Iran’s Fatal Miscalculation
With Iran’s continued refusal to abandon its nuclear, ballistic missile and terror programs, the U.S. and Israel have launched massive pre-emptive strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Israeli Air Force’s attack, Operation Roaring Lion, used 200 planes to strike 500 targets in its initial salvos, marking the largest attack by the IAF ever. Timing was of the essence for such strikes, as reports indicate that Iran was rapidly trying to rebuild its Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities, and was also allegedly “stepping up production in non-traditional reactors, for isotopes to go into ‘dirty bombs’ at scale.” Additionally, yet another Iranian sponsored plot to assassinate President Trump has been made public.
Israeli officials claim that the Supreme Leader has been killed and his body found, following previous remarks by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating “[t]here are many signs that Khamenei is no longer alive,” though his condition at the time of writing remains unconfirmed. The U.S. had destroyed the Supreme Leader’s “palace” with a bunker-buster.
By attacking U,S. assets and allies in the Middle East in its most brazen attack to date, the Islamic Republic has signed its own death warrant.
Israel has killed Iran’s Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) head Major General Mohammad Pakpour, according to Reuters. Reuters further stated that “several” IRGC and Iranian officials were killed in the joint U.S./Israel strikes. Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to the Supreme Leader and an official linked to Iran’s nuclear program, may have been killed. Other U.S. and Israeli targets whose status also remain unknown are Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and others including Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh, Chief of Staff Abdulrahim Mousawi, and Military Intelligence Chief Salah Asadi.
In response to the U.S./Israel attacks, the Islamic Republic made a fatal error by targeting American assets in the region, and so many at that. Iran has attacked: the Al-Juffair Base and the U.S. Fifth Fleet Command Center in Bahrain; the U.S. base in Erbil in Iraq; the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan; the Ahmad Al-Jaber Air Base, the Mubarak Air Base and the Arifjan Camp in Kuwait; the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar; the Prince Sultan Air Base in Riyadh, the Khamis Mushait Base, the Tabuk Base, and a western base in Jeddah in Saudi Arabia; and the Al-Dhafra Air Base, Fujairah Air Base, and Ali Port in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This marks the broadest coordinated attack by Iran on U.S. bases to date. Not only that, the Islamic Republic has increased the chance of fatal pressure being placed upon it by closing the Straits of Hormuz.
And Iran was just as quick to remind the world that it indeed lives up to its moniker as the leading state sponsor of terrorism, striking multiple civilian sites, several of which appear to be deliberate, including: the Palm Jumeira resort, Atlantis hotel, Fairmont the Palm Hotel, and another area in close proximity to the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, UAE; the Kuwait International Airport; at least a couple of apartment buildings in Bahrain; an apartment building in Kuwait; and an intercepted ballistic missile fell on a residential street in Doha, Qatar. Iran killed at least four in Syria via ballistic missile, and at least one was killed in the UAE. And there are indications that Iran is using the latest confrontation to continue to commit war crimes against its own population, as reports indicate that Iran is moving ballistic missile launchers deep into the civilian population centers of Tehran.
The silver lining to all of this is that U.S.-supported air defenses appear to have largely thwarted the brunt of the Iranian attacks, as Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have reported successful interceptions.
The usual suspects of course oppose or otherwise equivocate on the U.S./Israel strike. France has called for an emergency session at the UN, and the EU called for “all parties to exercise maximum restraint.” Russia and Brazil have released statements opposing U.S. and Israel’s strikes.
But more interesting is the coalition against Iran that is already forming.
The Islamic Republic has managed to unite the Gulf States against it. Saudi Arabia issued a strong condemnation of the “blatant and cowardly attacks” by Iran on Saudi Arabia, noting that, “These attacks cannot be justified under any pretext or in any way whatsoever, and they came despite the Iranian authorities’ knowledge that the Kingdom had affirmed it would not allow its airspace or territory to be used to target Iran.” Such a statement shows that Saudi Arabia is re-evaluating its recent détente with Iran, in real time.
Saudi Arabia phoned UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Jordan, expressing support to those countries. Showing allegiance to the other countries attacked, UAE’s foreign ministry condemned Iran’s attacks on its territory as well as those of “the sisterly countries”/“brotherly nations.” Bahrain’s foreign ministry similarly condemned the attacks on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan by name. Qatar, long supportive of Iran diplomatically and an antagonist to the other Gulf countries, condemned Iran and expressed support to the other Arab countries attacked by Iran. Qatar also issued an additional, separate statement in support of Saudi Arabia.
And “Gulf-adjacent” states are also circling the wagons around the countries that Iran attacked. Syria has reached out to both the UAE and Saudi Arabia to express support. Lebanon, long held captive by Iran’s proxy Hezbollah, condemned Iran’s attack and supported the “brotherly countries,” also naming Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Jordan. Egypt called Saudi Arabia, with Egypt’s president “affirm[ing] Egypt’s support for the measures taken by Saudi Arabia to safeguard its sovereignty, security, and stability in response to the blatant Iranian attacks against the Kingdom today, which undermine regional security and stability.”
By attacking U,S. assets and allies in the Middle East in its most brazen attack to date, the Islamic Republic has signed its own death warrant. Previous issues facing the region, including the Saudi/UAE rift over the future of Yemen, Qatar’s self-imposed estrangement from the rest of the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia’s ill-advised détente with Iran will be put on hold. The Gulf countries, with most of the heavy lifting conducted by the United States and Israel, are now finally poised to neutralize the Islamic Republic once and for all.
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