Texas primaries launch midterm battle with Trump agenda at stake

Some of the nation's largest states -- from Texas to North Carolina, Georgia and Illinois -- will pick candidates for the US Congress in March's first round of primaries, offering an early test of how both parties position themselves for Trump's final two years.

Those candidates will face off in November's midterms, which will decide whether Trump governs with a cooperative legislature or confronts a Democratic opposition able to block his agenda and open investigations into his administration.

The primaries will take place in the shadow of the US-Israel war on Iran, although it remains unclear whether the conflict – still in its very early stages – will impact Tuesday's voting.

For Republicans -- defending a 53–47 Senate majority and a razor-thin edge in the House of Representatives -- the central concern is avoiding polarizing candidates who electrify the party base but alienate swing voters in November.

"All eyes are on Texas," said Dan Scandling, of public affairs consultancy APCO, who spent a quarter century on Capitol Hill as chief of staff and communications director for Republican lawmakers.

"Republicans and Democrats both have candidates who many view as extreme and, depending on who comes out on top, could make either party vulnerable come November."

The entire House and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs in November, along with 39 state and territorial governorships.

Texas is set to dominate the opening night, with fiercely contested Senate primaries in both parties that have drawn national attention as a preview of broader ideological and strategic fights.

The Republican primary pits four-term Senator John Cornyn against state attorney general Ken Paxton, a hardline Trump ally who has cultivated support -- despite multiple ethics controversies -- by channeling grassroots anger at Washington.

Congressman Wesley Hunt trails, courting pro-Trump voters uneasy with both men.
'Stepping up'
Democrats, seeking a path back to power after Republicans secured unified control in Washington, are weighing competing approaches to ending a three-decade statewide losing streak in the Lone Star State.

Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett is running as a sharp, high-profile messenger who aims to energize turnout through viral clashes with Republicans, while state representative James Talarico is pitching a broader populist message to pull in swing voters.

Polling suggests neither primary is likely to produce an outright winner, increasing the chances of May runoffs.

Beyond Texas, the coming weeks include several contests with national implications.

Arkansas also votes Tuesday, alongside North Carolina, where Democrats are targeting a Senate seat they see as one of their best flip opportunities in November.

Mississippi votes the following week. And Georgia will stage a closely watched special House primary to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene, once among Trump's closest allies in Congress and now a symbol of divisions within the Republican base.

Illinois closes out the early calendar on March 17 with a Senate primary that will test whether Democrats lean into progressive enthusiasm or a broader, general-election style message.

Aaron Cutler, another former House staffer and head of congressional oversight at law firm Hogan Lovells, said he expected Republicans to align with Trump -- but warned that Democrats should take a more centrist approach.

"If progressive candidates prevail in Democratic primaries like we saw in New York City last year in the mayor's race, this could jeopardize the party's chances to appeal to the independent voters needed to win the general election," he said.

Caroline Welles, a veteran Democratic operative who focuses on getting women voted into state legislatures, said the primary season would reveal the extent to which the party had bounced back from losing the White House in 2024.

"Texas and Georgia, in particular, will signal whether new Democrats -- particularly women -- have been motivated to show up both on the ballot and at the ballot box," she said.