years, there were a number of outcomes, but there was one common thread; survival of each elite group rather than the nuclear program was the primary concern of the players. The graduate students had spent much of the semester researching the motivation and cultures of their assigned group and I think their reactions were well informed. When I retired last spring I knew that I would probably have had to change the scenario if I stuck around for another year. President Trump had made it clear that he intended to disrupt the status quo.
Now that Trump has made it clear that the desired end state is regime change, I think it is appropriate to look at how the regime and its factions react to developments. There are several things to look for. I will outline the key elements that will drive events.
The first and most obvious will be whether or not the Iranian street rises up to seriously attempt to overthrow the regime. Almost certainly the U.S. and Israeli attacks will attempt to disrupt the ability of the IRGC to control the streets in an attempt to protect the Supreme Leader and the ruling mullahs. The extent to which the IRGC can remain the nation’s primary security force will determine whether or not the regime survives. There is always the chance that if things appear to be getting out of control the IRGC will throw the ayatollahs under the bus and attempt to seize power on their own.
The U.S. did not expect the chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan.… Both Washington and Jerusalem are probably counting on it in Iran today.
A second development to watch will be how the regular armed forces and police react. For nearly five decades they have been overshadowed by the IRGC. In the 1979 revolution that brought the mullahs to power, the police and army largely stayed on the sidelines. If the Ayatollah and Guardian Council are overthrown or flee, the career bureaucrats in the executive branch will almost certainly try to form a transition government. The extent to which they succeed will be dependent on whether the regular security forces support them and whether they can stand up to what is left of the IRGC. Peaceful transition has worked so far in Venezuela, but Iran is an entirely different culture.
If the regime does fail, there will almost certainly be a period of civil strife. Certainly, elements of the IRGC and theocracy will go underground and begin an insurgency. Also near certain will be an attempt by non-Persian minority groups in the outer provinces to gain a degree of autonomy if not outright succession. The Communists and Socialists have been suppressed for decades, but will undoubtedly try for a comeback. Unless the regime and IRGC can hold on to power, the nation is almost certain to be in turmoil for months if not years.
All of this would be in the best interests of the U.S. and Israel. If Iran is trying to sort itself out, it will not be developing nuclear weapons or able to use proxies to stir up trouble in the region.
The U.S. did not expect the chaos in Iraq and Afghanistan two decades ago when it undertook regime change. Both Washington and Jerusalem are probably counting on it in Iran today. I’ve been putting together this article for months fully expecting that President Trump would bring things to a head eventually. It is not meant to be predictive; all conflicts contain unanticipated events. It is meant to give readers unfamiliar with the region something to watch for.
READ MORE from Gary Anderson:
American Muslims Must Acknowledge the Supremacy of the Constitution Over Sharia Law
ICE Should Adopt a Counterinsurgency Strategy
If We Want to Help the Iranians, We Should Disrupt the IRGC
Gary Anderson retired last year from lecturing on Alternative Analysis (Red Teaming at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and played on the Iranian side in a number of government sponsored war Games.