Iran’s Retaliatory Strikes Challenge Image of Gulf Stability
When the United States and Israel bombed Iran in an attempt to destroy its nuclear program in June last year, the Iranian response appeared calibrated to avoid an escalation that could spark a wider regional war.
This time, however, after President Donald Trump ordered a “massive and ongoing” campaign aimed at removing the Iranian regime, and following the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, it has been far less restrained.
Iran responded to the initial attack in the first hours with a barrage of missiles that struck U.S. bases and heavily populated civilian areas in U.S.-allied countries across the region.
Five-star resorts in the glitzy tourist areas of Dubai, apartment buildings in Bahrain, and international airports have all been struck by Iran’s missiles, the debris of intercepted missiles, or drones.
In Iran, the toll from U.S. and Israeli strikes is far higher. Iranian state media, citing the Red Crescent, said at least 201 people had been killed and more than 700 injured across Iran by U.S. and Israeli bombing. Among that number were more than 100 children, according to the state-run IRNA news agency, who were killed when a girls’ school was struck in the country’s south. TIME cannot independently verify those numbers.
But Iran’s strikes have shaken the Gulf region’s image of stability and safety, which had helped it cultivate investment, draw in expatriates, and attract tourism from around the world. That security was also the bedrock of many Gulf nations’ relationship with the United States.
Here is where Iran struck, and what capability it might still have to hit back in the days and weeks to come.
The first wave
The first wave of missiles, launched on Saturday morning, was directed towards Israel. Sirens sounded across northern Israel as the military told people to take cover.
“A short while ago, sirens were sounded in several areas across the country following the identification of missiles launched from Iran toward the State of Israel,” the military said in a statement.
By noon, Israeli media reported that around 35 missiles had been fired.
Later on Saturday, one woman in the Tel Aviv area was confirmed killed after being struck by falling shrapnel.
On Sunday afternoon, an Iranian ballistic missile strike killed eight people and injured about 20 in central Israel’s Beit Shemesh.
Israel is protected by an advanced missile defense system called the Iron Dome, which is the result of a partnership between the U.S. and Israel, and has been funded by more than $1bn of U.S. money. But in June, and in the last 48 hours, some missiles and drones can still find their way through the defenses.
U.S. bases targeted
Long before the strikes began, Iran promised to respond to any attack against it by hitting U.S. bases across the Middle East, which can be reached with its short-range missiles. In the days preceding the attack, U.S. forces began evacuating from some of those bases, including the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar.
Iran’s retaliatory attacks began on Saturday, with U.S. bases coming under fire in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia.
Video posted online showed the impact of a missile on the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. The country’s authorities confirmed the headquarters was hit by a “missile attack” in a statement. Authorities later said the country had been targeted by 45 missiles and nine drones.
Qatar, which hosts the Al Udeid Air Base—the largest U.S. base in the region— was targeted by 44 missiles and eight drones on Saturday, an official briefed on the attacks told Reuters.
Kuwait said its Ali al-Salem Air Base, which hosts the U.S. Air Force, came under attack by a number of ballistic missiles.
Kuwaiti authorities said its air defenses intercepted 97 ballistic missiles and 283 drones. One person was killed and more than 30 were injured — all of them foreign nationals.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a letter to the United Nations Security Council on Saturday that “all bases, facilities, and assets of the hostile forces in the region shall be regarded as legitimate military objectives.”
Gulf allies shaken
Beyond military targets, Iran’s missiles and drones were able to strike civilian areas of U.S. allies across the Gulf—countries that have for years avoided significant blowback from Iran’s brinkmanship with Israel and the U.S.
In a statement posted on social media Sunday, U.S. Central Command shared a list of all the locations it said had been struck by Iranian missiles and drones: Dubai International Airport; Kuwait International Airport; Zayed International Airport, Dubai; Erbil International Airport, Iraq; Fairmont Palm Hotel, Dubai; Burj Al Arab Hotel, Dubai; Crowne Plaza Hotel, Bahrain; Port of Dubai; Residential areas in Beit Shemesh, Israel; Residential areas in Tel Aviv, Israel; Residential area of Era Views Towers, Bahrain; Residential areas in Qatar.
Videos of explosions striking apartment buildings and swanky tourist areas appear to show that Iran is willing to impose a cost on countries that host U.S. bases and have opposed the Iranian regime for years.
One video showed a blast hit the Palm, the iconic man-made island and resort in Dubai, which attracts wealthy tourists from around the world. The government of Dubai’s Media Office has said an “incident occurred in a building in the Palm Jumeirah area” and four people were injured. Another landmark hotel, the Burj al-Arab, also caught fire after it was hit by falling debris.
The UAE’s Ministry of Defense said Iran had fired 165 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles, and 541 drones. It added that most were destroyed, but 21 drones hit civilian targets. Three people were killed, migrant workers from Pakistan, Nepal, and Bangladesh.
International airports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait were all struck by Iranian munitions, leading airlines to suspend flights across the Middle East.
Flight maps showed airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel and Bahrain virtually empty after the strikes began.
Videos purported to be from Bahrain’s capital, Manama, showed what appeared to be an Iranian Shahed drone slamming into an apartment building.
Saudi Arabia said in a statement posted by the state-run Saudi Press Agency that it had repelled a “blatant and cowardly” attack on its capital and its eastern region.
What comes next
While Iran has been able to achieve some symbolic strikes across the Gulf so far, it appears to have failed to land any significant blows on any of its adversaries.
The U.S. military said it has received no reports of combat casualties from the hundreds of retaliatory missiles and drones.
“Damage to US installations was minimal and has not impacted operations,” the U.S. Central Command said in a statement.
Iran fired hundreds of missiles in response to the U.S.-Israeli attack on its nuclear program in June last year, killing nearly three dozen Israeli civilians and wounding thousands.
During the 12-day conflict, Israel was able to degrade Iran’s medium and long-range missile program, attacking launch and storage sites, which removed some of the threat towards Israel, but not for U.S. bases in the region.
It remains unclear how much of its missile program remains intact, but U.S. officials had claimed before the launch of the campaign that Iran was rebuilding its ballistic missile program.
Iran once maintained a network of powerful proxy militias across the region that had the potential to impose significant damage on Israel, but two of them have been largely wiped out in recent years. Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon were largely destroyed in Israeli campaigns that began after the October 7 attacks.
Hezbollah, once Tehran’s most powerful ally, expressed solidarity with Iran on Saturday but was uncommittal.
It said in a statement that the U.S.-Israeli attack would “affect everyone without exception if left unchallenged”.
“We are confident that the American and Israeli enemy will receive a major blow,” it added.
One ally that remains largely intact is the Houthis in Yemen. The leader of the group, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, said his fighters were ready for “any necessary development.”
In a pre-recorded speech, he said the rebels “will take action in various activities” in solidarity with Iran, without elaborating.
“The Islamic Republic is waging the battle of the entire Islamic nation against American-Israeli-Zionist tyranny,” he said.